The Dallas Mavericks snuck away with a win on Thursday evening against the San Antonio Spurs, but now their task gets even tougher on no rest as they travel into Denver to play the Nuggets. Which way to lean at BMR’s best sportsbooks?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, October 29, 2021 – 10:00 PM EDT at Ball Arena
All Luka Doncic, but Denver’s Star Questionable
I’m going to end up sounding like a broken record on the Mavericks this season, but every time we talk about them, it has to be brought up that Luka Doncic is carrying this team on his back.
The Mavs have some really nice complementary pieces, but with Kristaps Porzingis either injured, broken down, or both, Dallas doesn’t have enough to compete for a playoff spot.
Porzingis sat out Thursday’s game and there’s been no word on his status for Friday either with the team coming off a game the night before.
That means it may be Doncic, Tim Hardaway, and not a lot else for the Mavericks on the road in a very tough place to play.
It’s not all cupcakes and roses for the Nuggets at home though. Nikola Jokic is officially questionable with a knee bruise and if he sits out, that will drastically change these NBA odds.
This is the front half of a back-to-back for the Nuggets as well, but they play tomorrow on the road in Minnesota, so I could see them playing Jokic tonight and then letting him rest tomorrow on the road if he’s a little banged up.
However, as long as Jokic plays, the Nuggets are a fine value here laying on two points.
The Sharp Pick
The good thing about the NBA, opposed to a sport like baseball, is you don’t need a giant sample size to make meaningful NBA picks. 5 to 10 games are all you need and we’re starting to see some patterns emerge with both of these teams that are promising for Denver.
Through four games, the Nuggets rank 10th in the league in defensive efficiency, so with a tired Mavs team coming in and potentially missing their second-best player, I expect them to put the clamps down early if they can.
Having a game tomorrow is going to be a lot easier if they can put this Mavs team down without much drama.
Add in how well both these teams have been playing on defense, I fully expect this one to be lower scoring, which also favors the Nuggets assuming Jokic is good to go.
Add to all of this that the Nuggets are coming off a pretty bad loss to the Jazz and they’ve had two full days of practice and rest time since then, I’m really surprised this line is as low as it is.
As long as there isn’t a real chance of Jokic sitting out, this short link and a tired Mavs team should lose by two or more possessions.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -2 (-110) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
