College Football Picks for Saturday: Featuring Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Week 3 Total
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LT Profits
- September 12, 2025
We have already arrived at Week 3 of the 2025 College Football season that seems like it just began yesterday. We had an inauspicious season debut last week with just a 1-2 record, so we are looking to rebound with three more best bets for Week 3 that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted College Football odds.
NCAAF best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and all three of our selections for Saturday happen to be totals. including one in the huge prime time Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame matchup. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Pittsburgh-West Virginia Over 55.5 (-105)
- Appalachian State-Southern Miss Over 56 (-125)
- Texas A&M-Notre Dame Over 50.5 (-108)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
In a matchup between a good passing team and a good rushing team, we foresee the result being a relatively high scoring affair and are thus backing the Over in Morgantown when Pittsburgh visits West Virginia in the “Backyard Brawl”.
Holstein to Have Continued Success for Pitt
Pittsburgh is averaging 53.0 points through two games, fueled by the passing of Eli Holstein. The Panthers are averaging a whopping 321 passing yards per game, with Holstein completing 70.6% of his passes for 519 yards and eight touchdowns on 51 passing attempts. That grades out to an amazing 10.2 yards per attempt, meaning that Eli is averaging a first down ever time he throws the football!
Now, we get that the West Virginia defense is a step up from Pitt’s first two opponents in Duquesne and Central Michigan. In fact, WVU is statistically a good 38th in pass defense allowing 158.5 yards per game. However, the advanced metrics at PFF do not support that tanking, with the Mountaineers rated only 64th in Coverage at 68.5 and 68th in Pressure at 68.4 defensively.
Thus, we expect Halstein and the Pittsburgh offense to have continued success against a team whose defense may be overvalued when comparing metrics to frontline stats.
Lightning Pace by WVU Can Catch Panthers Off Guard
West Virginia is the opposite of Pittsburgh in that the Mountaineers’ offense is keyed by a great running game that is 26th in the country with 232.5 rushing yards per game. Moreover, WVU plays at a lightning pace, ranking second in the nation in seconds per play at 19.8! That frenetic pace can often catch defenses off guard, and West Virginia may not even need to score a ton of points to push this game Over this total if Pittsburgh is as successful offensively as we expect.
Now, we totally get that the Panthers are allowing an unbelievable 38.5 rushing yards per game to rank sixth in the country defensively. But, as mentioned, they opened the season with two cupcakes and built big leads in both games, forcing their opponents to abandon the run early. That does not figure to be the case for a West Virginia team that relies on the run, so that plus the fast pace will put the unsustainable Pitt rush defense numbers to the acid test.
In the end, we think the Pittsburgh passing game will continue to succeed against a Mounties pass defense with suspect metrics, and we expect West Virginia to have success on a Panther run defense with inflated rankings vs. two lightweights. Bet on the Over in this spot.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Appalachian State may have treated last week’s contest vs. an FCS opponent as a bye week while Southern Miss improved offensively in Week 2 after facing an SEC defense in Week 1. We are betting on the Over in Hattiesburg on Saturday.
Appalachian State Runs Many Plays
Appalachian comes off a lackluster 20-13 win over Lindenwood out of the FCS, although they were never really threatened while jumping out to a 14-0 lead and Lindenwood not pulling within a touchdown until two minutes left. This was probably a simple case of the Mountaineers not wanting to tip their hand while facing a sub-division opponent, and even with that, they still amassed 503 total yards!
The Mounties love to play fast, ranking third in the nation in plays per game at 89.0, and when combined with averaging 7.0 yards per play overall, it comes as no surprise that they rank 14th in the country in total offense with 544.5 yards per game. That includes a whopping 586-yard effort in their FBS opener against Charlotte. Thus, we see them moving the ball at will with their fast pace against a Southern Miss team ranked 100th in total defense allowing 393.5 yards per game.
Yes, the Golden Eagles opened against Mississippi State, but allowing 191 rushing yards to Jackson State last week is still a bad sign now facing an Appalachian team averaging 195.5 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry.
Southern Miss Can Continue Offensive Momentum
Now, Southern Miss does not grade out well offensively overall, ranking 98th in total offense at 332.0 yards per contest. But again, they did practically nothing against an SEC opponent in the opener, and the offense was much better in a 38-20 victory last week. Marshall transfer quarterback Braylon Braxton was pulled early after completing 20 of 30 passes for 214 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions.
And let us not forget that the Eagles also play relatively quickly, ranking 27th in plays per game at 75.0. We expect Braxton to use that pace to his advantage while trying to exploit a lacking Appalachian State secondary ranked just 97th in Coverage per PFF at 77.4. That could also open things up for more Big Time Runs from Jeffery Pittman, who rushed for 71 yards on just 10 carries in the win last week.
The bottom line here is this is a matchup of two fast-paced offenses each capable of exploiting weakness in the respective opposing defenses. That sounds like a perfect recipe for an Over here.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
We do not expect much defense to be played in this marquee matchup in South Bend on Saturday night. Therefore, we are supporting the Over when Texas A&M pays a visit to Notre Dame.
Reed Can Continue Hot Start vs. Slipping Defense
Defense was an integral part in getting Notre Dame to the National Championship Game last season, but that unit did not grade out well against the pass vs. Miami in the season opener. The metrics at PFF show that Miami had a 58% Passing Success Rate and four explosive passes. Yes, that was against one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Carson Beck, but things do not look any easier here against Marcel Reed.
Granted, Reed suffered an injury last week, but the redshirt sophomore has been cleared and will take this start. That is great news as he has looked like a superstar in the making thus far, passing for 509 yards and seven touchdowns without a single interception. In fact, per PFF, he has yet to make a Turnover Worthy Throw in his 62 passing attempts!
Of course, it helps to have one of the best receivers in the country in KC Concepcion as a target, and that duo can exploit the Notre Dame secondary that had several breakdowns vs. the Hurricanes.
Carr Looks Like Real Deal, A&M Defense Suspect
Freshman quarterback CJ Carr won the starting job for Notre Dame, and he had a nice debut despite the 27-24 loss to Miami. He rallied the Irish back from a 14-point deficit in the second half to even the game at 24-24, finishing 19 for 30 for 221 passing yards and two touchdowns while also adding another touchdown on the ground. He certainly did not display any nerves while playing his first collegiate game in hostile territory.
He and the Irish now take on a Texas A&M defense that has been sub-par metrically despite going 2-0 against UTSA and Utah State. The Aggies rank a dismal 98th in Tackling per PFF at just 57.9, and they have been vulnerable against the pass with their secondary ranking only 50th in Coverage. And obviously, Notre Dame represents a major leap in competition over their first two opponents,
Furthermore, A&M is currently dead last in the country in Rush EPA allowed, with UTSA and USU ripping off a combined seven Explosive Runs.
We expect Notre Dame to make the Aggies pay for those defensive shortcomings more than the first two Texas A&M opponents did, while at the same time expecting the Reed/Concepcion passing combo to succeed vs. the Irish. Bet the Over in South Bend.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
