This week will feature an incredibly interesting slate of games, including high-profile clashes Oregon vs. Penn State and Alabama vs. Georgia. But don’t forget that the best college football picks for week 5 can be gleaned from examining games that involve lower-profile teams.
Strong Rush Attacks Bring Value This Week
This week, I like BYU to cover against Colorado, Kentucky to cover against South Carolina, and Arizona to cover against Iowa State.
What unites BYU, Kentucky, and Arizona is a strong outlook for their respective rush attacks. While it is said that football has come to prioritize passing, it is also said that the running back is a quarterback’s best friend.
This is true because strong rushing attacks open up the field for quarterbacks, who get to face a defense that has to worry about the opposing running back. Also, a quarterback (obviously) cannot throw an interception if he is handing off the football.
Let’s sit back and ride these strong rush attacks.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-6)
Iowa State’s offense relies heavily on its well-reputed quarterback Rocco Becht.
Iowa State is one of the few teams that fails to average four YPC, so if a defense can limit Becht, then its overall outlook against Iowa State will be solid. I love Arizona as an underdog because it does the third-best job at limiting the opponent’s passer rating.
In a game that it dominated in terms of yardage differential, Arizona held Kansas State’s quarterback to a passer rating over 60 points below his season average.
Arizona’s offense won’t need to do much, but its outlook is nonetheless solid with its rush attack that just amassed 234 rushing yards against Kansas State. As was evident when Iowa State surrendered 16 points to lowly Arkansas State, its rush defense is vulnerable.
Arizona can take advantage and exceed 20 points in something like a 24-14 victory.
Expert Pick: Arizona +6 (-103) at BetOnline
Kentucky Wildcats vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-6)
Favoring South Carolina by six just doesn’t make sense:
- South Carolina beat Virginia Tech before the Hokies fired their head coach.
- They defeated South Carolina State.
- Most recently, they lost by 24 at home to Vanderbilt and by nine at Missouri.
There’s nothing that Kentucky has shown, with its one loss coming against revenge-driven Ole Miss, to indicate that it should be dogged by so many points against South Carolina.
The matchup favors Kentucky. South Carolina’s offense revolves around its quarterback, as it has the fifth-worst rush attack in terms of YPA. But Kentucky ranks in the top third at limiting opposing passer rating.
It held Ole Miss’ quarterback, for example, to a passer rating far below his season average.
On offense, Kentucky is one of 31 teams to average over five YPC. Its outlook is great against a Gamecocks team that just allowed 287 rushing yards to Missouri.
Expert Pick: Kentucky +6 (-110) at BetOnline
BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes (+6.5)
In its three games against FBS schools, Colorado gave up:
- 27 to Georgia Tech
- 36 to Houston
- 20 to Wyoming
Colorado allows 194 rushing yards per game and hasn’t been tested through the air. BYU features an efficient rush attack and an effective pass attack led by a quarterback who has thrown four touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far.
BYU is reliably scoring around 30 points against their FBS opponents and will score over 30 against Colorado. Through two FBS games, BYU has allowed a combined total of 16 points against Stanford and East Carolina, with ten of those points being meaningless fourth-quarter scores.
BYU’s high-caliber defense is especially solid at limiting rush yardage: it will make Colorado’s offense one-dimensional and thus overburden a Colorado quarterback who looked shaky in his one game this year against a ranked team (Georgia Tech).
Expert Pick: BYU -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Place Your Bets
Everybody loves playing the late game, and BYU is the team to hammer in that game. Kentucky and Arizona are, moreover, underdogs that merit an investment. To take advantage of these and other college football picks in week 5, be sure to register at top-rated sportsbooks.
More Picks from Our Experts
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
