In this confrontation of No. 1 vs. No. 8 seed, the scene shifts from Salt Lake City to Memphis for Game 3. The first two contests have been fun and enjoyable to watch and a third such battle should ensue.
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Saturday, May 29, 2021 – 09:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
The aggressor in the first half of both of the first two skirmishes ended up winning each contest, which is why this Western Conference clash is tied at 1-1. Memphis took the action to Utah in the opener and hung on to win against an out-of-tune Jazz squad. With Donovan Mitchell back, Utah’s offense was in harmony, scoring 74 points in the first half on the way to a 141-129 win and cover.
We don’t recall or can we find who said - “The series doesn’t start until it’s tied 1-1.” – however, that seems appropriate for this one seeing how it has started.
Utah is a five-point away choice by the oddsmakers at YouWager and other top sportsbooks. Given the circumstances, both clubs should provide an all-out effort.
Utah Has to Trust Itself to Succeed
Maybe it was Mitchell not playing in Game 1 when he was supposed to, which threw Utah off its game, but they played unsure of themselves until rallying to lose by three. With Mitchell back, coach Quin Snyder’s crew played with a different comfort level. Their five starters scored anywhere from 14 to 25 points and the bench added 43, led by Jordan Clarkson’s 16.
Because of their ball movement and spacing, when the Jazz offense is in sync, it is as effective as any in the league, which is why they finished third in offensive efficiency. Utah is built around making long-distance shots with accuracy and they finished 4th in the league in the category. At the same time, they do great work on the defensive side guarding the three-ball, holding the opposition to the second-lowest percentage mark in the NBA.
When Utah plays this way, they are tough to beat. On the road, the Jazz were 21-15 and 18-18 ATS, winning by 5.3 PPG.
Memphis Needs Bench Scoring Badly
Ja Morant has been sensational with 73 points in two tries in the postseason. He’s been particularly unstoppable when driving to the cup, making short jumpers, one-handed floaters or dunks.
For the most part, the rest of the Memphis starters have played well, but for the Grizzlies to probably win Game 3 and the series for certain, they will need help off the bench.
After two contests, Utah’s bench has 76 points, the Grizzlies are at 33. That’s a difference of 43 and if you divide that by two, that is a 21.5-point differential, which is massive.
Where or how that comes from doesn’t matter, yet, it would help if it were on three-point makes. Memphis has only made 15 threes compared to the Jazz’s 31. The Grizz average 11 a game, so there is plenty of room for improvement in that category.
Who’s the Play On?
With three days since the last meeting, the energy level for both clubs will be extremely high and Utah will have to withstand a possible early barrage from Memphis. In one way, the betting odds should favor the Grizzlies since they are 10-5 ATS as home underdogs, losing by 3.3 PPG. On the other hand, the Jazz is only 17-16 ATS as road faves, but their margin of victory is +6.4 PPG.
All the numbers point towards Memphis at home for conventional wisdom. Our concern is Utah’s rebounding (+8.5 edge per game in the series) and the Grizzlies' less than stellar free throwing, which could turn a one-point cover into a one-point spread setback.
We’ll avoid second-guessing ourselves for NBA picks and back Memphis, it's just not a confident choice.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +5 (-110) at YouWager
