Last week saw Alabama triumph with a win over favored SEC rival Georgia. Duke also made a statement with a blowout win against a Syracuse team that had just won at Clemson. While Duke and Alabama have certainly quieted some doubters, it’s imperative for our NCAAF best bets that we ascribe significance to the role that matchup factors play every week in deciding the outcome of games.
Some Teams Are Still Very Underrated
While some teams triumph in a given week primarily because they benefited from a favorable matchup, it is also true that oddsmakers in general underrate certain teams. Two of those teams are Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Despite its explosive success this season, for Week 6, Vanderbilt is heavily underdogged against a Bama team that has proven to be very imperfect this season. Mississippi State, likewise, is dogged by even more points against Texas A&M.
As for Duke and California, the home dog is the only playable side in a game that should be even. This matchup is an even one because each team’s offense enjoys a strong outlook against the opposing defense.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5)
Stop seeing Vanderbilt as Vanderbilt. The Commodores are a good team now, ranking 16th in the latest AP poll. In particular, their offense is prolific, ranking number one with 50 points per game. Vanderbilt’s offensive prowess makes it a must-bet as such a heavy underdog because there is no way that Alabama can score enough points to cover the spread.
In Week 1, Alabama’s defense exhibited its characteristic vulnerability to opposing mobile quarterbacks when Florida State scored 31 points in a huge upset win. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, who just collected six touchdowns last week, will replicate the success that Florida State’s quarterback enjoyed against the Crimson Tide.
Alabama’s latest success has hinged on the strong play of quarterback Ty Simpson. Vanderbilt’s pass defense is sufficiently good, though, statistically ranking middle-of-the-road.
Given the spread and the quality of Vanderbilt’s offense, the Commodores will easily cover.
Expert Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-14)
This spread reflects how slow oddsmakers are to make adjustments. Mississippi State’s ATS record is perfect because the Bulldogs remain very underrated. Most recently, they took 7.5-point favorite Tennessee to overtime.
As evident last week and in its high season-long rush play percentage, Mississippi State relies heavily on its ground game. The Bulldogs’ rush offense ranks similarly to Notre Dame’s. Notre Dame scored 40 points against Texas A&M largely by running the ball 39 times. Mississippi State can replicate this success against an Aggies rush defense whose statistical ranking has benefited from the softness of its competition.
Texas A&M’s offense does not have the firepower to cover such a large spread, particularly in a game where its defense will struggle so extensively. The Aggies have only pulled away from UTSA and Utah State. Mississippi State will use its strong rush attack to remain competitive.
Expert Pick: Mississippi State +14 (-110) at BetOnline
Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears (-3)
On offense, Duke thrives when it is able to establish the run and focus on running the ball. This is evident in its last two games, in which the Blue Devils scored 45 and 38 points, respectively. Their quarterback attempted fewer passes in those games than he did in his other games.
So far, Cal has gotten to face very low-ranking rush attacks. However, the Golden Bears just surrendered 178 rushing yards on 8.5 YPC to a Boston College rush attack that ranks 41 spots below Duke’s rush attack. Duke will be able to score a lot of points against Cal’s defense.
But Cal is also going to score a lot of points. The Golden Bears rely heavily on their quarterback, who has already been named ACC Rookie of the Week. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele will give Duke’s 125th-ranked pass defense the challenge that Syracuse’s backup quarterback failed to give last week.
Expert Pick: Over 56 (-110) at BetOnline
Place Your Week 6 Bets Now
The sportsbooks are still way off with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, both of whom are worth investing in as large underdogs. Also expect a high-scoring thriller between Duke and Cal.
Be sure to register at reputable sportsbooks and place your bets before the odds change!
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s top picks for Week 6 below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
