Live college football picks remain a great source of profit for bettors who study the regular season results carefully and draw incisive conclusions.
My college football picks today are particularly exciting because they target the first round of the College Football Playoffs. If other upcoming games might possibly interest you, then you should check out helpful college football predictions.
NCAAF Picks Bowl Week At-a-glance
This article will focus on my best college football bets for the bowl week.
I will be recommending a first-half side for James Madison vs. Oregon and full-game spread and total plays for Alabama vs. Oklahoma. For your information, the home team spreads for both games are: Oregon -22 and Oklahoma +1.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners (Oklahoma +1)
Friday’s game is a rematch of a regular-season affair that Oklahoma won 23-21 in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama bettors are hanging their hat on a poor argument: they believe that the Crimson Tide will win the rematch because the Crimson Tide outgained Oklahoma and lost because of turnovers. This line of thought expresses poor logic because it suggests that yardage disparity indicates which team is better and is more repeatable than turnovers.
First of all, Oklahoma’s defense is designed to force turnovers. Its complexity and its generation of pressure make decision-making difficult for opposing quarterbacks.
Alabama’s quarterback, Ty Simpson, has thrown a combined total of four interceptions in his team’s last three games. He has looked awful since the Sooners’ game and can only be expected to fare worse if valued target Josh Cuevas can’t play.
After eking past Auburn and getting blown out by Georgia, it is obvious that the Crimson Tide are trending downward. Conversely, the Sooners enjoy a 4-0 run and have held their last two opponents, Missouri and LSU, to a combined total of 19 points.
Given the dominance of Oklahoma’s defense and the shakiness of Alabama’s offense, it seems unlikely that the Crimson Tide can replicate their yardage total from their first meeting. For the same reasons, Oklahoma’s defense remains capable of generating turnovers.
Plus, Oklahoma’s offense has significant upside with more and more time elapsing since quarterback John Mateer’s injury, which had precipitated a stark decline in Oklahoma’s scoring average. Given the way each team is trending plus Mateer’s upside, we won’t even need the Sooners to force turnovers.
I like the “under” because, on top of better defense from OU and a weaker offense from Alabama, it makes sense to expect the Tide to play more conservatively since they will be focused on playing a cleaner game for two reasons:
- They believe that they lost the first game by committing too many turnovers
- They limited the yardage total of Oklahoma’s offense and, therefore, don’t respect Mateer and don’t believe that they need to take risks or score much to win.
For the above reasons, wager on Oklahoma ML and Under 40.5.
James Madison Dukes vs. Oregon Ducks
A group of 5 defenders points to previous times in which Group-of-5-teams defeated a high-profile opponent. However, Group-of-5-teams are not what they used to be. Nowadays, high-profile teams poach good players and coaches from Group of 5 teams, rendering the latter significantly weaker.
If you look at James Madison’s overall statistics, then they sure do look like a strong team. But they look strong because they mostly faced other Group of 5 teams. We can get a sense of how they stack up against a solid team like Oregon by comparing how JMU has fared against other Group of 5 teams versus how the Dukes fared against the one Power 4 team that they’ve played.
Overall, JMU averages 448 yards per game. When they played Louisville, a Power 4 team that finished seventh in the ACC, they mustered all of 263 total yards. They lost to Louisville 28-14.
On defense, Oregon ranks 18 spots higher than Louisville. It makes sense to expect Oregon to hold James Madison to fewer than ten points. On offense, the Ducks score eight more points per game than Louisville.
The Ducks scored over 40 points against every non-Big Ten team that they faced. They are loaded offensively, presenting a talented balance that will overwhelm James Madison.
In sum, I’m seeing a 41-10 game here. The Ducks like to do most of their damage in the first half before taking the foot off the gas pedal in the second half. For example, they led Minnesota 28-6 at halftime and won 42-13.
This tendency creates a uniquely solid first-half betting play. Wager on First-Half Oregon -10.5.
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
We can’t wait for Friday and Saturday’s playoff action. So be sure to invest in Oklahoma ML, the Bama-OU under, and first-half Oregon -10.5.
The line could shift in both games, so be sure to time your wagers so that you get the best number. Capitalize on these favorable picks by opening an account at a reputable sportsbook and placing two college football picks today.
Offshore Sportsbooks
By signing up with more top sportsbooks, you increase your ability to get the best number for each bet that you place. One reputable sportsbook that I am relying on for my picks is BetOnline.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
