Now that the NFL season is over, fans have to wait for a football-related sporting event to bet on. Thankfully, they don’t have to wait until August. Instead, they only have to wait until the start of the 2022 NFL Draft.
This is one of the most surprising NFL Drafts in recent history. There is no consensus QB1 or top pick. There is more depth, but the top of the draft is lacking when you compare it to other years. Plenty of quarterbacks will be drafted, but they lack the value necessary to go first overall.
Who will be the first player taken? How many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round? Will anyone take a running back? All of these questions will be answered, and they are all things you can bet on.
As of right now, there is only one bet available. More will fill in as the NFL Scouting Combine approaches, but we have one today. So, where are some general suggestions as the draft draws nearer and a value pick for the one available bet for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Bet Against Running Backs in the First Round
The value of a running back is debated every year. Are they worth spending first-round capital on? In almost every situation, the answer is no. There are a few rare occasions. Najee Harris made sense, and players like Zeke Elliot and Saquon Barkley were not going to go past the first handful of picks. You can debate their value now, but they were outliers as prospects.
This year, no one is worth that value. There are plenty of great running backs, but all have some concern. Some aren’t capable of playing in pass protection. Others are bad receiving backs. Even the best running backs don’t have the breakaway speed necessary to go in the first round.
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Also, the running back group is surprisingly deep this year. There will be a plethora of players available on the last day of the NFL Draft. The value of taking someone like Dameon Pierce or Brian Robinson on Day 3 is better than taking a stab at Breece Hall early in the draft.
You won’t find great value here, but it is safe to say that no running back will go in the first round in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Who Will be QB1?
This year, there is no Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence. Every quarterback has solid traits and red flags. Malik Willis has a great arm, but he lacks accuracy and didn’t play against top talent at Liberty. Kenny Pickett was productive at Pitt, but his hand size is a concern. He also is one of the oldest quarterback prospects ever.
Right now, it is hard to say who will be QB1. However, I would narrow it down to three quarterbacks. Pickett came in as the favorite, but he is third on my list with the poor Senior Bowl and the small hands. Fumbles will be an issue, and some teams simply won’t draft a quarterback with hands as small as his. You can say it is a stupid way to think, but it is the truth.
The other two candidates are Willis and Matt Corral. Corral was a great quarterback for Ole Miss, but injuries were a concern. He was the only top quarterback who wasn’t at the Senior Bowl, but the struggles from the rest of the roster actually helped him. We’ll see if he can show off at the combine and his pro day.
Willis is a raw talent, but he has an elite ceiling. If you’re going to take a risk on any of these quarterbacks, you might as well swing for the fences.
Who Will Go First Overall?
In my eyes, the first overall pick is a two-man race between Evan Neal and Aidan Hutchison. Hutchison is the top pick, but I love the value of Evan Neal at +185.
The Jaguars have invested in the edge position the past few off-seasons. They could use a player as solid as Hutchison, but this isn’t a gaping need. The real question is who will protect Trevor Lawrence’s blindside?
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Cam Robinson was on the franchise tag, and he isn’t locked for the future. Adding a young left tackle would be huge for Lawrence, and it’s what the Jaguars should do.
