MLB Best Bets for August 8: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas Tonight
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LT Profits
- August 8, 2025
We had a winning 2-1 night on Wednesday, bringing us to a solid 72-56-4 over our last 132 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s.
We return Friday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of two sides and one total. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
We give the road team with the young phenom the pitching edge in Pittsburgh Friday, so we are backing Chase Burns and the Reds when they visit Mitch Keller and the Pirates.
Burns Fulfilling Potential, Faces Weak Offense
Chase Burns was recalled with enormous hype on June 24th, and while the rookie is still winless at 0-3 with a bloated 6.04 ERA in seven starts covering 28.1 innings, do not let the ERA fool you. That figure is skewed by two bad starts where he allowed a total of 10 earned runs in six innings, but he allowed three runs or less in four of his first six starts and then pitched one perfect inning with two strikeouts Saturday before the game was suspended by rain.
More importantly, he owns an outstanding xFIP of 2.50 though the early going, keyed by his 47 strikeouts in his 28.1 innings, translating to a whopping 14.93/9 strikeout rate. It is easy to see why Chase is so highly regarded given his average fastball velocity of 98.3 MPH while topping 100 MPH at times, as well as a biting 90.3 MPH slider. That slider is rated 125 on Stuff+, and his two main pitches have helped produce a very nice swinging strike rate of 15.4%.
It looks like the sky is the limit for Burns, and he now benefits from facing a Pittsburgh offense that ranks second to last in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against right-handers at a paltry 83, ahead of only Colorado.
Keller Strikeouts Down, High Hard Contact Rate
Now, we fully admit that Mitch Keller is much better than his 5-10 record, as he has a 3.89 ERA and is 4-0 over his last seven starts following a 1-10 start. However, he still has some shaky metrics that have not improved that much even during this winning streak, starting with a 4.15 xFIP that pales next to his mound opponent tonight in Burns.
Mitch has seen his strikeout rate slip to 7.09/9 this season from 8.39/9 last year, with the current rate being a career low excluding the 2020 season when he made only five starts. Moreover, the K-Rate is validated by a very low swinging strike rate of 8.7%. In addition to that extra contact, his high hard-contact rate of 33.1% is at its highest point since his rookie year in 2019. Even Keller’s overall Stuff+ of 95 is down from 107 and 100 the last two seasons respectively.
And once he departs, the Pittsburgh bullpen is 20th in the majors in xFIP at 4.19.
We see nothing but positive regression for the top prospect Burns going forward given his raw stuff, while we also think Keller’s winning streak is Fool’s Gold given his metrics. Bet on the Reds at a reasonable road price.
Predicted Score: Reds 4 – Pirates 2
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
While Hunter Brown of the Astros has great overall numbers, he has been trending in the wrong direction as of late. This has us betting on promising rookie Cam Schlittler and the Yankees at home in this spot.
Brown May Be Hitting Wall, Faces Great Offense
Hunter Brown looked like a Cy Young Award candidate over the first few months of the season, and he still comes in with a 9-5 record, as well as ranking sixth in the majors with a 2.47 ERA and eighth with a 2.98 xFIP. He also has a career high strikeout rate of 10.65.9. However, he is on pace for a career high in innings pitched and he has not quite looked the same over his last five starts.
Hunter is 0-2 over those five outings with an alarming 5.00 ERA and 4.02 xFIP, and while the strikeout rate over this span is very good at 9.67/9, that is still nearly a full strikeout down from the season rate. Even his walk rate over those five efforts of 3.33/9 is up from the 2.68/9 for the season. But perhaps most damning is that his average fastball velocity in his last start of 95.8 MPH was a season low!
Now, he must contend with a Yankees lineup that ranks fifth in the league in wRC+ vs. righties at 114 and fourth in OPS at .770, and that is despite the recently returned AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge spending time on the injured list.
Schlittler Yet to Allow More than 3 Runs in Majors
Cam Schlittler is a top prospect that may be 1-2 in four starts since being recalled with a 4.58 ERA and 4.34 xFIP, but he has also allowed three runs or less in all four starts. Most encouragingly, his last start may have been his best despite taking the loss in Miami, as he allowed two runs (on two solo homers) on only four hits with six strikeouts against two walks in six innings.
Cam is a physical specimen standing at 6’6”, but he is rarity for someone his size with his ability to throw in the upper 90s. After having double-digit strikeout rates at every stop in the minors, he is now almost there in the Major Leagues with the K-rate at 9.61/9, and his impressive fastball velocity of 97.8 MPH may seem like 100 MPH given his release point due to his height.
But Schlittler is not a one-trick pony, as he also has a biting 90.3 MPH slider rated 116 on Stuff+, and an even better rated cutter at 120.
It appears that Schlittler has all the tools for success in the majors, and with him coming off his best start and Brown not looking like the dominant pitcher lately that he was earlier on, we are backing the Yankees in the Bronx.
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Astros 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We project a good old-fashioned pitching duel in Globe Life Field, so we are going Under the total when Merrill Kelly and the Rangers host Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies on Friday.
Sanchez 5th in ERA and xFIP, Texas Can’t Hit Lefties
The Phillies had high hopes for Cristopher Sanchez when they first recalled the southpaw in 2021, and he is now fulfilling those hopes with his best Major League season in his fifth year while approaching his peak at age 28. He enters this contest at 10-3 while ranking an identical fifth in the majors in both ERA at 2.40 and in xFIP at 2.82.
Those of you that have followed us in the past know that we love pitchers that can both strike people out and induce groundballs. Well, Cristopher fits that bill perfectly as he has a career high strikeout rate of 9.41/9 and he ranks fourth in the league in groundball rate at 58.4%! He has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game at 95.3 MPH, and besides generating groundballs, that pitch has also helped generate a very good swinging strike rate of 13.2%.
Sanchez only throws three pitches with the sinker accompanied by his slider and change-up, but all three pitches are rated 110 or higher in Stuff+, leading to a 114 overall rating. Moreover, he now faces a Texas lineup ranked 22nd against left-handers at 88 (12% below average).
Kelly Consistently Good this Year, Nice Texas Debut
Sanchez is not the only fine pitcher here though, as the recently acquired Merrill Kelly comes in at 9-6 with a nice 3.22 ERA and 3.60 xFIP. If you like consistency, consider that Kelly has allowed three runs or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season, and on each of the three occasions that he did not, he allowed exactly four earned runs.
Merrill was acquired from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, and he continued his fine year in his Texas debut allowing two runs on only four hits with six strikeouts and not a single walk in 5.2 innings in Seattle. While not quite at Sanchez’s level with the strikeout/groundballs combination, Kelly is also good at both with the K-Rate of 8.51/9 up from 7.70 last season and the groundball rate of 45.0% up from 42.5%.
Moreover, Merrill has the better bullpen support with the Texas unit second in the majors with a 3.31 ERA.
So, while Sanchez may be approaching elite status, Kelly has been consistently good also, and has a nice bullpen supporting him. Thus, we are betting on the Under in Texas.
Predicted Score: Rangers 3 – Phillies 2
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
