Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 28, 2021 – 9:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
The Mavericks have surprised us all. They stole both games from the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs and now lead the Clippers 2-0 in a best of seven series. Dallas is home now and with two home wins, they’ll sweep the Clippers and move on to the next round of the playoffs, knocking off a potential NBA Championship contender and a team that many believed could actually win it this year. In the second game of the series, Luka Doncic scored 39 points, assisted on seven baskets and rebounded seven shots while going 16-29 from the field and 5-13 from long range.
The Mavericks aren’t very deep outside of their starting five. Josh Richardson scored nine points in 19 minutes, Jalen Brunson scored nine points in 17 minutes and Willie Cauley-Stein scored six points and rebounds six shots in 15 minutes. That’s mainly their bench. The big thing in that second game was how efficient Kristaps Porzignis and Tim Hardaway Jr. were shooting.
Hardaway shot 9-14 from the field and 6-8 from long range. Meanwhile, Porzingis went 8-12 from the field and nailed three of his four attempts from long range. Even Max Kleber went 5-6 from the field and nailed his two three point attempts. The Mavs shot 58.5 percent from the field and 52.9 percent from long range. In the first game, the Mavs shot 47.2 percent from long range and 50 percent from the field. You’d have to imagine that these percentages don’t continue to stick around 50 percent.
The Mavs are shooting out of their mind right now and were able to steal two games from the Clippers because of it. Meanwhile, the Clippers, in the first game, shot 27.5 percent from long range and just 44 percent from the field. In the second game, the Clippers shot better, behind Kawhi Leonard’s 41 points but still only hit 39.4 percent from long range and 53.6 percent from the field.
At this point, it’s quite obvious. The Clippers need to defend the three much better than they have in the first two games of the series. During the season, the Mavericks shot 36.2 percent from long range while taking 40.8 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The Mavericks were 4th in the league in three point shooting frequency and shot many non-corner threes. 31.8 percent of their shot attempts on offense came from non-corner threes and the Mavs barely tried to score inside around the rim.
It’s interesting though because the Clippers were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA throughout the regular season and shot 46.5 percent from the corner three and nearly 40 percent from all other threes on the season. The Mavericks are basically giving the Clippers a taste of their own medicine. But the reality is, the Mavericks have defended above average against corner threes this season and have allowed only 36.8 percent of threes to be made on the year.
Prediction
With the Mavs at home, they’re going to have high energy but you can’t expect the Mavericks to sustain 50 percent or more from long range. The Clippers have actually been the team that can sustain a higher number and have shown that throughout the year. I like the Clippers to turn things around in this one and make this first round competitive and exciting against the Mavericks. We might see Game 7. But first, the Clippers have to win a couple games.
NBA Pick: Clippers (-135) at Bet 365
