Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA future odds. With the All-Star break upon us, it’s the perfect time to examine those odds.
For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in more of a long-shot, a dark horse whom NBA oddsmakers are underrating, to win the NBA Championship.
Criteria
In my previous NBA futures article, I discussed certain things that an NBA champion must have. As a reminder, one of those things was regular-season success.
Recent NBA champions — dating back to 2005 — tend to have been one of the strongest regular-season teams.
Moreover, three-point shooting is a strong point of emphasis in today’s modern NBA. NBA champs, especially the more recent ones, tend to be highly efficient from behind the arc.
They also need to defend well. The reason why defense is important is basically the same: winning basketball games is all about winning possessions. When teams get threes instead of twos and when they stop the opposing team from scoring more, then they’ll win more games.
Finally, an NBA champion has to have that x-factor or superstar who will carry the team on his shoulders, who will support his team by having massive statistical outputs, and, if necessary, by being clutch.
For my NBA pick, I chose a team (Golden State) that easily checks off those boxes.
However, it is also worth investing in a dark horse because of the excellent payout offered by top-rated sportsbooks for the case that a long-shot wins.
I supported my case for Golden State with stats and tendencies, but it’s a long season and there is still time for teams to check certain boxes.
For example, the last nine teams ranked top-nine in three-point percentage. My current NBA pick does not currently rank top-nine in the category. But there’s still plenty of time for my favorite dark horse to check that box.
Of course, a champion can defy a trend while still proving its significance. For example, it’s very plausible that an NBA champ ranks tenth in the category instead of ninth.
VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR’s Free Expert Sports Betting Picks for Today
My Dark Horse
Without further ado, the dark horse team that I recommend investing in is the Boston Celtics.
Thanks to a recent surge — the Celtics have won 9 of their last 10 games — Boston is 4.5 games back from the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
They have more than enough time, therefore, to have one of the NBA’s highest win percentages in the regular season, which is just what recent NBA champions tend to have.
Defense is already a non-issue for Boston. The Celtics own the second-best defensive rating right now.
Their defensive rating has been stronger especially in more recent play because the Celtics started the season with a new coach who had to get his team to understand and buy into his concepts. These early-season struggles make Boston’s superb defense look worse than it is.
Marcus Smart, a multiple-time NBA All-Defense First Team selection, is well-known for his defense. Beyond Smart, the Celtics boast a nice collection of size and versatility. They can go big and they can go smaller.
They’ll suffocate an opponent and force a lot of turnovers. In general, they make it hard for opponents to get up easy shots.
As for three-point shooting, I think it will get there. By far, Boston’s two highest-volume three-point shooters are Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Both star players combine for fairly close to half of their team’s three-point shot attempts.
However, the Celtics have been thriving as both players underperform massively from behind the arc relative to what they have been doing throughout their entire careers.
Tatum is currently shooting 32.9% from deep which is 5.1% off his career average.
Brown’s three-point percentage is 35.3%, which is 2% off his career average. 2% might not seem like a ton but recall his high volume.
Moreover, Al Horford likes to shoot threes at a decent volume. He’s an apt floor-stretcher who is also underperforming from behind the arc relative to his career average.
If these three players simply do what they’ve always been known to do, then Boston’s team three-point percentage will skyrocket.
Finally, Tatum is an absolute x-factor, a guy who can put up 50 points in a game when he has to.
Given his monster scoring outputs and his game-changing individual efforts, it’s fair to say that he’s been snubbed from All-NBA considerations in the past.
For the above reasons, invest in Boston with your best bets.
NBA Pick: Celtics (+2800) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
