Live college football picks remain a great source of profit for bettors who are willing to think carefully and logically.
Our College Football picks Week 15 need to account for matchup details and, in some cases, regular-season matchup history.
Duke and Virginia meet in the ACC Championship Game after having met in the regular season. In addition to wagering on this game, I am also interested in wagering on the Big Ten Championship between Indiana and Ohio State.
Be sure to consider other games so that you can come up with the rest of this week’s best College Football picks.
NCAAF Picks Week 15 At-a-glance
This article will focus on my best college football bets for this week’s conference championship games. I’ll be recommending a side for two games, Duke vs. Virginia and Indiana vs. Ohio State.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (Ohio State -4.5)
Ohio State has yet to be challenged: after beating Texas by seven points in its season-opener with a new quarterback, Ohio State has coolly won every game by 18 points or more.
Conversely, Indiana has struggled with teams like Iowa and Penn State – the Hoosiers beat both teams by a combined total of eight points, whereas Ohio State beat Penn State by 24 points.
Ohio State has an elite front seven that, helping the team rank top four in both run defense and sacks, will help limit Indiana’s offense. Anchoring a top-ranked secondary that is laden with speed and length, safety Caleb Downs is expected to be a top-ten draft pick.
In this matchup, Ohio State will use its pass attack to distance itself from Indiana. As he showed in various long completions last week at Michigan, quarterback Julian Sayin is an elite deep ball thrower. He has one of the most highly-regarded wide receivers to throw to in Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State’s talent level is rated higher than Indiana’s in part because of its advantages at wide receiver and defensive back, which will make it easier for the Buckeyes to march downfield and connect on big plays.
Wager on Ohio State -4.5 in expectation of another big Buckeyes win.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers (Virginia -3.5)
This game is the easiest game for bettors to be deceived about.
Three weeks ago, Virginia crushed Duke, beating the Blue Devils 34-17 in their venue. Each game has its own dynamic, though, such that the final score results in a given game can be the product of events that unfolded rather than of an irreparable difference in the quality of both teams.
If Duke simply had better play-calling and execution, then it would never have been in a position in which it had to become a one-dimensional passing offense. Then, it could have exploited a Virginia run defense that plagued the team in its losses to NC State and Wake Forest teams that rank similarly to Duke in terms of rushing.
Objectively speaking, one has to expect Duke to be able to execute better than it did against Virginia: the Blue Devils were 4-0 with a +60 point differential against the four opponents (NC State, California, North Carolina, and Wake Forest) that they shared with Virginia, who finished 2-2 with a zero point differential against those same teams.
Duke is a team that can seem confusing because of how low its ceiling is. We saw the low ceiling in its loss to UConn as well as its loss to Virginia.
With Duke riding a win streak, with everything on the line, and with Virginia’s potential to fail to take the Blue Devils seriously after recently destroying them and after most recently experiencing the jubilation of finally defeating their archrival, the Blue Devils will play closer to their high potential than Virginia.
For the above reasons, bet on Duke +3.5.
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
We can’t wait to see the nation’s top two teams battle for the Big Ten Championship. But there’s a reason why Duke vs. Virginia is also an evening game.
It looks like a great “chase” game for bettors looking to end the evening with an easy victory, but the reality is that Duke, along with Ohio State, will cover the spread. We are therefore recommending Duke and Ohio State for your College football picks week 15.
The line could shift in both games, so be sure to time your wagers so that you get the best number. Capitalize on these favorable picks by opening an account and placing two college football picks today.
Offshore Sportsbooks
It’s important to sign up with multiple top sportsbooks so that you can line-shop. For my best bets this week, the reputable sportsbook that I am relying on is BetOnline.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
