MLB Best Bets for August 6: Rays to Shine Over Angels Wednesday Afternoon
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LT Profits
- August 6, 2025
We return Wednesday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And again, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one side and two totals. Our action starts relatively early, with the first game scheduled for 4:07 pm ET.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 06, 2025 – 4:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
In a matchup between two pitchers with a vast differential in their metrics, we are backing Shane Baz and the Rays as small road favorites over Tyler Anderson and the Angels.
Baz with Nice Strikeout Rate and Good xFIP
Baz comes in with a .500 record at 8-8 and a 4.79 ERA, but his metrics paint a much rosier picture, beginning with his xFIP being nearly a full run better at a good 3.90. Yes, he allowed five runs in five innings last time out, but that was against a great Dodgers’ lineup, and he still allowed three runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts. He is also facing a less formidable foe today, with the Angels ranked 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Shane throws gas with his average fastball velocity at 96.8 MPH, and he has also incorporated a great knuckle-curve rated a lofty 126 on Stuff+ 27.6% of the time this season. That mix of two very different pitches has led to a nice strikeout rate of 9.00/9 and a very good groundball rate of 48.3%, which is a combination we always like to see. The addition of the knuckle-curve has also led to a 2% increase in his soft contact rate since last season, to 16.2% from 14.2%.
Once Baz departs, he has the support of a Tampa Bay bullpen that now leads the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.80, to go along with a 3.74 ERA.
Anderson Struggles in Last 5 Starts, Long Ball Troubles Persist
The southpaw Anderson is now 35 years old, and he has seen better days. He enters with a record of 2-7 and a 4.49 ERA, and his poor xFIP of 5.24 is the worst in baseball among qualified pitchers. He has now gone five straight starts without a Quality Start, and he struggled against the team with the worst record in the American League in the White Sox last time out, taking the loss while allowing four earned runs in six innings.
It is rather easy to see why the xFIP is so terrible, as Tyler has a weak K/BB ratio at 7.00/3.50 per nine innings, and he has struggled mightily with the long ball, with his home run rate allowed of 1.75/9 being the second worst in the league. That is what happens when you have no pitch reaching 90 MPH, with Anderson’s fastball averaging just 89.2 MPH.
Moreover, the Angels’ bullpen has been the antithesis of Tampa Bay’s, ranking 25th in xFIP at 4.39 and 26th in ERA at 4.87.
With Baz having the much lower xFIP in this matchup and Tampa Bay having the superior bullpen, we are betting on the Rays as small favorites with the perceived pitching edge from start to finish.
Predicted Score: Rays 6 – Angels 4
Athletics vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 06, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We foresee a sneakily low-scoring game in Washington, DC on Wednesday. So, we are betting on the Under with Cade Cavalli of the Nationals making his long-awaited return to the Major Leagues when hosting Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics.
Cavalli Looks Primed for Return After Tommy John
Cavalli was a first-round draft pick in 2020, and he climbed the ranks quickly, advancing to Triple-A by the end of 2021 and making his Major League debut in 2022. Sadly, he pitched just 4.1 innings before getting shut down with shoulder inflammation, and he eventually had Tommy John surgery in 2023.
Well, Cade is finally back in the big leagues after posting a strikeout rate of 9.97/9 in Triple-A this year, ending his time there with 13 strikeouts against just two walks over his last two starts while allowing two runs. More importantly, his reports are glowing as he is averaging 95 MPH with a top end of 99 MPH with his fastball, while also mixing in a two-seam fastball and a great curveball with late drop.
Those latter two secondary pitches have induced a groundball rate of over 60% this season, which, when combined with his power fastball, has us excited about his prospects in the Major Leagues.
Springs in Consistent Form, Nats Struggle with Lefties
Springs may not blow anyone away, but he has been consistently good this year, coming in at 10-7 for a team that is 15 games under .500, with a 4.00 ERA in 23 appearances (21 starts) covering 126 innings. And the ERA would be sub-4.00 if not for being unlucky with a 68.6% strand rate. Nonetheless, the ERA stands at a much better 3.32 since the beginning of June.
Jeffrey has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 outings during that time, and he is coming off perhaps his best start yet, as he allowed one run and just two hits with seven strikeouts against one walk on six innings vs. Seattle. One major key to his fine form since June is improved command, cutting his walks during this stretch to 1.52/9 with a Location+ of 102. That is in comparison to a walk rate of 2.86/9 for the season.
The southpaw also benefits from facing a Washington lineup with a wRC+ against lefties this season of 87 (or 13% below average).
So, with Cavalli returning to the majors with some hype based on his stuff in the minors and Springs pitching well with little fanfare with a losing team, we are going under in Nationals Park.
Predicted Score: Nationals 4 – Athletics 3
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, August 06, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We think this posted total seems inflated in Fenway Park on Wednesday night. Therefore, we are supporting the Under when newly acquired Dustin May and the Red Sox host Michael Wacha and the Royals.
May Makes Red Sox Debut Against Disappointing Offense
May has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point, posting a career 3.71 ERA for LA, so he is making his American League debut after being acquired by Boston at the trading deadline. And the frontline stats were disappointing this season, as he was 6-7 with a career worst 4.85 ERA and a marginally better 4.35 xFIP.
However, the news is not entirely bad. After missing all last season with a torn flexor tendon, Dustin posted a career-high strikeout rate for the Dodgers of 8.39/9 over 104 innings, well up from 6.38/9 when he last pitched in 2023. That improved K-Rate came alongside a good groundball rate of 43.8%, which is usually a combination for success. Thus, positive regression should be in order, especially when facing some teams for the first time in a new league.
Furthermore, his Red Sox debut comes against a disappointing offense that expected more entering this season. Instead, the Royals are 27th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against righties at 88.
Wacha Allowed One Run in Four Straight Starts
Wacha continues to defy some questionable metrics by continuing to pitch well. He may be 5-9, but that goes back to a lack of support from a sub-par offense, as he has a 3.38 ERA over 22 starts covering 125.1 innings. We are not fans of his 4.44 xFIP or his 6.82/9 strikeout rate, but not only has he fought off some expected regression, but he is also pitching his best baseball of the season right now!
Michael has allowed exactly one run in each of his last four starts, offsetting his lack of strikeouts with a total of five walks in those four outings. And to his credit, he does have a good soft/hard contact ratio for the season at 17.7%/29.2% with a wide six-pitch arsenal. Moreover, his swinging strike rate is surprisingly in double digits at 10.6%, so there is some potential for a bit of a spike in the strikeouts.
As suspect as we are about Wacha, we can’t knock his current form and contact ratio. We also see May regaining his old form in a new league, so bet on the Under in Beantown Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Red Sox 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
