College Football Picks for Week 7: Michigan, USC Light Up Scoreboard in Prime Time
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LT Profits
- October 10, 2025
We have now reached Week 7 of the 2025 College Football season, and we have some nice matchups on the Saturday card this week including four meetings between ranked teams. As usual, we are here with our three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted College Football odds.
NCAAF best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our action starting early with Michigan State hosting UCLA at 12:00 Noon ET and concluding with #15 Michigan traveling to USC in prime time at 7:30 ET on NBC. And we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Michigan State -7.5 (-105)
- Kent State -2.5 (-108)
- Michigan-USC Over 56 (-111)
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, October 11, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT at Spartan Stadium
UCLA is in a terrible situational spot on Saturday, and the early 12 Noon ET start is not helpful for a west coast team. We are laying the points with Michigan State in what we project to be a double-digit victory.
Expect a Return to Reality for UCLA
Following a 0-4 start that resulted in the firing of the head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator of UCLA, the Bruins pulled off probably the biggest upset of the season last week 42-37 over Penn State as 25-point underdogs. Remember though that they caught Penn State at the perfect time, in a letdown situation after an overtime loss to Oregon in a “circled game” spot and then travelling three time zones across the country.
Now it is UCLA in that exact same situation, in a letdown spot of their own after that stunner and traveling three time zones, with the added variable of the early kick-off. We do not see the Bruins jumping on a sleepy defense again here like they did last week when they scored 27 points by halftime. Even with that anomalous 42-point effort, this is still a team averaging just 19.8 points per game while ranking 104th in the country in total offense.
We see a return to that dreadful offensive form here with the Bruins unable to contain the Michigan State defensive line with an offensive line ranked 119th in pass blocking and a sub-par 65th in run blocking per PFF.
Michigan State Offensive Line Should Hold Up
The Spartans began the year with three home wins before losing two straight on the road at a couple of tough road venues in USC and Nebraska to drop to 3-2. They benefit doubly here though with the return home and the decided drop in competition. Quarterback Aidan Chiles was awful last week completing just 9-of-23 passes, but he was also under constant siege from the Nebraska front while given very little time to throw.
Chiles had been just fine in his first four games while completing 68.6% of his passes with a nice 8.5 yards per attempt and eight touchdown passes vs. one interception. We expect a return to that form here with his offensive line holding up much better against a UCLA front ranked 130th out of 136 FBS teams in Pressure Rating.
Additionally, the Bruins rank dead last nationally in Defensive Success Rate allowed, allowing mediocre offenses like New Mexico and Northwestern to go up and down the field.
We see corrective efforts from both sides here, with Michigan State continuing its fine home form following two losses on the road and UCLA falling back to earth after catching Penn State napping. Bet on the Spartans as single-digit favorites.
The Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Saturday, October 11, 2025 – 02:30 PM EDT at Dix Stadium
This MAC matchup may not be the most glamorous game on the Saturday board, but that does not mean there is no value to be found. We are betting on Kent State as tiny home favorites hosting Massachusetts.
Kent to Take Advantage of Rare Winnable Spot
Yes, we totally get that the Golden Flashes are 1-25 straight up in their last 26 games with the win coming against an FCS opponent. But there is no denying that they are greatly improved over the team that went a winless 0-12 last season.
Dissecting Kent’s 1-4 record this year, yes, the win came against Merrimack of the FCS, but they had no chance in three brutal road games against power conference teams at Oklahoma, Florida State and Texas Tech. Moreover, they came very close to upsetting Buffalo in their MAC opener, falling by just a 31-28 score as 24-point underdogs.
And the Flashes now have a legitimate quarterback in freshman Dru DeShields. He went 22-for-32 for 279 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Buffalo, and he performed admirably in hostile environments in Florida State and Texas Tech. And to illustrate how much it means to Kent to snap their 26-game FBS losing streak, they held out DeShields at Oklahoma last week solely to avoid injury with this looking like their most winnable FBS game of 2025!
Is Massachusetts the 2025 Version of Kent State 2024?
Meanwhile, Massachusetts bears a striking resemblance to that 0-12 Kent State team of last year whose defeats included a home loss to St. Francis of the FCS. That is because the Minutemen are off to an 0-5 start, losing by an average final score of 26.7-10.4, with a home loss to Bryant of the FCS on their ledger.
UMass has been rotating three quarterbacks with no right answers, as the three have combined for only one touchdown pass vs. four interceptions and eight Turnover Worthy Throws vs. four Big Time Throws per PFF. The running game has not been any better with the Minutemen ranked 135th of 136 FBS teams in rushing at 61.0 per game and 134th in yards per rush at a scant 2.4! Remember, that is vs. a much easier schedule than the powerhouses Kent State has faced.
Then there is the Massachusetts pass defense ranked 124th allowing 248.8 yards per game through the air, even allowing Bryant’s quarterback to throw for 318 yards.
We expect Kent’s freshman QB DeShields to continue his great start against that poor passing defense after he was held out last week, and that could very well be the deciding factor here. We are backing the Golden Flashes to get that evasive FBS win by more than a field goal.
The Pick: Kent State -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Michigan Wolverines vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, October 11, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
We are expecting loads of scoring in a nationally televised prime-time game on Saturday night. We are supporting the Over in Los Angeles when Michigan visits USC.
USC Offense Now at Full Strength
The Trojans come off their first loss of the season by a scant margin 34-32 two weeks ago at Illinois, and that was with stud wide receiver Ja’Kobi Lane playing less than half the game due to injury and star left tackle Elijah Paige missing the game completely. The Trojans have one of the very best offenses in the country when fully healthy, and that now appears to be the case thanks to their bye last week being perfectly timed.
And keep in mind that even without those two difference-makers, they still put up 32 points in a narrow loss to a ranked team on the road. This team has a potential Top 5 quarterback in Jayden Maiava, who leads the country with an amazing 11.3 yards per pass attempt, and a supreme receiving duo with Makai Lemon and his 589 receiving yards alongside a healthier Lane. That has led to a third ranked passing offense in the nation at a whopping 338.0 yards per game.
That unit can find success against a Michigan defense that ranks outside the Top 50 in Explosive Pass Plays allowed per PFF, as well as 91st in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Michigan Can Dominate on the Ground
USC is not the only team capable of putting points on the scoreboard in this game, although Michigan does it via different means. That is because the Wolverines’ success starts with a running game ranked 14th in the land with 237.8 rushing yards per contest and fifth in yards per rush at a potent 6.4!
That rushing offense has also gotten a boost from freshman dual quarterback Bryce Underwood and his 181 yards on the ground on 6.7 yards per rush. But he is not one-dimensional by any means as he has thrown for 1,003 yards while looking better with every passing start, pointing to a very bright future in Ann Arbor.
But still, Michigan’s offensive success always starts with the run, making this a favorable matchup against a USC team that allows a lot of Rush Explosives while ranking outside the Top 100 in Defensive Rush Efficiency.
This is a matchup of two good offenses whose strengths line up nicely with their respective opponents’ defensive weaknesses. That sounds like a perfect formula to bet on the Over in the Coliseum.
The Pick: Over 56 (-111) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
