Live College Football picks are a great source of profit when they are motivated by sound logic and incisive reasoning. To decide on the best College Football Bowl picks for this upcoming week of bowl games, it will be imperative to account for team motivation in addition to breaking down the matchup.
NCAAF Bowl Picks At-a-Glance
This article will cover my best college football bets for this week’s Non-CFP bowl games. I will recommend a side for Michigan vs. Texas and a total for Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State.
Texas is favored by seven, and Mississippi State is favored by three. Michigan and Texas play this afternoon, so be sure to wager punctually.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, December 31, 2025 – 3:00 PM ET
Bettors are eager to invest in Texas because of the coach-related chaos that Michigan’s team has recently experienced. However, Michigan is arguably in better hands now than it would have been if Sherrone Moore hadn’t been fired. Its current interim coach, Biff Poggi, led the Wolverines to their first road win of the season against what was an undefeated and healthy Nebraska team.
In addition to being in good hands, the Wolverines are motivated for this game. They could have stayed home after spending Christmas with their families. Instead, only three players opted-out. Michigan players will not miss Moore, who is clearly a terrible person. Today’s game gives them the opportunity to move forward.
Texas’ Defensive and Offensive Absences
Texas is the team that is positioned poorly for this game. The Longhorns will miss 15 players to the transfer portal or opt-outs. Among these 15 players are seven of their top defenders. Texas won’t have the athleticism and physicality of run-stopping linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. His absence positions them poorly against Michigan’s twelfth-ranked rush attack.
Michigan’s pass attack will benefit from the absence of safety Michael Taaffe, who, since 2024, has earned the best coverage grade among safeties. The Longhorns will also be one-dimensional on offense without their top three running backs. These absences distinguish them from Michigan, and yet they are favored and favored heavily.
Why Michigan Holds the Edge on Both Sides
Texas ranked almost 50 spots behind Michigan in pass defense and is down its number two wide receiver. Texas’ quarterback struggled a lot in terms of passer rating against higher-ranked pass defenses. So, Michigan has the edge passing-wise. With Jordan Marshall, who averaged 6.2 YPC in the regular season, Michigan also has the edge running-wise.
In sum, I don’t see any hope for the favored team in this matchup. Clearly, underdog Michigan is the play. Therefore, wager on Michigan +7.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Friday, January 2, 2026 – 8:00 PM ET
Mississippi State will start quarterback Kamario Taylor in this game. Taylor, though, is exactly the wrong quarterback to do well against Wake Forest’s defense. This defense’s worst performances came against teams that were led by effective passers – such teams included NC State and Duke.
While Georgia Tech and Florida State have quarterbacks who can run, both offenses relied heavily on efficient passing to achieve the scoring outputs that they did. Taylor, however, is not an efficient passer. He is converting only 54.5 percent of his passes this season. Against Ole Miss, where he did the bulk of his work, he failed to complete half his passes even though he often threw short passes.
Why Taylor’s Rushing Style Won’t Succeed
Taylor will need to rely on running the ball. He wants to be fast, shifty, and agile. He likes to make great escapes when plays break down. Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos relies on these traits, but mustered all of nine rushing yards on ten carries against Wake Forest. Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones also relies on these traits, but managed only 2.8 YPC against the Demon Deacons, whereas he averages 3.8 YPC on the season.
The Hokies reached 23 points against Wake Forest because they have a rush attack that ranks 35 spots ahead of Mississippi State’s, and they repeatedly benefited from excellent field position. Georgia Tech scored 23 points in regulation against Wake Forest with its dual-threat quarterback Haynes King relying heavily on his superior (relative to Taylor’s) passing ability. King also ran well against Wake Forest’s defense, but the Demon Deacons evidently used that negative experience against King to fix their run defense because that game came before they played teams like Virginia Tech and Florida State.
Given Taylor’s poor passing ability, his team’s subpar rushing ability, and the Wake Forest run defense’s improvement, I can’t imagine Mississippi State sniffing Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech’s point total.
Wake Forest’s Offensive Limitations
But Wake Forest’s offense will also struggle to score. Mississippi State’s defense only seems to be bad because it has given up very high point totals to playoff-caliber teams and super high yardage totals to elite players like Missouri’s running back.
Mississippi State’s pass defense looks bad, ranking 78th, but it also encountered multiple superior SEC quarterbacks. Wake Forest’s Robby Ashford is nothing like Ole Miss’ quarterback, for example. Ashford is someone who has thrown almost as many interceptions as touchdowns, and he might run for 50 yards in a given game.
Mississippi State’s defense is reliable against mobile quarterbacks. For example, it held Arkansas’ quarterback to 2.7 YPC, which is 2.9 YPC below his season average. As is also evident in its games against Ole Miss and Texas, Mississippi State repeatedly holds opposing quarterbacks to below their rushing average. Mississippi State’s defense also reliably limits lesser quarterbacks like Florida’s, Arizona State’s, and Arkansas’ to below their season-average passer rating.
In addition to not being able to count on Ashford, Wake Forest won’t have its top running back, Demond Claiborne. Wake Forest’s best running back after Claiborne averages all of four YPC, with his YPC being as high as it is because he had a great game against lowly Delaware.
For the above reasons, I’m seeing this game finish in the low-to-mid 40s – something like a 24-17 final score. Therefore, wager on under 53.5.
Place Your Bets Now!
Expect Michigan to pull off an upset that really doesn’t feel like an upset. Also expect a low-scoring game between Wake Forest and Mississippi State. Be sure to time your wagers well: there is line or total movement for both games, and you want to always give yourself the mathematically highest chance of winning your wagers.
No matter what, though, you should be fully confident in the above College Football bowl picks for this week. Capitalize on these favorable picks by opening an account and placing a bet today
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
