MLB Best Bets for August 22: Nationals Get Our Vote in Philadelphia Friday
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LT Profits
- August 22, 2025
We went a winning 2-1 on Wednesday, including an underdog winner with the A’s.
That leaves us a profitable 78-64-4 over our last 146 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. We return on Friday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action.
As usual, we have three MLB best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of one nice underdog side and two totals. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We are calling for an upset in the City of Brotherly Love on Friday night and are thus giving our support to Cade Cavalli and the Nationals when they visit Taijuan Walker and the Phillies.
Cavalli Fulfilling His Great Potential Since Returning
Cavalli was a first-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, but he pitched just 4.1 innings in the Major Leagues before a series of arm and hamstring injuries curtailed his career. Well, he finally returned to the majors on August 6th, and he appears to be well on the way to fulfilling his vast potential at the still reasonably young age of 27.
He is 1-0 in three starts with a 2.20 ERA and 3.53 xFIP, with two scoreless outings in those three starts.
His last effort was his best one yet, tossing seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts and not a single walk. His strikeout rate is currently 7.71/9, but his very good swinging strike rate of 13.1% indicates that rate will rise over time, and he combines that with a sparkling groundball rate of 50.0%.
Perhaps best of all, he grades out at 109 overall on Stuff+ with all four of his primary pitches graded 100 or higher, led by an extremely heavy sinker averaging 97.3 MPH, which is the same great velocity as his fastball!
Walker is Not What He Once Was and ERA Deceptive
While Cavalli’s career is on the rise, the opposite is true for Walker, as he is on the tail end of his career.
He has a losing 4-6 record while pitching for a first-place team, and his 3.34 ERA is a mirage relative to his peripherals, beginning with his xFIP being more than a full run higher at 4.45.
He has benefited greatly from a lucky 80.1% strand percentage, which is especially high for a non-strikeout pitcher.
To wit, Taijuan has a low K-Rate of 6.38/9 with his average fastball velocity down to 92.3 MPH, and as low as that rate is overall, it is a worse 4.58/9 in seven starts since re-entering the starting rotation on July 8th.
Given that most of that contact has been hard with that rate at 31.2% overall and a more disturbing 33.9% in his seven starts since returning, his lucky strand rate simply seems unsustainable.
Once Walker leaves the game, the Phillies’ bullpen remains rather disappointing while ranking 24th in the league with a 4.32 ERA.
We feel that Cavalli offers a ton of upside while Walker’s fraud of an ERA only has one direction to go based on metrics. Bet on the Nationals with their underdog price at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We believe that the bats for both teams will be silenced in Arlington Friday night, so we are betting on the Under when Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers host Slade Cecconi and the Guardians.
Eovaldi is Having a Career Year with Amazing Consistency
Eovaldi is having such a great season that the Rangers paid him his All-Star bonus per his contract even after he was snubbed for the game.
He comes in at 11-3 while still carrying a sensational 1.76 ERA with just a third of the season left. His 123 innings pitched leave him six innings short of qualifying for the league leaders.
However, he should qualify after another start or two, and that current ERA would lead the Major Leagues.
While this has been a career year for Nathan at the age of 35, it did not come totally out of nowhere, as he posted sub-4.00 ERAs and xFIPs each of the last four years. And his leap this season is validated by his excellent K/BB ratio of 8.78/1.54 per nine innings and a 50.2% groundball rate.
That walk rate is the third lowest in baseball among pitchers with at least 120 innings.
If you like consistency, Eovaldi has allowed three runs or less in 20 of his 21 starts, and he now gets to face a Cleveland lineup ranked only 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 91.
Cecconi Better Than His ERA, Also Having Best Season
Cecconi was highly regarded when he came up with the Diamondbacks in 2023, but after he looked like a bust in his two seasons there, the Guardians were able to acquire him in a trade.
Truth be told, he has actually made some major strides this season, although you may not know it by his 4.50 ERA and 4.21 xFIP or by his last two starts, over which he allowed 11 earned runs over 7.2 innings.
Those two stinkers have elevated the ERA and xFIP, but the good news is he maintained his average fastball velocity of 94.2 MPH in those two starts and his cutter was a season high 90.0 MPH last time out. He had allowed three runs or less in 10 out of 11 starts prior to those last two, and we think he has a good chance to regain that form tonight facing a lesser offense.
That is because the Rangers have not been much better than the Guardians against right-handers, ranking 25th in wRC+ at 95.
With Eovaldi being one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, Cecconi having his best season and two offenses in the Bottom 6 in wRC+ against righties, we are going Under this posted total at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, August 22, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
We are expecting a low-scoring affair in American Family Field on Friday, so we are supporting the Under when Jose Quintana and the Brewers host Carson Whisenhunt and the Giants.
Veteran Quintana Steady as Ever, Faces Weak Offense
The southpaw Quintana may be getting up there in age at 36, but he has posted sub-4.00 ERAs each of the last three years with three different teams.
He is now on the way to a fourth straight such season with his fourth team in that span.
Quintana is 10-4 for the red-hot Brewers with that ERA standing at 3.32. He is not slowing down while coming off three straight Quality Starts.
He allowed just one run and five hits in 6.1 innings at Cincinnati on Sunday, marking the 15th time in 19 starts this year that he has allowed three runs or less. Moreover, that outing also marked his second straight start of allowing exactly one run, and the 10th time in his 19 starts that he allowed one earned run or less!
We now expect him to excel again facing a San Francisco offense that has been horrific against left-handed pitchers, ranking 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them a puny 74.
Whisenhunt Well Regarded, Great K-Rate in Minors
This is a battle of southpaws with Whisenhunt toeing the rubber for the Giants, and while the rookie is 1-1 with a lofty 5.02 ERA and 5.23 xFIP, that is over just 14.2 innings in three Major League starts. He remains highly regarded after posting double-digit strikeout rates every season in the minors including a lofty 11.57/9 last year, and while that rate is at 7.53/9 during his limited big-league stint, the potential for more is certainly there with his 12.6% swinging strike rate.
What is interesting about Carson is that he has allowed four earned runs in 9.1 innings over his last two starts, and all four runs came on home runs!
That will certainly not continue for a guy who was not home run prone in the minors, where his highest home run allowed rate at any stop was 1.20/9 in AAA last season. If you eliminate the four homers, it leaves Whisenhunt with four earned runs and nine hits allowed in his 14.1 innings.
Also, remember that he has the support of a Giants bullpen that ranks second in the league in ERA at 3.31 and fourth in xFIP at 3.93.
In the end, we look for the wily Quintana to shut down a San Fransico offense that cannot hit lefties, and for Whisenhunt and the pen to contain the Brewers enough to bet the Under at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
