The Miami Heat couldn’t come away with a victory in triple-overtime on Saturday. After a day of rest, can they topple the Boston Celtics to start a six-game road trip? Read on for some high-quality betting advice and start cashing out at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Monday, January 31, 2022 – 7:30 PM EST at TD Garden
Miami Once Again Waiting on Jimmy Butler’s Status
Coming into the game we covered and cashed with the Heat on Friday, Jimmy Butler was questionable with a toe injury, but ultimately played both Friday and Saturday’s games. However, after the triple-overtime thriller to the Raptors on Saturday, once again the Heat are waiting on the status of Butler, who has suffered another small injury that has him in danger of missing the game.
After playing three overtimes, it’s entirely possible that the Heat give their banged-up star a night off on this road game if he isn’t completely healthy. While the Heat have played well this season, I think we can all agree that they have yet to hit their full potential. With injuries and health and safety protocols, they have not been completely healthy all season. No matter Butler’s status, that will continue tonight too.
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Despite this, they are currently a half-game up on the Chicago Bulls for the east’s top spot. This is a huge testament to their coaching and depth after missing Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry (who is out again tonight) for long stretches of the season.
If Butler isn’t able to play in this game, it may be all the Celtics need to cash and cover. While Boston has had its’ issues this season on offense, its defense has been one of the best units in the NBA, especially when they play at home.
If Butler doesn’t play and the Celtics can focus their defense on the other members of the Heat’s guard core, it will make winning this game much easier for them and it may make cashing our NBA pick easier too.
The Sharp Pick
However, with Butler’s status in doubt, plus me not being able to trust the C’s as far as I could throw them, I’m staying away from the spread. Instead, the first half total has a little value poking out and I’m going to fire at it before the sportsbooks wise up and move the odds down. With the first-half total of 107, the under looks like a nice little value for several reasons.
First, if Butler misses, those NBA odds will disappear very quickly. Even if he plays, his defense against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be very welcome to the under. On top of that, we’re dealing with two very good first-half defenses. In the case of the Celtics, they have been red-hot on defense lately.
Over their last five games, the Celtics are holding opponents to just 92.6 points per 100 possessions in the first halves, which easily tops the NBA over that same stretch for all 30 teams. They are also first in the NBA overall team’s last 10 games, with a 99.2 first-half defensive rating.
Over their last nine home games, Boston is holding opponents to just 95.9 points per 100 possessions in the first half, and even with the talented Heat coming into town, the game will still play towards the under.
Despite the full game total being super low at 208, the first half total of 107 points leaves some room to play the under, assuming the game starts out tough and slower-paced. Neither of these teams plays very fast, so it’s possible one or both of these teams fail to reach 50 first-half points.
NBA Pick: Under 107 First Half (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
