MLB Best Bets for August 5: Here Comes the Judge for Yankees in Texas
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LT Profits
- August 5, 2025
We had a 1-1-1 split on Friday, still leaving us at a solid 70-53-3 over our last 126 Major League Baseball picks without any heavy favorites beyond the -130s.
We return Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of one underdog side and two totals. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, August 05, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We are not expecting a plethora of runs in Fenway Park on Tuesday night and are thus backing the Under when Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox host Ryan Bergert and the Royals.
Current Cy Young Odds have Crochet Second Choice in AL
The Red Sox acquired Garrett Crochet during the offseason to be the ace of their staff, and he has certainly fit that bill. While it is unlikely he will beat out Tarik Skubal for the American League Cy Young Award, he is the clear second choice currently on the betting odds as the only other pitcher in the single digits.
Garret comes in at 12-4 while ranking third in the Major Leagues in both ERA (2.23) and xFIP (2.68). And if you have followed us in the past, you know that we love pitchers that combine good strikeout and groundball rates. Well, Crochet is even taking that to the extreme, ranking fifth in the league in strikeout rate at 11.14/9 and 12th in groundball rate at 48.8%. He also has a great overall Stuff+ of 114 with four of his five pitches over 100 including a slider at 141!
In a nutshell, Crochet is legitimately one of the best pitchers in the game. and the southpaw is facing a disappointing Kansas City offense ranked 25th in the majors in wRC+ vs. lefties at 80 (or 20% below average).
Mechanical Change Has Made Bergert Effective in 2025
The rookie Bergert is making his Royals debut following his acquisition from the Padres at the trading deadline. After a disappointing year in the minor leagues last season, he made a mechanical change to his delivery by changing his arm slot while in Triple-A to begin this year. He then showed immediate improvement that carried over to his first taste of the Major Leagues.
Ryan Bergert appeared in 11 games for San Diego including seven starts, and while he was only 1-0, he posted a spiffy 2.78 ERA over 35.2 innings with a good strikeout rate of 8.58/9. He entered the Padres’ starting rotation on June 3rd after being unscored upon in four relief appearances, and he promptly allowed three runs or less in all seven of his starts! He struck out more than one batter per inning as a starter (9.09/9), with his new arm slot adding better movement to the fastball.
So, with Crochet being one of the best pitchers in the game and with the rookie Bergert showing nice promise with his revamped delivery, we are betting on the Under at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), with a projected final score of Red Sox 4 – Royals 2.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, August 05, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
We foresee a low-scoring contest in Atlanta on Tuesday and are betting on the Under when the improved Joey Wentz and the Braves host the solid Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.
Wentz Has Been New Pitcher in Atlanta with New Grip
Joey Wentz is pitching for his third team this season in Atlanta, and the combined overall results do not look pretty at 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 4.60 xFIP. However, he has been a godsend since being acquired by the Braves, allowing a grand total of three earned runs (all in one start) in four appearances (three starts), translating to a 1.50 ERA and a good accompanying 3.11 xFIP. He also raised his strikeout rate to 10.50/9 for Atlanta with a very good 12.6% swinging strike rate.
Best of all, this sudden improvement has much more to do than with simply a change of scenery. That is because Joey revealed that he changed the grip on his cutter after the Braves claimed him on waivers off the Twins’ roster last month. That certainly seems to track with the cutter rated at 105 on Stuff+ in an Atlanta uniform with increased usage.
That is an indication that Wentz’s improvement seems “real”, and only the fact that the Braves have mailed it in for the season is preventing us from declaring him a “play-on” the rest of the year.
Peralta as Solid as Ever and Faces Botton Third Offense
As for Freddy Peralta, while he has not lived up to the future superstardom label many placed on him when he entered the league, he has still been a very good Major League pitcher with a career 3.69 ERA and 3.82 xFIP over 880 big-league innings. And he is still going strong this year at the age of 29, coming in at 12-5 with a 3.08 ERA that would mark the second lowest of his career if it is maintained.
Freddy has also seen his velocity spike to a career best 95.0 MPH this season, leading to his typically very good strikeout rate of 9.60/9 along with a validating 12.3% swinging strike rate. And batters are not getting terrific swings even when making contact, given his good soft/hard contact ratio of 17.7%/27.0%. Furthermore, besides the heater, Peralta has two other great pitches per Stuff+ in the slider (115) and cutter (105).
He is facing an Atlanta offense that has now slipped to the bottom third of the league vs. right-handed pitchers, ranking an identical 21st in the Major Leagues in both wRC+ and OPS against them.
With Wentz in line for a strong rest of the season with the new cutter grip and Peralta as good as ever while facing a slumping offense, let’s go Under, with a predicted scoreline of Braves 3, Brewers 2 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, August 05, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
With the current favorite for American League MVP in Aaron Judge expected to be activated today, we are supporting Will Warren and the Yankees at a seemingly overlay price visiting Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers.
Warren with Better Location Lately, Judge Back Helps
Naturally, the return of Judge and his 37 home runs, league-leading .342 batting average and simply obscene wRC+ of 207 means great added offensive support for the entire pitching staff. And frankly, we are not as high on Will Warren as some others seem to be, as he comes in at 6-5 with a high 4.64 ERA, although to be fair, his xFIP is more than a full run better at 3.57.
Will does have a nice strikeout rate of 10.41/9, but our biggest issue with him is his poor walk rate of 4.15/9 that is the fourth worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. But perhaps he is starting to figure out those command issues, as his Location+ was at 105 and 108 in his last two starts respectively and he walked just one batter in his last outing while allowing only one run and six hits in six innings.
Warren is now facing a Texas offense ranked 25th in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 93 and 27th in OPS against them at .693.
Eovaldi Has Been Fantastic, But Is He Overpriced?
Now, let us start by saying that Nathan Eovaldi has been nothing short of fantastic this season, so much so that the Rangers paid him his All-Star bonus per his contract even after being snubbed. He is 9-3 with a 1.49 ERA that is the best in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings, as well as a 2.90 xFIP. Furthermore, he has allowed three runs or less in all 18 of his starts.
So, our issue is not with Nathan here but rather with the Rangers being a decided favorite over a vastly superior offense that now gets its superstar back. After all, he is facing a Yankees offense that did not tail off as much as expected during Judge’s absence, still currently tied for second in the majors in wRC+ vs. righties at 116. That is also combined with Warren improving his command lately, which would narrow the Texas pitching edge if it continues.
The bottom line here is that as much as we love what Eovaldi has done, the return of Aaron Judge to a lineup that remained great without him and Warren getting his walks down has us betting on the Yankees as underdogs at +118 odds with Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Rangers 3.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
