MLB Best Bets for August 24: Arizona’s Pitchers Have No Mercy
-
Rainman M.
- August 24, 2025
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for what is a day packed with baseball.
My favorite three games to invest in will take us through the early and late afternoon. These games are: Guardians vs. Rangers, Dodgers vs. Padres, and Reds vs. Diamondbacks.
For your MLB best bets, I will recommend Guardians-Rangers under and the team total under for the Dodgers and Reds.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, August 24, 2025 – 02:35 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Gavin Williams’ Improvement
Cleveland starts Gavin Williams today.
In the second half of the season, he has looked like a different pitcher. Whereas his ERA in the first half was 3.70, it is 2.00 in the second half.
One thing that he has done is that he has greatly improved his command. He has almost halved his first-half walk rate.
Now he is walking about 2.5 fewer batters per nine innings, in addition to yielding a .178 BA. When batters struggle to hit him, they depend on his freebies, but he doesn’t bail them out anymore.
Consistent Success
Both starters are reliable today in view of their recently consistent success.
Williams enters today’s game having limited four of his last six opponents to one run or fewer and five of his last six opponents to two runs or fewer.
Similarly, Texas starter Merrill Kelly has held seven of his last eight opponents to two runs or fewer.
Matchups
Even relative to the success that they’ve been enjoying, both starting pitchers are primed to perform better because they match up superbly against the opposing lineup:
- Cleveland ranks 28th with a .389 slugging rate against Kelly’s favorite pitches from righties.
- Texas ranks 28th with a .385 slugging rate against Williams’ favorite pitches from righties.
Takeaway
The full-game under will hit with both bullpens being fresh after yesterday’s blowout.
Both teams have bullpens ranked in the top five. We thus get plenty of available good relievers for this game.
As a bonus, the Rangers are awful in the daytime, slugging .351 in day games. The only other notable daytime stat for this game is that Gavin Williams boasts a career 2.70 ERA in day games, compared to 4.62 in night games.
If you wanted to make a second play on this game, these daytime stats justify an additional wager on the Rangers team total under at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 24, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Thriving Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta starts for the Padres today.
Pivetta enters today’s game in great form, having limited both of his last two opponents to one run.
More extensively, he has proven to be a consistent force, having held eight of his last ten opponents to one run or fewer and nine of them to two earned runs or fewer.
Pivetta vs. Dodgers Batters
Dodgers backers will point to the Dodgers’ lineup’s strong numbers against Pivetta.
However, the Dodgers batters are not in the form they were in when they produced those numbers against Pivetta. Currently, Los Angeles has failed to exceed a run in either of its last two starts.
Its batters, who have good numbers against Pivetta, are cold right now. Shohei Ohtani and Will Smith, for example, both have zero hits in any of their last two games.
Since August 13, Freddie Freeman has looked very unimpressive, except for his meaninglessly great performances in Colorado’s super-hitters-friendly venue against the Rockies’ atrocious pitching.
Take those batters out of the equation, and Pivetta doesn’t have any batters to worry about today. With San Diego’s bullpen ranked number one by far, the Dodgers’ team total under will hit.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, August 24, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Arizona’s Improving Bullen
This year, Arizona’s bullpen has been the object of severe criticism. But Arizona’s bullpen is improving itself greatly.
The Diamondbacks had won three straight close games — before blowing out Cleveland yesterday — largely thanks to their bullpen’s ability to limit run production.
Thanks to yesterday’s blowout win, Arizona has its key relievers fresh. They will ensure a low-scoring output for the Reds if Arizona’s starter today performs well.
Zac Gallen vs. Reds Batters
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks today.
Gallen this year has had rough outings, for sure — his ERA says as much. But he has also put together fantastic performances.
Today, he is in a great spot against a Reds lineup that he pitched poorly against earlier in the season. As evident in his latest starts against the Padres and Rockies, Gallen is a great revenge pitcher.
Expect Gallen to achieve revenge, especially against a Reds lineup that generally struggles against him. Overall, the Reds collectively bat .127 and slug .254 with him on the mound.
Given that the outlook is great for both Gallen and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, the Reds’ team total under will hit.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
