The real NBA playoffs begin this Saturday afternoon when the No. 6 seed Miami Heat (40-32) take on the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks (46-26) on ESPN. It was just last postseason when the Heat stunned the top-seeded Bucks in the second round, winning the series in five games. The Heat hope to return to the Finals while the Bucks can get some revenge for last season.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, May 22, 2021 – 02:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee is a 4.5-point favorite at many top sportsbooks. These teams met last Saturday, and the Bucks won 122-108, but Jimmy Butler sat out for Miami. In fact, Butler was inactive for all three meetings with the Bucks this season. This week Butler said “I think I’m stupidly locked in” when it comes to stepping up his game in the playoffs. With a week to rest his back, Butler should be ready to go in this one as the Bucks have their starting five intact as well.
What Happened Last Time?
There is more pressure on the Bucks to win after the disappointing postseasons the last two years in an Eastern Conference that saw LeBron James take his talents out west. That was supposed to clear the path to the Finals for two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The fast-paced Bucks have led the league in scoring three years in a row, and they were statistically the best team in the NBA in the last two regular seasons. But neither season produced an appearance in the Finals, and this season the Bucks still finished No. 4 in Net Rating, so they remain an elite team with title hopes as Giannis is in his prime.
Last year was odd with the bubble and zero home-court advantage. Still, Miami nearly swept the Bucks in a shocking second-round upset. Miami won two of the first three games by double digits, Butler hit clutch free throws to win a close Game 2, and Giannis injured his ankle in Game 3. He only played 11 minutes in Game 4, an overtime win by the Bucks to avoid the sweep. But without Giannis in Game 5, the Bucks shot a pathetic 36.3% from the field and lost 103-94 to end their season.
It is not like Miami shot lights out in the series. The Heat’s 3P% ranged from 35.5% to 38.7% in the five games. The problem was Milwaukee shot so poorly. The Bucks were the fourth-most reliant offense on the three-point shot last season, but they only shot 32.7% from three in the five-game series, including three games under 30%.
Injury aside, Giannis was not at an MVP-level when the Heat took a 3-0 series lead. In the first three games, he averaged 22.7 points and shot 45.1% from the field. Butler got the better of the star matchup, averaging 23.4 points and shooting 53.2% in the series.
Khris Middleton, the proposed Robin to Giannis’ Batman, has been a shaky playoff performer in his career. He is a career 46% shooter, but he has shot worse than 40% in half of his eight playoff series, and under 42% in three-fourths of them.
What Changes This Year?
On Tuesday, Giannis was candid with the media in saying that this year may not go any differently. The Bucks have to prove they can win consistently in the playoffs. One change they made this year was swapping out Eric Bledsoe, who shot 33.3% against Miami in the playoffs, for Jrue Holiday, who finished the 2020-21 season with a career-high FG% (50.3%) and 3P% (39.2%).
Milwaukee does not shoot the three as often this season, but it improved its success rate from 17th in the league to No. 4 this season at 38.9%. Meanwhile, Miami only ranks 19th in 3P% (35.8%) this season, falling from No. 2 in 2019-20. Duncan Robinson is their specialist for that, but he had a better season last year.
These teams met three times this year with Milwaukee going 2-1, but the first two meetings were back-to-back games in late December. The Bucks pounded Miami 144-97 despite Antetokounmpo only scoring nine points, but again, Butler missed every game against Milwaukee this season. Then again, nothing would have stopped the onslaught of Milwaukee hitting 29 three-pointers, an NBA record. The Heat won the next night, 119-108, after dominating the fourth quarter while the Bucks shot ice cold (39.2%, the team’s second-worst game of the season). Goran Dragic had a season-high 26 points and the Heat will need him to shine in this matchup.
When these teams met last Saturday, the Heat had no real reason to play Butler with their playoff position locked up. Milwaukee led 44-28 after the first quarter and won easily, 122-108. With two of the games happening in December and Butler being out for all three, there is not much useful data to come from these matchups to predict how this series will go. The only thing clear is that Miami does not have some secret sauce formula to upset the Bucks again.
Both teams do however enter the playoffs hot, wining eight of their last 10, and ranking in the top five in Offensive Rating. There should be only fresh legs in Game 1 with the players having all this rest since last weekend.
The Bucks are 3-5 in Game 1 in the Giannis era, so they could use a quick start to begin the change to their playoff narrative.
Prediction
This has a chance to be a great series. Milwaukee was not a good bet in the regular season, only covering 44.4% of the time. However, Miami is 9-14 ATS as an underdog, and that was the sixth-worst record this year.
Milwaukee plays at the second-fastest pace while the Heat are the second slowest and only rank 25th in points per game this season. The Heat is 8-21 (.276) when allowing at least 110 points, and Milwaukee only had 14 games where it did not hit that mark. For my NBA picks, I am going to trust Giannis and the Bucks to come out with a purpose and cover the spread in this one.
NBA Pick: Bucks -4.5 (-110) at Bovada
