We’ve got a Southeast division showdown as the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat travel to Washington to take on the struggling Wizards. After a promising start to the season, the Wizards have fallen way off the pace in terms of the playoff race. Miami comes into this one as big road favorites at the NBA odds so let’s take a closer look to see if we can cash in tonight.
Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards
Monday, February 07, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Capital One Arena
Heat Way Is Working This Season
If you are familiar with the NBA and its many storylines, then you should know what the "Heat Way" is, especially as much as they love to talk about it in Miami. I will admit, as much as it gets on my nerves to hear them constantly bring it up, it's very real.
For example, when the Heat acquired Kyle Lowry from the Raptors, I knew he was a Heat guy. Toughness, hard work, and not making excuses are part of the culture in Miami that was created by one of the toughest characters in NBA history: Pat Riley.
The Heat Way is the reason they have the best record in the Eastern Conference despite not having some of their key pieces for extended periods. Tonight they take on the Washington Wizards who are second from bottom in the division.
Miami comes into this game as a -5.5 favorite which makes sense considering the Wizards will be without Bradley Beal tonight. In their last six games, the Wizards are only averaging 97 points per game and it's hard to imagine that will improve without Beal who is their only consistent offensive player.
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Wizards Inconsistency on Both Ends Key to Total
The total for this game opened at 216 points and has been steamed all the way down to 209. Obviously, Beal's absence has a lot to do with that but I also think that the opening number was way too high, even if Beal was available.
We've already covered Washington's offensive futility recently and when you add Miami's stellar defense to that mix, I don't see how Washington scores 100 points in this game.
As for the Heat, they play at the second-slowest pace in the league so you would think that their totals would play to the under but that's actually not the case. On the season, the Heat are 33-21 to the over which means only 39% of their games have gone under. Despite that, my official NBA pick on this game is the under.
The reason I'm going with the under is the status of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro who are both listed as questionable right now. Add Bradley Beal's absence to that mix and that's a lot of points not available tonight.
To take that a step further, if you had to list the most consistent scorers from both teams, these guys would probably be in anyone's top three so we have a situation where shots will be coming from less reliable scorers.
So despite the total losing a ton of value from where it opened, I truly believe that there's little chance that both teams score over 100 tonight. I actually think the total will struggle to reach 200 which is why my official play is Under 209 (-110) at one of our best sportsbooks.
NBA Pick: Under 209 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
