MLB Best Bets for August 1: Not Much Scoring Brewing in Nation’s Capital
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LT Profits
- August 1, 2025
We went 1-2 on Wednesday, but the good news is the winner was the Marlins at +131 odds, and we are still 69-52-2 over our last 123 Major League Baseball picks with no heavy favorites.
We return Friday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday all being totals consisting of one Over and two Unders.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We expect a relatively low-scoring game in our nation’s capital Friday, so we back the Under when Jose Quintana and the Brewers visit Mitchell Parker and the Nationals in Washington, DC.
Quintana Good ERA and Pen Support vs. Weak Offense
The southpaw Jose Quintana has bounced around the league while quietly posting sub-4.00 ERAs for three different teams over the last three years. Well, he is at it again while pitching for his fourth team in four years at the age of 36 this season. He comes in with a winning 7-4 record for a Washington team that is 20 games under .500, and the ERA is again good at 3.50.
Furthermore, Jose has been at his best on the road where he sports a spiffy 2.36 ERA compared to 4.91 at home. He has made eight road starts this season and allowed two runs or less in six of them and three runs in another. The only time he allowed more than three runs away from home, he allowed a manageable four runs against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup.
His task is not as difficult here facing a Washington team ranked an identical 19th against lefties in both wRC+ at 87 and OPS at .667. He also has the support of a good Milwaukee bullpen ranked ninth in xFIP at 3.98.
Parker Pitching Better Since Cutting Walks
The fellow left-hander Mitchell Parker does not have great frontline numbers at 7-10 with a 4.91 ERA, but he has pitched much better since struggling mightily with his control earlier in the season. The Nationals had high hopes for Parker this year after flashing some signs of greatness as a rookie last season, and although the overall numbers do not show it, at least he is now on the right path.
Mitchell had a high walk rate of 4.35/9 over his first seven starts, but he has better managed that command by lowering the walks to 2.74/9 since then. For validation of his improved command, his Location+ is now above average overall at 102. That has coincided with an improvement to his overall form, as he has now allowed three runs or less in seven of his last 10 starts including exactly two runs in each of his last two starts since the All-Star break.
In summary, we do not expect the Nationals to do much offensively against Quintana and the Milwaukee bullpen. At the same time, Parker is now showing signs of fulfilling his potential, so we are betting on the Under in this spot at top sportsbooks. Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Nationals 3
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
In a matchup where we feel that neither starting pitcher is as good as his ERA, we are betting on the Over when David Peterson and the Mets host Robbie Ray and the Giants.
Peterson with Poor Metrics, Regression Expected
David Peterson has become one of our least favorite pitchers in baseball because he keeps on putting up good numbers despite sub-par metrics, and the regression we have been waiting for the last two years has yet to take effect. He finished 10-3 last season with a great 2.90 ERA despite a 4.10 xFIP.
Well, he has followed that up by going 7-4 with a better 2.83 ERA this year despite his continued lacking metrics. For starters, David has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.51/3.05 per nine innings. Then, he also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.8%/35.0%, and yet he has somehow lucked out with a home run allowed rate of only 0.52/9. And perhaps most damning of all, his overall Stuff+ of 89 in no way supports his frontline numbers since last season.
He beat these Giants in San Francisco in his last start on Saturday, allowing just one run despite surrendering eight hits plus three walks in six innings. Peterson’s luck must end at some point, and we look for the Giants to score more runs if he has a similar outing tonight.
Ray High ERA/xFIP Variance and Pen Slumping
Robbie Ray also has good frontline numbers at 9-5, and he too has a sub-3.00 ERA at 2.93. However, his xFIP is over a full run higher at 4.02, and while he has a good strikeout rate of 9.35/9, that is accompanied by a high walk rate of 3.63/9. He has also benefited mightily in the Luck Stats, with a low .248 BABIP allowed and a high 81.1% strand rate.
Robbie is now 33 years old, and his fastball velocity is not what it once was, now down to 93.6 MPH. Furthermore, none of his three secondary pitches grade higher than 91 in Stuff+, leading to an overall Stuff+ of 97, marking the first time that is below 100 since the metric was first introduced in 2020.
And once Ray departs, the San Francisco bullpen has been slumping lately. Yes, that unit is still second in the majors in ERA at 3.22, but it was only 15th during July at 4.09.
The bottom line here is we think this is a matchup of two pitchers that have been very lucky this season given their underlying peripherals. Thus, we are going Over this total in Flushing, NY on Friday. Predicted Score: Giants 5 – Mets 4.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
We think that runs will be hard to come by in San Diego on Friday night, so we support the Under when Nick Pivetta and the Padres host Matthew Liberatore and the Cardinals.
Pivetta is Top 15 in ERA and Faces Declining Offense
Nick Pivetta is having the best season of his career in his first year in San Diego. He comes in at 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 3.57 xFIP, with that ERA ranking 13th best in the Major Leagues. He is showing no real signs of slowing down either, as he has now allowed two earned runs or less in six straight starts!
Nick’s next win will mark a career high, as he has already matched his previous high of 10 with nearly half a season remaining. He has a fine K/BB ratio of 9.69/2.27 per nine innings, and he has kept the ball in the yard with a home run allowed rate of 0.96/9 across 121.2 innings. He has a great slider rated 110 on Stuff+ and he is spotting his pitches better than he ever has, with a career-best Location+ also at 110.
Pivetta faces a St. Louis offense that struggled against righties in July, ranking 27th against them in wRC+ at 93 and 28th in OPS at .672 for the month.
Liberatore Good Current Form, Pads Struggle with Lefties
Matthew Liberatore has been rather streaky this season, and the end-result for the southpaw has been a 6-8 record and 4.04 ERA. His strikeout rate is mediocre at 7.14/9, but he has helped offset that by limiting his walks to 2.06/9, and his heavy 94.2 MPH sinker combined with a cutter rated 121 on Stuff+ has led to a good groundball rate of 40.8%.
Matthew is certainly in a good cycle right now, as the left-hander has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. His most recent start was against these Cardinals last Saturday, where he was an unlucky loser despite allowing just one earned run and six hits.
Liberatore is facing a San Diego offense that has not been as good against lefties as against righties this season. The Padres have a below average wRC+ of 92 against southpaws, and they are in the bottom half of the league in OPS against them, ranking 17th at only .680.
With Pivetta having a career year and Liberatore being in great recent form, including a nice start against these Padres last time out, bet on the Under in Petco Park Friday—predicted score: Padres 3 – Cardinals 2.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
