Purdue and Illinois battled last week in an exciting affair that saw a lot of highlights and ended in a 43-27 victory for the Illini. We can count on Purdue’s defense contributing excitement to its team’s games. USC and Kansas, with their respective defenses, are similarly exciting. Our college football picks for week 7 will center on games involving such entertaining teams.
Pass Defense Matters
This week, I like Texas Tech to cover against Kansas, the Purdue-Minnesota over to hit, and Michigan to cover against USC. What relates these games to each other is the centrality of passing: the outcome in those games will be determined by which team has a stronger pass defense than its opponent.
Kansas will lose big because its defense has proven unable to handle good starting quarterbacks. Purdue and Minnesota will score a lot of points, as each team faces negligible resistance from its opponent’s pass defense.
Finally, Michigan’s pass defense will, especially with a healthier secondary, prove superior to USC’s.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech (-14.5)
Texas Tech has proven itself to be a dominant team this year. The Red Raiders have won all of their games by 24 points or more. One of their victims even included 16th-ranked Utah, whom they dominated at Utah.
Their win over the Utes is particularly relevant to this game because Utah’s quarterback is a dual-threat quarterback who has run for over 80 yards in two different games. Against Texas Tech, however, Utah’s quarterback had by far the worst game of his season, as measured by passer rating. His Utes mustered ten points.
Whereas Kansas, with its dual-threat quarterback, will struggle on offense, the Red Raiders will thrive offensively with their quarterback, who boasts a 177.9 passer rating. As evidenced by when the Jayhawks surrendered 42 points to Missouri and 37 points to Cincinnati, they cannot contain strong passing attacks.
Expert Pick: Texas Tech -14.5 (-103) at BetOnline
Purdue vs. Minnesota (-9.5)
Against Power Four opponents, Purdue has allowed 33 points to USC, 56 to Notre Dame, and 43 to Illinois. The total for this game is lower than last week’s, when Purdue and Illinois combined for 70 points, because Minnesota generally doesn’t score many points. Minnesota’s offensive struggles against the likes of Ohio State, with its elite defense, create value in the “over” by deflating the posted total. The key is that the Golden Gophers can score a lot of points. They scored 31 against Rutgers, for example, whose defense ranks much higher than Purdue’s.
Against Rutgers, Minnesota’s quarterback amassed 324 yards and three passing touchdowns. He’ll thrive against Purdue’s pass defense, which ranks second-to-last at limiting the opposing passer rating. Purdue’s very pass-heavy offense will also score a lot of points against Minnesota’s pass defense, which ranks 118th at limiting the opponent’s passer rating.
Expert Pick: Over 51.5 9 (-110) at BetOnline
Michigan vs. USC (-2.5)
If you look at Michigan’s game against Nebraska, then you might conclude that the Trojans will score many points, via their pass attack, against Michigan. However, the Wolverines were debilitated by injuries in their secondary when they played against Nebraska. This Michigan pass defense is healthy now, especially with vital safety Rod Moore having rediscovered his form in last week’s 24-10 win over Wisconsin. Moore wasn’t even playing when a reasonably healthy Michigan pass defense limited former Heisman favorite Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer to his worst performance of the season.
On offense, the Wolverines boast a running back in Justice Haynes who amassed over six YPC in both of his games against a top-five rushing defense. Michigan’s developing quarterback gets to face USC’s 96th-ranked pass defense.
Expert Pick: Michigan +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Place Your Week 7 Bets Now!
For Saturday’s games, I love Texas Tech, the Purdue-Minnesota over, and Michigan. You’ll want to take advantage of these best bets by registering at top sportsbooks and betting before the odds change too much.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
