College Football Picks for Saturday: Baylor Bears Claw Past Mustangs in Dallas
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LT Profits
- September 5, 2025
After going 18-11-1, 62.1% over the last 10 weeks of the 2024 regular season and then following that up by going 10-4 with our Bowl Picks, we now return for the 2025 season. We are debuting with three best bets for Week 2 that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted College Football odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Saturday consisting of two sides and one total, including a selection in the marquee Baylor vs. SMU contest. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs
In a matchup between a Baylor team that had a rather deceptive result in Week 1 and an SMU team that beat up on an FCS opponent, we are banking on the Bears to emerge victorious in Week 2.
Better Defense Expected vs. Pocket Passer Quarterback
Baylor lost its opener at home 38-24 to Auburn last Friday night, making this a relatively big early-season game as it marks the last chance this year for a resume-building power-conference win during non-conference play. Furthermore, that Week 1 contest was much closer than the final result, as the Bears were done in by coming up empty on two goal-to-go opportunities, and also by allowing a touchdown on special teams.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson had a huge game, passing for 419 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against an SEC defense. And the Baylor defense did a fine job in limiting Auburn QB Jackson Arnold to a puny 108 passing yards, and it also contained the Auburn running backs reasonably well. The issue was that the Bears had no answer for the mobile QB Arnold, who took off 16 times for 137 rushing yards.
Thankfully, Baylor is not facing such a mobile quarterback this week, with SMU’s Kevin Jennings being more of a pocket passer, which should translate to a better defensive effort. Also consider that the Bears have an extra day of prep time after playing on Friday.
Does Beating Up on East Texas A&M Really Matter?
SMU opened with a resounding 42-13 win, but that loses relevance when you consider they beat up on East Texas A&M out of the FCS, which should in no way prepare them for this Big 12 opponent. When opening with a sub-division foe like that, the negatives become more significant than the positives, since the positives are expected.
Well, there certainly were some negatives for the Mustangs in Week 1, starting by winning the total yardage battle just 400-347, not nearly as big a margin as you would expect given the score and opponent. Furthermore, Jennings’ passer rating of 65.2 per PFF for Week 1 ranks just 79th among all starting quarterbacks for the opening week.
We give Robertson the big quarterback edge in this matchup, plus we expect the Baylor defense to step up without needing to worry about a mobile quarterback. Take the small points with the Bears in a probable upset spot.
Memphis Tigers vs. Georgia State Panthers
Memphis is a well-deserved two-touchdown road favorite in Week 2 on Saturday, but while that is too rich for our tastes, our focus here is on the total. Bet on the Over when the Tigers travel to Atlanta to take on Georgia State.
Memphis Can Score at Will vs. Poor Secondary
Memphis had one of the best offenses in the country over the second half of last season, culminating with a 42-37 win over West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl. Well, that offense did not appear to lose a step in Week 1, emerging with a 45-10 triumph over Chattanooga. Yes, we totally get they faced an FCS opponent, but is the Georgia State defense any better than an FCS defense? We will get to that answer in a bit.
Nevada transfer quarterback Brendon Lewis is a dual threat who put all his skills on display in his Memphis debut. He had an efficient passing game, completing 22 or 28 passes for 199 yards and a touchdown, and he also ran the ball 10 times for 81 yards and an additional touchdown. Remember that PFF considers opponents when making their player grades, and even accounting for the FCS opponent, Lewis had an 86.6 rating that ranked 16th best among QBs for Week 1.
Now, he faces a Georgia State defense ranked 112th by PFF overall in the opening week at 60.1, including a secondary ranked 105th in coverage at 59.8.
Panthers May Not Need Much to Push Game Over
Georgia State had one of the worst losses for any team in Week 1, falling 63-7 on the road at Mississippi. We have already addressed some of the ugly advanced stats for the Panthers’ defense, and their more conventional stats are not any better, as they allowed a whopping 695 total yards to the Rebels on a disgusting 8.6 yards per play overall. And things are not expected to be easier vs. what is again expected to be a high-octane Memphis offense this season.
Given that we think Memphis will at least match, if not exceed its 45-point output last week, that would mean the Panthers do not need to score too much to hoist this game over the posted total. And we think they will do enough scoring facing a lesser defense than they faced last week. After all, Memphis did not apply much of a pass rush against an FCS opponent in Week 1, ranking just 81st in Pressure Rating per PFF at 64.4.
The bottom line here is that Memphis is equipped to approach this posted total all by themselves against a hideous defense. Add in Georgia State, expected to improve a bit facing less pressure, and go over this total.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Washington State Cougars
Both these teams opened up their respective seasons against FCS opponents, and while San Diego State performed as expected, Washington State barely evaded a shocking upset. This has been backing the Aztecs at close to a toss-up betting line in Pullman.
One-Dimensional Offense vs. Good Pass Defense
We have said several times that negatives are more significant than positives when facing subdivision schools, as the positives should be expected. Well, sadly for Washington State, there was seemingly nothing but negatives while barely getting out alive with a scant 13-10 win over Idaho out of the FCS. Perhaps the fact that the Cougars were “only” favored by 17 points should have served as a clue that they are not highly regarded by the oddsmakers in the early going.
Yes, Wazzou has always been a one-dimensional passing offense ever since the days of the late Mike Leach, but the Cougars took that to absurd levels last week, rushing for three yards (not a typo) on 22 attempts! However, Jaxon Potter may not be the right fit at quarterback for an extremely pass-heavy offense, as while he completed a decent 23 of 30 passes, it was for only 208 yards, which equates to a low 6.5 yards per attempt.
Moreover, that was against an FCS defense, mind you, and he now faces a San Diego State defense that ranked fifth in Pressure at 83.1 and a commendable 23rd in Coverage at 80.1 per PFF during Week 1.
Aztecs Did What They Had To Conquer Stony Brook
Meanwhile, San Diego State took care of business while dominating Stony Brook 40-0 with a balanced attack of 228 rushing yards and 236 passing yards, while the defense limited Stony to a grand total of 95 yards! Yes, we know, it was vs. an FCS school and all, but our bigger takeaway here is that both these teams faced the FCS, and only the Aztecs performed like they should have.
Also, remember that PFF considers the opposition when setting their ratings, which legitimizes San Diego State’s advanced pass defense ratings mentioned earlier. Even the offense ranked a decent 36th overall for Week 1 at 76.3, while the Washington State defense ranked only 65th overall, held back drastically by an abysmal 127th ranking in Tackling at a mere 43.6.
In a nutshell, we would make San Diego State close to a field-goal favorite on the road here based on Week 1 advanced metrics. Thus, we will gladly bet on the Aztecs as tiny underdogs.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
