MLB Home Run Derby Picks July 14: Cal Raleigh Is Severely Overrated
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Rainman M.
- July 14, 2025
Top Home Run Derby Pick: Matt Olson To Make Semifinals (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s Home Run Derby.
This will be a three-round event. In the first round, participants will try to hit as many home runs as they can in three minutes or 40 pitches. The Derby then moves to head-to-head matchups for the following rounds.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Matt Olson and Junior Caminero.
2025 Home Run Derby
Monday, July 14, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Truist Park
Avoiding the Favorite
In the Home Run Derby, we have a great opportunity to cash in on players who are underrated by oddsmakers and are posted at attractive prices. This opportunity exists because players get favored for this event for bad reasons.
When deciding who to invest in, bettors look at regular-season success. On the surface, it makes sense to expect the best home run hitters in regular season play to also be the best home run hitters in the Home Run Derby.
Consider, however, that, in the past 27 years, it only happened twice that the Derby winner went on to lead the MLB in home runs. This bodes poorly for current home run leader Cal Raleigh, who is the second-biggest favorite to win this event.
Raleigh’s Form
There are multiple significant reasons to dislike Raleigh:
- First of all, he is a catcher. It is very rare for a catcher to win the Derby. Catchers are disadvantaged by the extra wear that they endure at their position.
- As evident in his current form, Raleigh is experiencing this wear. This month, he has 5 hits in 39 at-bats. One must doubt his energy level and physical fitness tonight.
More Reasons to Dislike Raleigh
Moreover, Raleigh is a switch-hitter. He plans to hit from both sides of the plate tonight.
This plan presents a complexity that other batters will not have to face, as they can simply focus on seeing the ball and swinging from a single side of the plate. Adley Rutschman, the last event participant to hit as both a lefty and a righty, failed to make it out of the first round.
Another significant reason to avoid investing in Raleigh is that his dad is pitching to him.
While the sentimental part of us might like to see Raleigh and his dad succeed together, the reality is that it is very rare for a slugger to win this event with his father pitching to him. When we look at different participants, it will be clear that a pitcher’s biological relation to the batter does not make him one of the better pitching options.
Avoid Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz, tonight’s favorite, is not worth investing in. While different metrics speak in his favor, the simple reality is that his fitness cannot be counted on.
On Saturday, he sustained a hip injury that forced him to leave his game. He did not play yesterday as a result of this injury.
The Home Run Derby demands endurance, and a batter’s hip flexor is obviously a major part of his swing. Cruz can’t be relied upon to hold up.
Stay Away From James Wood
The third-biggest favorite is James Wood. He, too, is worth staying away from because he is more of an opposite-field guy.
It took him almost a month of regular-season play to pull a batted ball. The low rate at which he pulls makes him a bad candidate tonight. Pulling is what you want. A batter who pulls more will have a better chance of easily hitting more home runs. It is generally harder to go opposite field.
First Guy I Like
The first participant I want to invest in is Matt Olson.
Olson has three major factors in his favor:
- Of tonight’s participants, he boasts the highest average exit velocity after the banged-up Cruz. This means that he can be counted on to have an easier time hitting balls harder.
- He has participated in a Derby before, giving him experience, which, among other things, constitutes a basis for composure and, in this way, helps one live up to one’s physical potential.
- As a player for the Braves, he gets to participate in front of his home crowd.
Let’s recall what Mariner Julio Rodriguez did when the Derby was in Seattle. Rodriguez was so amped up that he hit the most first-round home runs in Derby history with 41 homers. So expect the home crowd to give Olson extra motivation.
The price is cheap for him to advance past the first round.
Home Run Derby Pick: Matt Olson To Make Semifinals (-105) at BetOnline
My Favorite Slugger
My favorite player to invest in is Junior Caminero.
Bettors focus on the batters, but we need to see the Derby as a 50-50 event. Batters hit pitches, yes, but they can only hit the pitches that their pitcher throws to them.
Caminero has the best batting practice pitcher tonight in Tomas Francisco. Francisco’s experience substantiates this claim: he was the pitcher for Randy Arozarena when Arozarena was the runner-up two years ago.
Other pitchers have experience throwing to batters before regular season games, but the Derby is obviously a special event with a special goal (hitting home runs off easy pitches), so Francisco’s experience is eminently valuable.
Folks cast doubt on Caminero’s outlook tonight because of his lack of fly balls. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who won the Derby in 2023, was also a guy who hit few fly balls.
In two respects, Caminero has the physical and mechanical qualities that he needs to succeed tonight.
Fast Swing, Hard Hits—It’s Simple Physics
He has elite bat speed. This is an objectively measured fact. It is basic science: swinging fast entails swinging hard. Because he can more easily swing fast, he can more easily swing hard.
This means that he’ll more easily hit more home runs. He’ll be able to display his physical prowess without expending as much energy, making him a uniquely solid candidate to advance into the deepest part of this competition.
Mechanics Boost Elevation, Power Follows Naturally
He has altered his mechanics to add more elevation to his batted balls. This is evident in the significant increase in attack angle that he has experienced as the first half of the season progress.
Since June, his attack angle is higher than Cruz’s, for example. He’ll reliably hit hard and clear the wall.
All of the ingredients are there for Caminero, who is so attractively priced, to win. The price is fantastic for him to just make the finals.
Home Run Derby Pick: Junior Caminero To Make Finals (+450) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
