Now that the season has begun, oddsmakers have begun to figure things out regarding who is likelier or less likely to win the Heisman.
Arch Manning was favored to win the Heisman purely because of his last name, but he has failed to live up to the hype. Oddsmakers still have a lot to learn, though, as John Mateer is inexplicably favored when his stat line doesn’t justify this level of optimism.
There are other problems with the Heisman trophy odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) that we can exploit for our best NCAAF bets.
2025-26 Heisman Trophy Odds
| Player | Candidate |
|---|---|
| John Mateer | +750 |
| Garrett Nussmeier | +900 |
| Dante Moore | +950 |
| Carson Beck | +1000 |
| Arch Manning | +1200 |
| LaNorris Sellers | +1400 |
| Gunner Stockton | +1400 |
| Cade Klubnik | +1800 |
| Jeremiah Smith | +1800 |
| Drew Allar | +1800 |
Heisman Trophy Contenders, Sleepers to Watch
Thomas Castellanos (+2500)
It might seem strange that I am mentioning a player who is not strongly favored, but my point here is that this is a great year to invest in less-favored players.
John Mateer is favored at +750 after an underwhelming game against Michigan in which he threw one touchdown pass and one interception. Garrett Nussmeier at +900 is also tough to swallow because of how conservative he’s been.
The favorites, in short, look underwhelming.
Castellanos looks like a great option at +2500 after his Seminoles amassed 31 points against Alabama. Castellanos has completed almost 70 percent of his passes while throwing three touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and running for 85 yards.
His highest-ranked opponent is a Miami team whose defense was putrid last year and remains underwhelming. The softness of Castellanos’ competition is part of what makes it worthwhile to invest in.
Jeremiyah Love (+4000)
History certainly shows that a running back can win the Heisman.
Jeremiyah Love was a salient feature of Notre Dame’s title run last year when he ran for 1,125 yards on 6.9 YPC and amassed 17 rushing touchdowns along with 237 receiving yards.
Notre Dame’s offensive line is laden with guys who already boasted starting experience entering this year. With a quarterback who looked very good in his season opener, Love has sufficient supporting talent. He just needs to get the ball more.
Unfortunately for Notre Dame, it took time for the Irish coaching staff to realize, in their season-opener, that they needed to get Love more involved. In the fourth quarter, Notre Dame scored 17 points and ultimately almost won the game largely because of Love.
Expect greater involvement from him going forward, as he builds off his season last year.
Jeremiah Smith (+1800)
Ohio State’s elite wide receiver is a physical freak of nature. He is well-sized, but also moves incredibly well.
Last year, he displayed his unique athleticism when he led his team in receiving. He even had 304 more receiving yards than Emeka Egbuka, who is now an effective weapon for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It is not a stretch to say that Smith, a first-team preseason All-American, is the best player in college football right now.
He is also on the best team, the number-one-ranked Buckeyes. This makes it easier for Smith to get noticed. When a team wins games, everyone on that team has an easier chance of looking good.
Smith gets to encounter a Huskies team that gave up 21 points to Colorado State, and several vulnerable opponents that his team’s pass attack will thrive against, while he will continue to play a salient role.
Register at Top Sportsbooks
You’ll want to invest in future bets and in other top NCAAF bets that will boost your bankroll. Be sure to know what the top sportsbooks are so that you can register there and shop around for the best prices.
Heisman Betting Tips and Trends
We can predict the future by learning from the past. So let‘s look at the last five Heisman winners.
- Travis Hunter
- Jayden Daniels
- Caleb Williams
- Bryce Young
- DeVonta Smith
When deciding who to wager on, bettors tend to be prejudiced against players who aren‘t quarterbacks. But recent history invalidates this prejudice. Just over half of the five latest winners were quarterbacks.
A bettor’s line of attack is to look at high-profile teams. Colorado became high-profile when it hired Deion Sanders to become head coach. Three of the previous four winners before Travis Hunter played for big-name SEC schools.
Looking at the players as individuals, putting up big numbers is obviously crucial. So, you should be looking at team schedules to consider which Heisman candidates face more manageable opponents.
However, many winners aren‘t necessarily the best overall player or the best at their position. They do need to stand out from the rest of the pack in some way, as Hunter did with his ability to play offense and defense. Consider which players have a strong supporting cast and, relatedly, recognize that team success is a pivotal factor in how players are perceived.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
