Live college football picks are a great source of profit when they are driven by incisive reasoning and sound logic. This week, our College football picks CFP Semifinals will benefit from the fact that we’ve gotten to see the teams involved compete in the playoffs.
While stats matter, it is also important to watch how coaches think and how players tend to respond to different circumstances.
In the previous playoff round, Miami’s win over defending champion Ohio State justifiably impressed people who had dismissed the ACC as a conference. Indiana looked great in its blowout win over Alabama.
This week’s best college football bets will account for whether both favorites can continue their success.
College Football Picks CFP Semifinals At-A-Glance
This article will cover my best college football bets for this week’s playoff action. I will determine a total play for Miami vs. Ole Miss and an ATS play for Oregon vs. Indiana.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Thursday, January 08, 2026 – 07:30 PM ET
It might seem strange that Miami has beaten Ohio State but also lost to Louisville and SMU. What this shows is how widely Miami’s performances vary in accordance with its opponent’s ability to handle its famous pass rush.
Ohio State’s quarterback already showed his vulnerability to pass pressure when his team lost to Indiana. So it was predictable to see Miami, which owns the seventh-best sack rate, lock down the Buckeyes’ offense.
Conversely, Louisville and SMU were able to negate Miami’s pass rush. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a second-team All-SEC selection, can be counted on to accomplish what Louisville and SMU’s respective quarterbacks did. Ole Miss’ offense has the additional advantage of playing fast. Their tempo will wear out Miami’s pass rush.
As evident in his PFF grades, Chambliss is even better under pressure than he is with a clean pocket. His ability to negate Miami’s defensive strength – its ability to apply pressure – and his big play potential will ensure a high point total from the Rebels.
Despite facing Georgia twice, Ole Miss has scored 30 or more points in each of its last eight games. Count on this game to be the ninth.
Both offenses will push each other to attain a high-scoring output against a defense that they are well-equipped to thrive against. For the above reasons, I recommend Over 52.
Expert Pick: Miami/Ole Miss Over 52 (-110) at BetOnline
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 09, 2026 – 07:30 PM ET
This is a rematch of a regular-season game, way back on October 11, in which Indiana beat Oregon.
It is very difficult to defeat a good team twice. In the three rematches in these playoffs, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch.
The team that lost the first meeting has a huge psychological and preparational advantage in the rematch. One obvious adjustment that Oregon will make is that the Ducks will run more. In the first meeting, Oregon’s top three running backs averaged 7.4, 5.4, and 5.7 YPC, respectively.
Most importantly, quarterback Dante Moore will be way prepared for this game. Indiana made him uncertain in the pocket, leading him to vacate even a secure pocket. Indiana’s defense confused Moore, leading him to hold onto the ball and miss open targets.
In this rematch, he’ll be well-prepared and comfortable against a familiar foe. Moore achieved a 252.8 passer rating in the game after his team’s loss to Indiana, so there is clearly a beneficial sort of emotion in play for him.
As for Oregon’s outlook on defense, its three-high shell equips the Ducks to limit Indiana’s pass attack, which relies heavily on RPOs. When Indiana’s quarterback played against Oregon, he predictably had the worst passer rating of his season since his season-opener.
Indiana got to 30 points by wearing down Oregon and scoring late, but Oregon’s improved offense will generate more time of possession for itself and secure more rest for its defense. Indeed, the Hoosiers failed to exceed 20 points against either of the top-nine scoring defenses (Iowa, Ohio State) that they faced in the regular season.
Playing as well as it can, expect Oregon’s sixth-ranked scoring defense to hold Indiana below 20 points. I’m seeing a 27-17 Oregon victory. Therefore, wager on Ducks +4
Expert Pick: Oregon +3.5 (-111) at BetOnline
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
We can’t wait for the CFP Semifinals. It’s a dream come true for bettors and fans of the sport to get two stand-alone games.
My college football picks CFP Semifinals will help you profit on both games. Sign up with multiple top sportsbooks and use our odds widget to watch the lines so that you can time your wager, line-shop, and get the best number for each of your bets.
Capitalize on my favorable picks by opening an account and placing two bets today.
