MLB Best Bets for August 12: Mariners, Orioles to Go Over in Baltimore
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LT Profits
- August 12, 2025
We are a profitable 72-59-4 over our last 135 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. And we return Tuesday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of one tiny underdog side and two totals. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, August 12, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We foresee a relatively high-scoring game in Camden Yards on Tuesday, so we are banking on the Over when Dean Kremer and the Orioles host the disappointing George Kirby and the Mariners.
Kremer with Modest Metrics Facing Underrated Offense
We have never been particularly high on Dean Kremer, not even when he went 13-5 in 2023, as he did so with an ERA and xFIP both above 4.00. As expected, he has regressed the last two seasons and while he has managed to post a .500 record this year, it has come with his typically mediocre 4.35 ERA and 4.20 xFIP.
Dean’s strikeouts are down this season at 7.48/9 compared to 8.54/9 last year and 8.18/9 in 2023, with that dip validated by his single digit swinging strike rate of 9.6%. He also has a below average overall Stuff+ of 95, which has helped result in a huge dip in his soft contact rate to 15.0% from 23.1% last season. And keep in mind that is occurring over more contact in general with his K-Rate down.
Kremer must now contend with an underrated Seattle offense that is tied with the Yankees for sixth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 112 despite playing their home games in a pitchers’ park. And as you might expect, they have been more productive on the road, ranking third in the league in road OPS vs. righties at .766 to go along with a 113 wRC+.
Kirby Having Worst Season with Walks Way Up
Kirby was one of the top pitchers in baseball over his first three seasons in the Major Leagues mainly due to impeccable command. However, this fourth season in the league has been his worst one as he enters at just 7-5 with a 4.04 ERA, with that ERA standing at a bloated 4.96 away from spacious T-Mobile Park.
George Kirby has his first stint ever on the injured list this season with shoulder inflammation, and perhaps that remains a factor in his performance. His command is not nearly as good as in past years, as after having the lowest walk rate in baseball in both 2023 (0.90/9) and 2024 (1.08/9), that rate is way up to 2.31/9 this season. Furthermore, that unexpected extra traffic has been accompanied by a horrible soft/hard contact ratio of 10.8%/36.3%.
Regardless of whether the shoulder injury is still bothering Kirby or not, there is no denying his decline this season. Add shaky metrics for Kremer and a more potent Seattle offense on the road, and bet on the Over in Baltimore.
Predicted Score: Mariners 6 – Orioles 5
Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, August 12, 2025 – 07:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
This is one of our favorite kinds of matchups, where opposite regressions are expected from the starting pitchers. Therefore, we are betting on Ben Brown and the Cubs when they go north of the border to visit Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays.
Brown with Nice Command Ratio, Unique Knuckle-Curve
Brown may have a losing record at 5-7 and a 6.04 ERA over 92.1 innings, but he also has one of the widest ERA/xFIP variances in the league for pitchers with an ample number of innings pitched. You see, his xFIP stands at a good 3.58, as the ERA is skewed by a very unlucky BABIP allowed of .347.
The fact is that Ben Brown has an excellent strikeout rate of 10.14/9 with an acceptable walk rate of 2.63/9 given the K-Rate. And he combines all those strikeouts with a good groundball rate of 43.4%, which we always like to see. Brown does that with mostly a two-pitch combination that cannot be any different, namely a good 95.8 MPH fastball and a great knuckle-curveball.
The latter is not thrown by many pitchers in baseball, and Ben may have the best one among active starters right now with its 120 rating on Stuff+. And the difference in the velocities in his two main pitches with the knuckler at 87.0 MPH helps keep batters off-balance.
Berrios Not as Good as ERA, Faces Great Offense
Berrios is the opposite of Brown, as while the former comes in at 8-4 with a seemingly good 3.89 ERA, it is accompanied by a higher 4.34 xFIP and a mediocre strikeout rate. Furthermore, the ERA for Berrios aligns with his xFIP at 4.34 here at home compared to an overachieving 3.48 ERA on the road.
Jose Berrios has a modest K/BB ratio of 7.64/2.96 per nine innings, and he does not make up for the mediocre K-Rate with groundballs, as that rate is an ordinary 38.4%. That makes his weak soft/hard contact of 14.7%/32.2% scarier with most of that contact being in the air, and indeed his home run rate allowed of 1.32/9 ranks in the bottom 20 among qualified starters.
To top things off, Berrios must deal with one of the best offenses in baseball as the Cubs rank third in wRC+ vs. righties at 115, and they are tied for third with the Yankees in OPS against them at .766.
So, in a scenario we love with one pitcher being better than his ERA and the other one not as good based on metrics, we are supporting Brown and the Cubs as small underdogs in Toronto.
Predicted Score: Cubs 5 – Blue Jays 3
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, August 12, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We are not expecting a plethora of runs to be scored in Texas on Tuesday, so we are backing the Under when Jack Leiter and the Rangers host Anthony DeSclafani and the Diamondbacks.
Leiter Showing Improvement We Expected All Along
We were rather high on Leiter entering this season, so his 7-6 record and 4.05 ERA over 20 starts covering exactly 100 innings are a bit disappointing. However, he had a poor start to this year that saw him standing with a 5.09 ERA and a strikeout rate of 7.04/9 through his first five starts. He has pitched more like we expected since then though, with a 3.74 ERA and 8.77/9 strikeout rate over his last 15 starts.
Jack Leiter allowed three runs or less in 13 of those 15 outings including his nice current streak of eight consecutive such starts! The reasons for us liking Leiter to begin with are still in place, as he has a blazing fastball averaging 97.3 MPH and a heavy 96.5 MPH sinker. He has also gotten his swinging strike rate back into double digits at 10.8% thanks to the spike in strikeouts since his terrible start.
Furthermore, his overall Stuff+ of 109, keyed by the 119 rating for the fastball and three secondary pitches over 100 suggest continued improvement expected.
DeSclafani Better Second Start, Texas Offense Suspect Now
Anthony DeSclafani is the wild card pertaining to this pick on the Under, as he is 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He began this season in the bullpen, but he was recently re-inserted into the starting role he has had most of his career. After looking shaky in his return to the rotation on August 1st against an underrated Athletics’ offense, he sparkled in his latest start against the Padres tossing 4.1 scoreless innings while allowing just three hits with four strikeouts and no walks.
More importantly, we like Anthony’s peripherals as he combines a good strikeout rate of 8.40/9 with a groundball rate of 44.0%. Moreover, his very good swinging strike rate of 11.8% suggests more positive regression to the K-Rate, and he has raised his soft contact rate to 17.4% for 16.2% the last time he pitched in the majors in 2023. His fastball velocity is up nearly a full MPH for 94.0 from 93.1, and his overall Stuff+ of 100 is its highest point ever for that metric.
And while the Texas offense has been better lately, we are still not enthralled with a unit that remains 25th in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at 93 (7% below average).
In the end, we expect Leiter to continue the improvement he has shown since his slow start, and for DeSclafani to build on his fine last outing against a still suspect offense. Bet the Under in Arlington.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Rangers 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
