Like most games, finding value on games comes earlier in the week. However, with Monday Night Football, usually, there’s lots of line movement prior to the game. People want to bet on this game because it’s the only nationally televised football game of the night.
This also means that oddsmakers and top-rated sportsbooks will pay attention to lines more and it’s a little bit harder to find value when they do this. Let’s break down the game a bit.
Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chicago Bears are 3-5 on the year while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-3. With a win, at home, the Steelers could be 5-3 on the year, which is a bit shocking at this point in time.
The Steelers have always been dominant on Monday Night Football and that likely doesn’t stop tonight. The Bears have a solid running game, especially with David Montgomery returns but it’s going to be difficult to run against the Steelers, who have allowed just 106 yards per game on the ground.
If the Bears can’t run, nothing will go well for the Bears, who average just 157.6 yards passing with Justin Fields under center. Fields can absolutely make plays with his feet but the Steelers are always prepared for these types of quarterbacks. They face Lamar Jackson twice a year and Jackson is much, much better than Fields.
The Bears average just 15.4 points per game while the Steelers average 18.9 points per game. Neither offense is very good. Defensively, the Bears have struggled in the run game but the special teams unit is always changing the game while the pass rush has been extraordinary this season.
The Steelers also have a fantastic pass rush and the special teams do their part to win games as well. Neither team has great coverage down the field but neither offense is a major threat in the passing game with Ben Roethlisberger and Justin Fields under center.
The Steelers probably shouldn’t be a 7-point favorite at the NFL odds in this game. Neither team has been electric. With the total sitting at 39 currently, the Bears don’t need many points to cover this game.
To handicap this game, I’d look at props that relate to the Steelers having success running the football and the Bears having a little success late in the game passing the ball. The under seems like the play, although betting an under at 39 points is a bit risky at -110. Neither offensive line has really held up this season and there’s room for the Steelers and Bears to create pressure and force turnovers or three-and-outs.
While the Steelers have been fantastic on defense, they’re still scoring fewer points, allowing 20.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bears allow 24.4 points per game while scoring just 15.4 points per game. This game has a 17-14 feel to it for the Steelers. If you think the Bears can cover this game, I’d think about taking the under in this game for your NFL picks as well.
If you’re looking at trying a Same-Game Parlay for this game, you can try to look at under for Bears running backs and under for Steelers pass catchers. This game feels like we’ll get a Bears cover. A full touchdown favorite with a 39 total is kind of crazy.
