This season has seen many teams disappoint expectations. Sometimes, major consequences have attended disappointment: we’ve already seen multiple head coaches get fired. Other times, teams continue to struggle without making significant alterations. For some struggling teams, there remains hope, however. For our NCAAF best bets for Week 4, we want to distinguish between the promising teams and the hopeless ones.
Finding Value in Struggling Teams
The teams that I am interested in betting on this week have struggled.
South Carolina just got blown out at home by lowly Vanderbilt. Clemson now has a losing record after entering the season with high expectations. Arizona State and Baylor — I like the “over” for their upcoming matchup — struggle on defense. There is a positive side here: Arizona State and Baylor exhibit a great ability to score. Moreover, South Carolina and Clemson still have a lot to offer in the right matchup.
There is also reason to doubt the abilities of their opponents. Syracuse, who is facing Clemson, has been atrocious on defense. Missouri, who is facing South Carolina, has primarily feasted on weak teams.
Syracuse Orange vs. Clemson Tigers (-17)
This is a great spot for Clemson after its disappointing loss last week. It is common for disappointing teams to take out their anger on weaker foes. Alabama, for example, is a high-profile team that was upset in Week 1. The Tide bounced back by beating its next opponent 73-0.
As another disappointed high-profile team, Clemson is going to be eager to bounce back against a soft team. These easy games provide opportunities for disappointing squads to continue feeling like they can become national champions. Syracuse is an easy opponent because of how bad its defense is. The Orange gave up 45 points to Tennessee, 20 to UConn, and 24 to Colgate.
Giving up 20+ points to Colgate is really incredible. Clemson can double this scoring total with Heisman hopeful Cade Klubnik at quarterback. Meanwhile, Clemson has a solid defense that held LSU to a season-low ten points.
Expert Pick: Clemson -17 (-110) at BetOnline
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Baylor Bears (-2.5)
Both of these teams score a lot of points and concede a lot of points. Defining “a lot” elucidates why the “over” is a great play. Arizona State. Combining their respective averages, both teams average and allow over 30 points per game.
Arizona State allows slightly fewer than 30 points because of one dud that it experienced, where its high-caliber quarterback had an off day. Sam Leavitt was viewed as a Heisman hopeful for good reason, though, so one has to expect him to play very well. His outlook as a dual-threat quarterback is excellent against a Baylor defense that conceded 38 points to Auburn largely because Auburn’s dual-threat quarterback thrived.
While supported by a dangerous rush attack, Baylor’s quarterback will likewise flourish against a bad Arizona State pass defense. Mississippi State’s quarterback had his most productive output of the season not against Alcorn State or Southern Mississippi but against Arizona State.
Expert Pick: Over 59.5 (-110) at BetOnline
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Missouri Tigers (-13.5)
The spread might seem reasonable when you consider that Vanderbilt blew out South Carolina by 24 points, pulling away after the Gamecocks lost their starting quarterback. However, that score is misleading because the Gamecocks actually outgained Vanderbilt in total yardage. South Carolina moved the ball well. Their progress in drives was undone, in particular, by avoidable turnovers.
One point here is that South Carolina’s offense remains dangerous without its starting quarterback, who might still play against Missouri. Another point is that South Carolina’s defense is likewise underrated. The Gamecocks held Vanderbilt to 3.9 yards per carry and 177 passing yards. Their opponent’s play total and field position inflated their point total.
There remains much to like in this 2-1 Gamecocks team. The Gamecocks had beaten Virginia Tech by 13 points. While Missouri has looked good, the Tigers only played a defensively weaker Kansas team and two no-name opponents.
Expert Pick: South Carolina +13.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Place Your Bets
Clemson, the Arizona State-Baylor over, and South Carolina belong in your NCAAF top bets for Saturday’s games. You’ll want to take advantage of these and other great betting opportunities by registering at top sportsbooks. Be aware that lines commonly change during the week, so you’ll want to register at multiple reputable sportsbooks in order to get the best betting odds.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
