MLB Best Bets for August 19: Bountiful Scoring Expected in Boston
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LT Profits
- August 19, 2025
We are a profitable 75-61-4 over our last 140 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. We are back on Tuesday for a huge 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action including a doubleheader. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Tuesday being totals, consisting of one Over and two Unders. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
In a matchup of two pitchers with lacking peripherals, we foresee a plethora of scoring in Fenway Park on Tuesday. Thus, we are backing the Over when Tomoyuki Sugano and the Orioles visit Walker Buehler and the Red Sox.
Is Sugano the Worst 10-Win Pitcher in Baseball?
Sugano has somehow managed to go 10-5 while pitching for a sub-.500 Orioles team despite some terrible metrics that resemble those of a losing pitcher. He has even allowed three runs or less in each of his last four starts, although only two of those were Quality Starts as he did not last six innings on the other two. Regardless, we see nothing but negative regression the rest of the way.
For starters, Tomoyuki Sugano has a 4.74 xFIP that ranks fourth worst in the Major Leagues among qualifying starting pitchers. That is keyed by a poor K/BB ratio of 5.84/2.28 per nine innings, as well as allowing 1.50 home runs per nine. He is not missing many bats with a scant swinging strike rate of 7.7%, and much of the contact has been hard given his weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.4%/33.6%.
We simply do not see Sugano’s luck lasting much longer, and once he exits this contest, the Baltimore bullpen ranks 25th in the majors with a 4.72 ERA.
Buehler Ineffective since Tommy John Surgery
Walker Buehler had a great start to his career with the Dodgers, but he injured his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022, necessitating him to miss the entire 2023 season. Well, to say he has not been the same pitcher since returning would be a huge understatement, as he went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 4.49 xFIP for the Dodgers last year, prompting his release.
The Red Sox then signed him as a free agent, and although he has a lucky record like Sugano at 7-7, he actually has the higher ERA in this matchup at 5.43 and the higher xFIP at 4.91. His 106 innings pitched do not allow him to qualify for the league leaders, but he has the eighth worst ERA and ninth worst xFIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He also has an awful K/BB ratio of 6.62/4.25 per nine innings, with the walk rate being fifth worst of the 100-inning group.
So, what we have here are two starters whose peripherals in no way correspond with their W/L records. We are looking for regression in both cases and betting on the Over in Boston.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 7 – Orioles 5
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
We expect a relatively low-scoring affair in Tampa on Tuesday and are thus betting on the Under when Carlos Rondon and the Yankees visit Shane Baz and the Rays.
Rondon’s Best Season with Yanks, Rays Struggle vs. Lefties
Rondon signed a controversially huge contract with the Yankees before the 2023 season, and the skeptics were out in force after an injury plagued year, although he was better in his first full season with the Bronx Bombers last season. Now, the southpaw is having his best season as a Yankee, coming in at 12-7 with a 3.25 ERA, and his most recent start may have been his best of the year as he allowed only one hit in seven innings against the Twins.
Carlos has one of our favorite combinations, as he has an excellent strikeout rate of 10.06/9 and a good groundball rate of 40.6%. The K-Rate is validated by a good swinging strike rate of 12.6%, and he has added a new sinker this year already rated 110 on Stuff+, which when combined with his 109-rated slider has generated many of the groundballs. Rondon also has his highest soft-contact rate since joining the Yankees at 16.0%.
Moreover, the Rays have struggled against left-handed pitchers, ranking 22nd in wRC+ against them at 81 (or 19% below average).
Baz is Better Than His ERA and Has Great Pen Support
Baz has disappointing frontline numbers this season as he is only 8-9 with a 4.93 ERA. However, he has not really been that bad as his xFIP paints a rosier picture at 3.85, more than a full run lower than the ERA. His last start was a microcosm of his season, as he was charged with allowing five runs (four earned) despite allowing only six hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts vs. two walks.
Shane Baz is another of those pitchers that combines strikeouts and groundballs, with a good strikeout rate of 9.33/9 and a very good groundball rate of 47.6%. Yes, his walk rate is high at 3.33/9, but that is heading in the right direction as he has had exactly two walks in seven straight starts. He also has a 107 overall Stuff+ that belies his record and ERA, and he has a unique knuckle-curve that rates 126 to go along with a 96.9 MPH fastball.
Furthermore, once Baz leaves, the Tampa Bay bullpen leads the Major Leagues with a 3.76 xFIP.
In summary, we see Rondon continuing his best season in pinstripes against a Rays’ offense that has not hit lefties well, while Baz has metrics that point to positive regression for the ERA. We are going Under this total here.
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Rays 2
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, August 19, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
We think this posted total seems a bit inflated in Kansas City on Tuesday, so we support the Under when Merrill Kelly and the Rangers visit Seth Lugo and the Royals.
Kelly’s Fine Season Has Continued Since Trade
Kelly was acquired by the Rangers from the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline. And he may be having his best Major League season at the age of 36 since entering the league in 2019 after pitching his first four professional seasons in Korea. His combined record this year of 9-7 should be better, as he has career bests in both ERA at 3.36 and in xFIP at 3.73. That success has continued in Texas by allowing exactly two runs in two of three starts with the Rangers.
Merrill Kelly has a vast six-pitch arsenal with three pitches that he has thrown over 20% of the time and a fourth pitch that is at 13.3%, which has helped keep batters off balance. This mix has produced a good strikeout rate of 8.46/9, as well as a 44.4% groundball rate. His double-digit swinging strike rate of 10.8% suggests a possible rise in the strikeouts, and his soft-contact rate of 16.2% is at its highest rate since 2020.
Kelly also has much better bullpen support in Texas than he did in Arizona, with the Rangers’ unit ranking fifth in the majors with a 3.60 ERA.
Lugo Capable of Maintaining ERA vs. Texas Offense
Now, we admittedly do not think that Lugo is as good as his 8-6 record and 3.77 ERA given his higher 4.42 xFIP. However, we do not expect the Royals’ offense to do much given the combination of Kelly’s fine season and the Kansas City offense ranking 26th in wRC+ against righties at 92 (88 at home). Thus, we do think Lugo is at least capable of limiting the scoring enough here to keep this game below this posted total which is currently available at 9.
After all, despite his metrics not being anything special, Seth Lugo has still allowed three earned runs or less in 18 of his 23 starts this season and exactly four runs in two others. And while Lugo has a wider arsenal than Kelly at seven total pitches, at least his most thrown pitch the cutter (albeit at only 27.1%) is his best pitch per Stuff+ at 105, helping offset his lacking overall Stuff+ of 95.
But perhaps more importantly, he is facing a Texas offense that is ranked only one spot above Kansas City in wRC+ against right-handers, in 25th at 95.
In the end, this is a matchup of two offenses in the Bottom 6 of the league in wRC+. Add Kelly having a good year and Lugo capable of continuing to overachieve vs. the Texas offense, and bet on the Under.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Royals 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
