It seems like all-Big Ten rivalries play for silly trophies and the Minnesota-Iowa winner gets the Floyd of Rosedale, which is a giant bronze pig trophy. The Gophers lead the all-time series 61-50-2. However, the Hawkeyes have won the past six. Last year, Iowa was a 3-point road favorite on the NCAAF odds at BMR’s top-rated books and won 35-7.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 03:30 PM EST at Kinnick Stadium
Once again the Big Ten West is the much weaker of the two divisions in that league as every club in the West has at least two conference losses. The loser of Saturday’s game between the Gophers and the No. 19 Hawkeyes probably is out of the West race.
These two, Purdue and Wisconsin are all tied for first at 4-2. I’m not even going to try and explain all the tiebreakers but if the Badgers win out they would win the West as they already own victories over Iowa and Purdue and close the regular season at Minnesota. That’s pretty much what I expect to happen.
Iowa’s Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent combined for 228 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan, who is still around, completed 16-of-33 passes for 167 yards and one touchdown. Iowa is 4-0-1 against the spread in the past five meetings.
Minnesota Caught Looking Ahead?
The Gophers (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) had controlled their destiny to win the Big Ten West but were shocked at home by a not-very-good Illinois team on Saturday 14-6 – Minnesota also had an inexplicable home loss on Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green out of conference.
Star Minnesota receiver Chris Autman-Bell left with an undisclosed injury and didn’t return. He finished with one catch for 24 yards and has battled injuries all year. He has 24 catches for 300 yards and two scores overall and is expected to play vs. Iowa. Autman-Bell has caught at least one pass in 34 straight games in which he has played.
The Gophers didn’t score until there were about five minutes left. Illinois sacked Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan six times and picked him off twice. Morgan reached 500 career completions during the game (507), and his passing yardage total moved him past Mitch Leidner (2013-16) for third on Minnesota’s all-time list with 7,385 yards.
Minnesota has been destroyed by injury at running back this year – the top three are all out for the year -- and Ky Thomas made his first career start vs. the Illini and the freshman finished with 60 yards on 16 carries.
“The consistency was that we were inconsistent, whether there was a penalty, dropped ball or sack,” Coach PJ Fleck said of the offensive issues. “Those things just absolutely hurt you and we showed that. There was a missed field goal and missed extra point, so just all around it wasn’t very good. That was my responsibility and I failed on that.”
Fleck’s team is 9-1-1 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past 11 Big Ten games.
Iowa Making QB Change?
No. 19 Iowa (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) won a slugfest over Northwestern on Saturday, 17-12. Starting Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras completed 2-of-4 passes for four yards before getting benched – Petras was playing through a shoulder injury and he’s not listed on Iowa’s initial depth chart this week. He has thrown for 1,430 yards, nine TDs, and six picks this year.
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said Petras looked healthy enough to start against the Wildcats, but it was quickly apparent he didn’t have any “zip” on the ball. Backup Alex Padilla entered the game late in the first quarter and led the Hawkeyes on touchdown drives on his first two possessions. He finished 18-of-28 for 172 yards and apparently will start this game.
“You can’t really downgrade Spencer because he couldn’t play full speed. I admire Spencer for giving it a try. So, we’ll just see where that is next week. In the meantime, it’s great to see Alex get some experience and be successful and to be the quarterback of a team that wins,” Ferentz said.
Junior running back Tyler Goodson and finished with 141 yards on 21 attempts with one touchdown. Goodson has been Iowa’s leading rusher for 12 straight games, the longest streak by a Hawkeye since Shonn Greene in 13 straight games in 2008. No defense in the nation forces turnovers like Iowa’s, which had three more takeaways – all interceptions. A whopping 10 Iowa players have interceptions this year. The Hawkeyes lead the nation with 19 picks and are plus-18 in turnover margin in their six wins and minus-6 in their two losses.
Star cornerback Riley Moss, who has four picks this year and has returned two for scores, missed a third straight game with a knee injury. He is not listed on the depth chart this week as of now. Iowa is 7-1 ATS at BMR’s top-rated books in its past eight after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game.
This is going to be really low-scoring, but I can’t go under the total of 37 for my college football pick. Simulations have the Hawkeyes winning by 10.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa at -6 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
