MLB Best Bets for August 26: Braves to Chop Up Some Marlins in Miami
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LT Profits
- August 26, 2025
We had a winning night on Friday going 2-1 including a nice underdog winner with the Nationals at +152. We are now a profitable 80-65-4 over our last 149 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. We are back on Tuesday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets today
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of two modest favorites and one total. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Braves ML (-120)
- Angels ML (-110)
- Padres vs. Mariners Over 7.5 (-125)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Tuesday, August 26, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
We are favoring a promising rookie with a seemingly bright future over a declining veteran in Miami on Tuesday, backing Hurston Waldrep and the Braves over Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins.
Waldrep Having Major League Success 2 Years After Draft
Waldrep was a first-round pick by the Braves in the 2023 MLB Draft, and here he is in the Major Leagues just two short years later. To say that he has not been bothered by the bright lights would be an understatement, as he is a perfect 4-0 while pitching for a team that is 13 games under .500 with a scintillating 0.73 ERA over 24.2 innings. No, that ERA will not last, but he is also sporting a nice 3.08 xFIP.
Hurston Waldrep has a good K/BB ratio of 8.76/2.19 per nine innings and an excellent groundball rate of 50.0%, a combination we always like to see. That combo is not surprising considering his heavy 95.7 MPH sinker, and when batters are not hitting those pitches into the ground, they are not hitting them at all given his 12.1% swinging strike rate. That is further validated by his extremely low 20.3% hard contact rate.
The one issue Waldrep had in the minors was with walks, but as mentioned he has kept that rate respectable so far in the majors with good ball placement, evidence by his Location+ of 107 to go along with an overall Stuff+ of 106.
Alcantara Still Not in Good Form Following Tommy John
Sandy Alcantara won the Cy Young Award in 2022, but it could very well be that his career high 228.2 innings that year did more harm than good. He blew out his elbow the following year necessitating Tommy John Surgery, forcing him to miss all last season. And, to put in mildly, he has been mostly brutal in this comeback year.
He comes in at 7-11 and could be considered lucky to even have seven wins, given his disgusting 6.04 ERA is the worst in baseball among qualified starters. He has a career-low soft contact rate of 11.8%, making for an ugly ratio next to his 34.2% hard contact rate. Also, his swinging strike rate is now in the single digits at a low 8.9% from 12.3% when he last pitched in 2023, helping explain the dip in his strikeout rate to 7.12/9.
Granted the Atlanta offense is not what it was in past seasons, but the Braves are having one of their better months against right-handed pitchers in August with a wRC+ of 105 against them.
We see this game as a matchup of two pitchers with opposite trajectories, with Waldrep having all the upside. Add the Atlanta offense showing signs of life and bet the Braves as modest chalk.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, August 26, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We think that the Angels have a bigger pitching edge Tuesday night in Arlington than these betting odds suggest. So, we are betting on Yusei Kikuchi and those Halos as small favorites over Patrick Corbin and the Rangers.
Kikuchi Striking Guys Out and Keeping Ball in Yard
Kikuchi is showing no signs of slowing down at the age of 34, and he certainly deserves a better record than 6-8. He has been a victim of poor run support, as evidenced by his 3.42 ERA and solid Pitching WAR of 2.5 through 27 starts covering 150 innings, and we do expect him to get better run support tonight (more on that later).
Yusei Kikuchi has four pitches that he has thrown over 12% of the time, with nice separation between his 94.9 MPH fastball and his second most frequent pitch, the slider at 87.4 MPH. That has kept batters off balance, resulting in a nice strikeout rate of 9.18/9. He has also kept the ball in the yard with a career low home run rate allowed of 1.14/9. In fact, he has allowed just three home runs over his last five starts, covering 27.1 innings with 26 strikeouts.
The southpaw can now take advantage of a Texas offense that ranks 21st in the majors in wRC+ vs. left-handers at 81 (19% below average) and 25th against them in OPS at a mere .647.
“Bad” Corbin Resurfacing and Angels Hit Homers
Until recently, Corbin was having a surprisingly effective season for a guy that many considered to be the worst starting pitcher in baseball over the last four years. In fact, he was sporting a 3.78 ERA and a semi-respectable 4.06 xFIP through the end of July. That was a far cry from a pitcher whose “best” ERA in the last four seasons was 5.20.
However, Patrick Corbin has regressed back to that horrific form during the month of August. He is 0-2 in four starts this month while allowing 17 earned runs in 13.1 innings with more walks (10) than strikeouts (8). That equates to an 11.48 ERA to go along with a 6.57 xFIP over those starts while also allowing four home runs in those 13.1 innings, an ugly 2.70/9 home run rate allowed. This stretch raises his ERA for the season to 4.61 and the xFIP to 4.33.
Furthermore, the increase in home runs allowed lately is especially concerning while facing an Angels’ team that is second in the majors in home runs vs. right-handed pitchers with 147, behind only the mighty Yankees. That should result in better support for Kikuchi for a change.
So, with Kikuchi having a solid season while facing a team that cannot hit lefties, and Corbin regressing to his poor form while facing a team that hits home runs, back the Angels on the road.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, August 26, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
We are expecting a higher scoring game than this seemingly low total implies, so we are backing the Over when Dylan Cease and the Padres visit Luis Castillo and the Mariners in the Emerald City on Tuesday.
Cease Had Been Disappointing and Not Improving
We were quite high on Cease entering this season after he posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.44 xFIP while reducing his walks last year, but sadly he is proving us wrong. He comes in at just 6-11 while pitching for a team that is one game out of first place, with an unexpectedly high 4.71 ERA. That regression corresponds with the command issues that plagued Cease earlier in his career returning, with the walk rate currently at 3.79/9.
Besides the extra traffic on the basepaths via walks, Dylan’s hard contact rate of 34.8% is at its highest point since his second year in the league in 2020, making for a terrible combination with a low groundball rate of 35.5%. Worst of all, Cease is not really showing signs of improvement, as he has just one Quality Start in his last 10 outings.
Now, he must deal with a Seattle offense that rather surprisingly ranks sixth in the majors in wRC+ vs. righties at 111 despite playing home games in a pitcher-friendly park.
Castillo Has Soft Metrics that Don’t Support the ERA
Castillo enters with an 8-7 record, and while some may think that the record should be better given his 3.57 ERA, we feel the opposite, that the ERA looks fraudulent based on his metrics. For starters, he is in peril of posting an xFIP above 4.00 for the first time since entering the Major Leagues in 2017 as it is currently 4.18, and it is easy to see why with his strikeouts way down.
Luis has a fine career 3.63 xFIP fueled by an excellent career strikeout rate of 9.53/9, but now at 32 years old, that K-Rate is all the way down to a career worst 7.81/9 this year. That is down from 8.98/9 last season, which marked the first time in his career it was less than one batter per inning. The bad news does not end there as his 10.8% swinging strike rate is also a career low and he has a bad soft/hard contact ratio of 14.6%/34.5%.
Those peripherals simply do not support his ERA, and he is facing a San Diego offense that has also been good vs. right-handed pitchers with a wRC+ of 105.
What we have here is a starter in Cease that is undoubtedly having a poor season, one in Castillo in line for negative ERA regression and two good offenses. Bet on the Over in Seattle on Tuesday.
Get the Best Sportsbook Line Before It Moves
Today’s three MLB best bets feature two modest favorites and one total, but odds shift fast — by game time, you could be stuck with worse numbers.
That’s why it’s crucial to keep your sportsbook account funded. Even better, maintain multiple accounts so you can shop for the sharpest lines and odds. Always bet at a trusted sportsbook to lock in the best value.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
