MLB Best Bets for August 3: Detroit’s Lineup Has Found Its Form
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Rainman M.
- August 3, 2025
We’ve got a 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, and four matchups stand out as worth investing in: Pirates vs. Rockies, Cardinals vs. Padres, Rangers vs. Mariners, and Tigers vs. Phillies.
Time to break down today’s MLB odds and hunt for the best value at the top sportsbooks.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Colorado’s Underrated Starter
Given his ERA, it might seem to make sense that, even at home, the Rockies are underdogs with Bradley Blalock starting for them.
However, Blalock’s ERA is as high as it is because of two starts that he made about two months ago.
Since he was called back up from Triple-A in July, he has proven to be a completely different pitcher. Hence, he has remained in Colorado’s starting rotation where he replaced Chase Dollander.
In his last three starts, Blalock has allowed a combined total of three earned runs. On July 12, he held the Reds to one earned run in 5.2 innings. His two previous starts since then, including one in mega hitters-friendly Coors Field, were at least as successful.
Above all, his command has improved drastically. He does a much better job of starting batters off with a strike, which, as statistics show, greatly increases his chances of succeeding in a given at-bat.
Relatedly, he has yielded one walk and zero home runs during this three-start stretch.
This improvement should not feel random or surprising: talented pitchers regularly play in Triple-A in order to use the opportunity of facing lower-level competition to figure things out. Blalock has clearly figured things out.
Rockies vs. Pirates Batters
Blalock throws a fastball, split-finger, slider, curveball, and cutter.
Heat maps illustrate his ability to locate pitches along the borders of the strike zone, which, in tandem with his low walk rate, attests to his precision.
He will thrive with his repertoire today against a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks dead-last with a .363 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Rockies Bats Are Ready
Mitch Keller, today’s starting pitcher for the Pirates, is well-known to Colorado batters.
Collectively, they bat .422 and slug .511 against him. Four different Rockies batters slug over .570 against him.
The Rockies have already scored 25 runs in two games in this series. Showing great form, they will easily produce enough runs to lead through five innings.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Andre Pallante’s Let-Down Spot
Don’t be misguided by recency bias today.
St. Louis’ starter Andre Pallante did look fantastic in his last start in which he allowed zero runs, but history shows that he always struggles after putting together such a great performance.
In the respective starts that followed one in which he allowed zero runs, he conceded four runs to the Mets, two to the Cubs, and seven to the Nationals.
When he allowed two runs to the Cubs, he barely managed to yield soft contact, doing so on 5.3 percent of his pitches. He benefited from a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and strand rate. His 6.10 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start shows how poorly he truly performed.
Dylan Cease’s Form
The total is as low as it is because of the strong reputation of today’s Padres starter Dylan Cease.
However, Cease has most recently been a consistently poor performer. He yielded an FIP of over 5.00 in five of his last six starts.
The one exception came against the lowly Nationals.
For some time now, he has been a pitcher who makes many critical mistakes, which are evident in his marked tendency to surrender walks and home runs.
Today’s Matchup
Cease must be expected to struggle again today against a Cardinals lineup that, collectively, bats .381 and slugs .571 against him.
Six different Cardinals batters slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
This is a group that already likes facing Cease and now gets a weaker version of him. They will succeed beyond just waiting for him to make mistakes.
San Diego’s lineup likewise enjoys facing Pallante, against whom it collectively bats .318 and slugs .455.
Both lineups will contribute to a high-scoring first five innings.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Bounce-Back Spots
Both starting pitchers will bounce back today from their most recent respective poor performances.
Jacob DeGrom is normally solid, having limited 16 of his last 18 opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
Expect him to buckle down and return to form after allowing two home runs in his last start.
He allowed a combined total of two earned runs in the last three respective starts that followed one in which he surrendered two home runs.
Logan Evans, today’s starter for Seattle, is likewise primed to bounce back today after his last start.
Evans allowed a combined total of three earned runs in the four respective starts that followed one in which he allowed three or more runs.
Extra Data
When Evans faced Texas back in May, he allowed six runs, but only one of them was earned.
He must be expected to thrive against a Texas lineup that ranks 27th with a .386 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
DeGrom is equally reliable in Seattle, where he boasts a 2.61 ERA in four career starts.
Let’s take the First-Five Under 4 at -120 with one of the top sportsbooks, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
“Guess Who’s Back, Back Again”
After suffering a terrible slump to start the second half of the season, Detroit’s lineup has rediscovered its form.
The Tigers have scored at least four runs in each of their last six games. They scored five or more runs in five of those games.
They scored seven runs yesterday even though their opponent’s starting pitcher was Zack Wheeler, who is known to be one of baseball’s best starters.
Detroit Bats Are Hot
Expect another strong output from a Tigers lineup that matches up well against Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez.
As measured by slugging rate, the Tigers are one of the best at hitting his pitches from lefties.
During their stretch of strong play, the Tigers are slugging .511 against those pitches from lefties.
Their lineup’s outlook is all the more solid today because Philadelphia has a weak bullpen. After two close games in the last two days, the Phillies’ best relievers have seen significant usage. Their bullpen anyhow ranks 24th. We’re rolling with the Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs at +100.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
