Friday Night College Football Bowl CFP: Best Bets for December 26th

Swinging Johnson
December 24, 2025

As we review the NCAAF odds, we find three bowl games on the Friday night slate, but the Rate Bowl between New Mexico and Minnesota, which will be starting at 4:30 PM on ESPN, has caught our attention. We have a sharp side along with a solid player prop in this one.

Our Friday night football bets show New Mexico on a six-game winning streak entering this postseason matchup, while Minnesota has dropped three of their last five but ended the season with a 17-7 win over Wisconsin.

Our college football bets on Friday night agree with the AI predictions made by BMR’s proprietary algorithm, which shows underdog New Mexico posting a mild upset of Minnesota by a mere two points.

Best Bets for New Mexico vs. Minnesota

After researching tonight’s NCAAF odds, we see that Minnesota is a 2-2 ½ point favorite, despite their opponents currently riding a six-game winning streak. The Lobos check in with a 9-3 mark but were treading water at 3-3 before they caught fire down the stretch.

Minnesota enters this postseason tilt with a 7-5 straight-up mark but has not been kind at the betting windows, as evidenced by their 4-7-1 ATS record. Yet, the Gophers had a successful regular-season finale with a 10-point win over Wisconsin, covering as 2 ½ point home dogs.

Friday Rate Bowl Odds (Minnesota -2 ½)

The NCAAF odds on this bowl battle between New Mexico and Minnesota in the Rate Bowl reveal that there has been a bit of a lean on the neutral-site underdog, as Minnesota opened as 3-point favorites, but that number has dropped to Minnesota -2 ½ or as low as -2 at some of the best online sportsbooks.

That is not entirely surprising considering the heater that the Lobos have been on, but when sportsbooks get off the most important number in football (3), you know that the money pouring in on New Mexico has to be sharp.

Friday Rate Bowl Picks (New Mexico +2 ½)

BMR’s algorithm model predicts a 25-23 Lobos victory, which sounds about right to me, considering New Mexico has been on fire over their last six games, covering the number in four of those six contests. In short, the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite, and if you were to eschew the points in favor of the moneyline, UNM would fetch you +116 at Bookmaker.

It is important to keep in mind that Minnesota is not a bad team and proved they still have some gas left in the tank when they upset Wisconsin, 17-7, in their last regular-season game as 2 ½ point home dogs. However, the Gophers’ offense leaves much to be desired.

Consider the following regarding Minnesota’s offensive attack that more closely resembles a mild affront.

Minnesota total yards (296.6 – 128th) vs. UNM total yards allowed (349/4 – 49th)
Minnesota rushing yards (103.1 – 130th) vs. UNM rushing yards allowed (113.4 – 24th)
Minnesota passing yards (193.5 – 105th) vs. UNM passing yards allowed (236 – 94th)
Minnesota points scored (23.2 – 102nd) vs. UNM points allowed (22.5 – 48th)

The NCAA odds have dropped a full point on Minnesota, which sounds like the sharps are all over the Lobos. Although sharp action is no guarantee of an ATS cover, and we would rather have the Lobos +3 than +2 ½, we expect New Mexico to win this game outright.

Expert Pick: New Mexico +2 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

Minnesota Team Total Under 24 ½ Points

Minnesota is a team that struggles to score points. They are ranked 102nd or higher in all the major offensive statistical categories, and the Gophers averaged just 18.2 points over their last five games.

Although New Mexico cannot be classified as a steely, elite defense, they are more than capable of shutting down this anemic Minnesota attack. After reviewing the NCAAF team props page, this prop appears to have the most significant value. I anticipate a low-scoring affair with the Lobos coming out on top.

Expert Pick: Minnesota Under 24 ½ Points (-165) at Bovada

Make Your Football Bets Now

Getting in the game with an opinion that makes you cash is what it’s all about. The only way to do that is to open an account at one or more of the most trustworthy, reliable, and reputable sportsbooks in the industry, like the several online sportsbooks featured at Bookmakers Review.

Remember, the lines and odds don’t stay stagnant. They move, so why not review our Friday night football bets on New Mexico +2 ½ and under Minnesota’s 24 ½ team points and get down now when the numbers are on our side? Lock in on a line at top offshore sportsbooks like Bovada and Bookmaker, and you’ll never have to worry that you missed out on value.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.