Fresno State has a shot of playing in the Mountain West Conference title game but the Bulldogs need a win Thursday at San Jose State and some help. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Jose State Spartans
Thursday, November 25, 2021 – 03:30 PM EST at CEFCU Stadium
You might be asking why this game Mountain West Conference matchup between Fresno State and San Jose State (the Battle for the Valley Trophy) is Thursday afternoon – because it’s the American Thanksgiving holiday. Of course, there are also three NFL games on Thursday. This will start right as Bears-Lions should be ending and a bit before Raiders-Cowboys gets underway.
Fresno State is 27-19 all-time against San Jose State. They weren’t able to play last season because the game was canceled due to COVID. SJSU won the most recent matchup 17-16 at home on Nov. 30, 2019, on a DeJon Parker 10-yard TD run with 2:11 remaining.
The home team is 9-4-1 against the spread at BMR’s top-rated books in the past 14 meetings.
Bulldogs Coach in Demand
Fresno State (8-3) is second in the West Division of the Mountain West at 5-2 in league play behind San Diego State, which is 6-1 in the league.
However, the Bulldogs beat the Aztecs 30-20 in an upset on Oct. 30. Thus, if Fresno wins this game and SDSU loses Friday at home to Boise State – which is very possible as San Diego State opened as a 2.5-point underdog on the NCAAF odds – then FSU would advance to the conference title game maybe against Boise.
The Bulldogs have one of the best quarterbacks you might not know about in senior Jake Haener, a former transfer from Washington. Haener has completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 3,467 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 picks.
FSU has been off since routing New Mexico 34-7 on Nov. 13. Haener was 24-for-31 for 300 yards and 3 scores. It was Haener’s seventh 300-yard game of the season, which is third-most in school history in a season.
Ronnie Rivers, one of the Mountain West’s top running backs, became Fresno State’s all-time leader in career rushing touchdowns with his first score of the game in the first quarter. The senior has rushed for 723 yards and five scores on the year and caught 29 balls for 273 yards and a TD.
Fresno State shut out New Mexico in the first half, the third time this season the Bulldog defense held the opponent scoreless in the first half. New Mexico only had 46 offensive plays, the fewest by a Bulldog opponent since 2009.
Don’t be surprised if Fresno coach Kalen DeBoer is hired away by a Power 5 school soon. He has been mentioned for openings at Washington, Washington State, and USC. The 47-year-old oversees a Fresno State offense that averages 33 points (second in MW) and 461.5 yards per game (first).
The Bulldogs are 10-4-1 ATS on the NCAAF odds in their past 15 as road favorites.
Spartans Need Win for Bowl
San Jose State (5-6, 3-4 Mountain West) beat Boise State in last year’s Mountain West title game but won’t even reach a bowl game this season without an upset here. The Spartans also last played on Nov. 13 and were spanked at home by Utah State 48-17.
SJSU has had very uneven QB play from starter Nick Starkel, a transfer from Arkansas. The senior is completing just 52.9 percent of his passes for 1,385 yards, 9 TDs, and 7 picks. Backup Nick Nash hasn’t been much better. They probably both will play in this one.
Starkel had just 138 yards on 29 attempts in the loss to Utah State. The Spartans actually led that game 14-0 at one point. The SJSU offense was 1-for-12 on third down and had a season-low of 12 rushing yards.
Inside linebackers coach and special teams coordinator Scott White is one of 59 nominees for the annual Broyles Award recognizing the top assistant coach in the country. His star linebacker is Kyle Harmon who leads the country in total tackles (121) and is fourth nationally in tackles per game (11.0).
Opponents have rushed for only 8 touchdowns against that defense. In addition, San Jose State is among the national leaders with 4 blocked kicks.
SJSU is 2-5 against the spread on the NCAAF odds in its past seven after a loss. For our NCAAF picks, we will give the points here as simulations I have run have FSU winning 28-21 – I would recommend doing an alternate line of -6.5 to be safe.
NCAAF Pick: Fresno State -7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
