Kentucky Derby 2025 is here.Â
There will be ample discussion about what favorites to consider and, later, what long shots to ponder. We decided to get ahead of the curve and talk about what horses behind the favorites deserve a look to win or cash.
By all current accounts, Journalism is a solid favorite, and public opinion might push his 3-1 odds even lower. His 102 and 108 speed ratings are the two best in the field.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks
Our expert horse racing handicapper Doug Upstone is high on Publisher to place first in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Publisher is currently priced at +2500 to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby for Tennessee players at BetOnline.
Read all Kentucky Derby picks.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Winner Odds
| The Elite | The Contenders | The Longshots | The Underdogs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism (+240) | Luxor Cafe (+800) | Baeza (+1400) | East Avenue (+1800) |
| Sovereignty (+500) | Burnham Square (+1100) | American Promise (+1600) | Tiztastic (+2000) |
| Sandman (+700) | Citizen Bull (+1200) | Final Gambit (+1800) | Coal Battle (+2200) |
*All odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)Â
Under the Radar, Over the Potential
Burnham Square
Burnham Square won the Holy Bull Stakes earlier in the prep season but was a lackadaisical fourth in the Fountain of Youth.
Coming back to win the Keeneland Stakes is a positive for trainer Ian Wilkes. It was noted that the pace was lackluster at Keeneland, yet Burnham Square didn’t have an issue with the distance, which is key.
- Burnham Square To Win Kentucky Derby 2025 (+1100) at BetOnline
Citizen Bull Needs a Clean Break
Citizen Bull was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner last fall and the 2-year-old champion. After posting speed ratings of 98-96, he came in a nondescript 87 at the Santa Anita Derby, finishing a distant 4th, over nine lengths back.
There are horse people who claim it just wasn’t his day. Still, if he can claim one of the first 10 gates at Churchill and hit the first turn away from traffic where he can run, Citizen Bull becomes a contender.
As veteran horse bettors know, the Derby isn’t always about the best horse, it’s about the right trip. That could be Citizen Bull.
- Citizen Bull To Win Kentucky Derby 2025 (+1200) at BetOnline
Second to Journalism, First on the Watch List
Currently, Baeza is not in the field, having not secured enough points to qualify.
Nevertheless, if some owners or trainers don’t like their chance in Lexington and think the Preakness, Belmont or other good races would serve this horse better, they could pull out. That would open up a spot for Baeza, and our research shows this horse is unlikely to have this high of odds after running a strong second to favored Journalism at the Santa Anita Derby with a 101-speed rating.
Watch closely to see if Baeza makes the field.
- Baeza To Win Kentucky Derby 2025 (+1400) at BetOnline
Tiztastic by Name, Tiz the Law by Bloodline
This horse is the son of Tiz the Law, who in 2020 won the Florida Derby and was second in the Kentucky Derby.
Originally considered a turf horse, Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby, finishing strong on the dirt. That eliminated any doubts for trainer Steve Asmsussen. The key will be getting this horse in a lane because he loves to run.
If Tiztastic can come off the far turn close to the leader with a running lane, he’ll have the spirit to run to the end, creating possibilities.
- Tiztastic To Win Kentucky Derby 2025 (+2000) at BetOnline
