College Football Picks for Week 5: Can Huskies Upset #1 Ohio State in Seattle?
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LT Profits
- September 26, 2025
We have reached Week 5 of the 2025 College Football season, and there are some huge conference battles throughout the schedule this week.
We look to bounce back after going 1-2 in Week 4 with three best bets for Saturday that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted College Football odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Saturday being afternoon sides with the first two kicking off early at 12 Noon ET.
The plays are highlighted by #1 Ohio State visiting Washington, as well as Notre Dame visiting Arkansas. As usual, we searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Ohio Bobcats
Saturday, September 27, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
In a matchup where the underdogs have a potent running game while taking on a weak and battered rushing defense, we are taking the points with Bowling Green when the Falcons visit in-state rival Ohio in MAC play on Saturday.
Falcons Dropping in Class After Playing Louisville
Bowling Green ventured into ACC territory last week and was soundly thumped in Louisville 40-17.
That was the first ATS loss of the season for Bowling Green after starting 3-0 against the number overall as they dropped to 2-2 straight up. The good news, though, is they still managed 190 rushing yards on a healthy 6.6 yards per carry against an ACC defense!
Bowling Green’s rushing success is keyed by a very experienced offensive line, where the starters have played over 8,000 combined snaps at the FBS level. That line could potentially push around the front of an Ohio defense ranked 90th in rushing defense, permitting 158.8 yards per game on the ground.
Furthermore, Ohio lost two of its best run-stoppers to injuries in defensive lineman Pius Odjugo and linebacker Jack Fries, making them more vulnerable.
Thus, if Bowling Green does not face a big early deficit, we see the Falcons controlling this game on the ground against a vulnerable unit, which is a terrific trait for a decided underdog.
Ohio with Quarterback Edge but Little Else
Ohio enters at an identical 2-2, with the two losses coming against good competition in Ohio State and Rutgers and one of the wins being an upset of West Virginia.
However, while they deserve to be favored at home, being favored by more than a touchdown seems like an overlay to us, even with the better quarterback by far in this game in Parker Navarro.
As much as we like Navarro, if you take away a blowout of Gardner-Webb of the FCS, he is averaging an ordinary 7.0 yards per attempt against FBS competition. That points to a glaring lack of a burner at wide receiver for the Bobcats, which makes it more unlikely for Ohio to build a quick, early lead to take Bowling Green out.
Moreover, the favorites from Ohio grade out lower here per PFF in offensive line play and in overall defense, and that is not taking the defensive injuries into consideration.
So, while Ohio has performed admirably vs. three good FBS opponents, this looks like too many points to give to a Falcons’ team that can control the clock on the ground against a poor run defense. Take the points with Bowling Green.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, September 27, 2025 – 12:00 PM EDT
After reaching the National Championship Game last season, Notre Dame has seen declines on both sides of the ball this year. We are taking the points with Arkansas at home Saturday in a possible upset.
Irish Offensive Line Issues a Major Concern
Notre Dame began the year with consecutive upset losses at the hands of Miami on the road and Texas A&M at home before a 56-30 win over Purdue last week, thanks to 254 rushing yards. However, that may have had more to do with poor Purdue run defense as the Irish still rank only 84th in run blocking per PFF with a rating of 57.9.
And the offensive line issues do not end there with the Irish pass blocking ranked an abysmal 117th at 52.1. Quarterback CJ Carr has faced 23 pressures in 83 dropbacks this season, and further evidence of declining line play is allowing 15 tackles for loss while playing only three games to this point.
So, it makes sense for Notre Dame right now to keep handing the ball to the great running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. However, we do not think that duo will continue to be as successful at evading tackles as they were last week, given the poor run-blocking grade.
Arkansas Elite Offense Faces Declining Defense
Arkansas is 2-2 after an upset loss to Memphis last week, but the main culprits have been defense and sloppy ballhandling, with a key late fumble leading to last week’s loss.
The offense, however, has performed at an elite level, averaging 40.0 points and 426.0 total yards per game while getting contributions from both phases, averaging 265 passing yards and 161 rushing yards.
It helps to have a dual threat at quarterback in Taylen Green, who has rushed for 234 yards from designed calls and 145 yards off improvised scrambles. He has led an offense that is in the Top 20 metrically in most offensive categories including Offensive Success Rate and EPA.
Now that offense can take advantage of a Notre Dame team ranked 82nd in total defense under new defensive coordinator Chris Ash, who we feel is a major downgrade from the departed Al Golden.
The only thing stopping us from calling for an outright upset directly is the vulnerable Arkansas defense, but in the end, we think these defenses are both bad, while the Hogs have the superior offense. Take Arkansas with the points.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, September 27, 2025 – 03:30 PM EDT
The defending national champions and current #1 team in the country in Ohio State could be running into a buzzsaw visiting Seattle on Saturday. We are taking the points with a Washington team that has one of the strongest home-field advantages in the country, having won 22 straight games at usually boisterous Husky Stadium.
Ohio State with Two Breathers Since Beating Texas
The Buckeyes are 3-0 and have not allowed a touchdown since allowing one in a great opening 14-7 win over Texas, outscoring their last two opponents by a combined 107-9 score. However, before rushing to bet those Futures on an Ohio State repeat, consider that those two teams were Grambling from the FCS and Ohio.
There are still concerns on both sides of the ball for Ohio State this year compared to last season.
They now have an immobile pocket-passer in Julian Sayin, who was not that great in his only test against Texas, passing for only 126 yards on a low 6.3 yards per attempt. His lack of mobility has hurt behind a questionable offensive line that allowed eight pressures and a sack vs. an outclassed Ohio team, which is a bad omen for this rise in competition at a tough venue.
That line must now try to protect against a Washington defense that leads the nation in Pressure Rate when not blitzing per PFF!
Washington Offensive Line Should Lead to Nice Drives
Washington has played at a supreme level offensively while averaging 55.7 points and 536.0 yards per game. The caveat there though is that damage has been done against three creampuffs, making this the first true test for the Huskies.
But remember that PFF accounts for a team’s opponents in its ratings, and Washington still grades out favorably in most metrics while ranking in the Top 15 in both rush EPA and pass EPA. They certainly have the tools to move the ball on Ohio State like no other team has with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams, explosive running back Jonah Coleman and one of the best receivers in the land in Denzel Boston.
And as we alluded to earlier, the Ohio State defense has also taken a step back compared to last year, despite allowing 16 points in three games, starting with a mere 16% Stuffed Run Rate vs. Texas in the only true test so far. Also, Washington appears to have the edge in the trenches, as the Huskies are tied for 10th in Offensive Line Yards while the Buckeyes are 89th in Defensive Line Yards.
That War of the Trenches could very well key an outright upset here, but our official play is taking the points with Washington while playing in one of the most electric environments in the nation.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
