The confetti has been swept up at Hard Rock Stadium, but it wasn’t orange and green. Watching Indiana hoist the College Football Playoff trophy on our home turf (well, our home city) was a gut punch that’s going to linger. The 2025 season was magical—until that Carson Beck interception sealed our fate in the final minute.
But in the world of NIL and the portal, you don’t get time to grieve. We are already looking at 2026. Mario Cristobal has built a machine, but the parts are changing. The question for bettors at BookMakersReview isn’t “Is Miami back?”—it’s “Can they stay there?”
Here is the insider state of the union for The U.
The QB Room: The King is Dead, Long Live the… Duke?
Carson Beck is off to the NFL (likely a Day 2 pick after that shaky finale), and the keys to the Ferrari have been handed to Darian Mensah. Let’s be honest: The transfer from Duke is an upgrade in athleticism. Mensah threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year and won an ACC Championship. He has the arm, but does he have the “Miami swagger”? He’s the undisputed QB1 heading into spring, with Luke Nickel pushing from the backup spot.
The Clubhouse Leader: A Massive Void
This is my biggest concern. We aren’t just losing talent; we are losing the soul of the defense. Rueben Bain Jr. (off to the NFL Combine) was the vocal heartbeat. Francisco Mauigoa? Gone. Carson Beck? Gone. Who steps up? Right now, the locker room is looking at Mark Fletcher Jr. The senior running back is the definition of “grit.” He’s not the loudest guy, but after rushing for 1,000+ yards and carrying the offense in the playoffs, he is the guy everyone respects. On defense, keep an eye on Damari Brown. He’s the veteran in the secondary now. If he doesn’t take charge, this defense could lack identity early.
The “Unsigned” & Portal Targets
We have a glaring hole at EDGE. Replacing Bain and Akheem Mesidor (23 combined sacks!) is virtually impossible with just current roster guys.
- The Target: We are hearing whispers about Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) potentially hitting the portal as a grad transfer? Unlikely, but Miami is hunting big game.
- The Reality: Expect Miami to target a veteran pass rusher in the spring window. We have the NIL war chest, and playing for a team that just made the Natty is a hell of a recruiting pitch.
The Freshmen: The “Godfather” Arrives
Cristobal’s recruiting class is ranked Top 10 for a reason, but one name matters more than the rest: Jackson Cantwell. The 5-star Offensive Tackle isn’t just a recruit; he’s an immediate starter. With Francis Mauigoa and Anez Cooper leaving for the draft, Cantwell is going to be protecting Mensah’s blindside from Day 1. He is the most physically gifted lineman I’ve seen since Bryant McKinnie.
- Sleeper to Watch: WR Vance Spafford. Speed kills. In Shannon Dawson’s Air Raid, he could be the new Xavier Restrepo by mid-season.
What’s Needed: The Shopping List
- Pass Rush: I cannot stress this enough. We need a “closer.”
- Cornerback Depth: We are thin behind Brown and Frederique. One injury and we are in trouble.
- Mental Toughness: How does this team handle a hangover? The 2003 Hurricanes didn’t handle the Fiesta Bowl loss well. Cristobal needs to ensure 2026 isn’t a “pity party” year.
Coaching Changes
Shannon Dawson (OC) took a lot of heat for the play-calling against Indiana, but he is safe. The offense averaged 38 points a game. The big news? Jason Taylor continuing to ascend. His development of Bain was legendary. Now, with a younger D-Line, this is his biggest test. If the D-Line regresses, the “Fire everyone” chants will start by Week 4.
The FFI Projection
The schedule is manageable, but the pressure is suffocating.
- Projection: 11-2, ACC Champions.
- Betting Angle: I’m taking the Over 10.5 Wins. Mensah is the real deal, and the ACC is still Miami’s playground until proven otherwise. We might not get back to the National Title game, but we are absolutely a playoff team.
Matt Ryan is the lead analyst for Florida Football Insiders. Check out the latest futures odds at BookMakersReview.
