Chargers vs. Lions Preseason Game Best Bets: A New Normal in Canton?
-
Jason Lake
- July 31, 2025
Thank goodness we didn’t have to wait for August to get our first NFL picks in for 2025. This year’s Hall of Fame Game is Thursday night in Canton, featuring two quality teams in the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions; the early consensus reports at press time show roughly two-thirds support for the Lions, driving them from a pick ‘em to -2.5 on the football lines at Bovada.
On the surface, this looks like a prime opportunity to take the other side. But there are land mines underneath that we can avoid by taking the Over instead. This hot commodity has also drawn a two-thirds consensus, but only enough action to bump Thursday’s total up slightly from 32.5 to 33 at most online sportsbooks. Let’s get some of this before the price gets any higher.
And before we jump in, remember to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily football advice!
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, July 31, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium
Is NFL Preseason Betting Any Good?
It’s one of the best times of year to bet. Exhibition games are much more predictable than regular-season or playoff games, although more and more people have figured that out since the start of this sports betting boom across North America.
It’s no longer good enough to simply look at the preseason ATS records for the head coaches in question. If it were, we’d have the Chargers in our NFL picks by a country mile. Jim Harbaugh is 11-8 SU and ATS lifetime in exhibition play; Lions head coach Dan Campbell is 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS. On top of that, underdogs of less than a field goal are cashing in at 60% since 2015. What’s not to love?
Quarterback Situations Key to This Matchup
Well, there’s the matchup itself. It’s almost certain we won’t see either No. 1 quarterback take the field Thursday; Harbaugh has already announced that Justin Herbert won’t dress, and No. 2 Taylor Heinicke will only serve as an emergency quarterback while Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei compete for the No. 3 gig holding the clipboard.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s depth chart behind Jared Goff includes Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen – and that’s it. Hooker played very well during the 2024 preseason, earning the backup job as the Lions went 2-1 SU and ATS (Over 2-1). Allen has 19 NFL starts under his belt and should give Hooker a good push in his first year with Detroit.
What About the Thunderstorms?
Yes, this is where our clever plan goes awry – or does it? Thursday’s weather forecast does indeed call for stormy weather over Canton, albeit intermittently with bursts around lunchtime, mid-afternoon, and later in the evening. Between 5-8 p.m. ET looks clear for now.
We do have to worry somewhat about soggy field conditions, especially at a venue that’s not part of the regular NFL rotation. But even here, the Hall of Fame Stadium has made upgrades in recent years, with the turf and the drainage and all that.
The two games they’ve played since both went over, at least in theory, as last year’s game was called in the third quarter due to lightning, with the Chicago Bears up 21-17 on the Houston Texans.
The Pick
Between the weather and Harbaugh’s propensity to run the damn football, we’ve got enough reason to recommend downsizing your bets for Thursday’s contest. But this is a good spot for Hooker and Allen to run up the score in their quarterback competition, and depending on your sportsbook’s rules, you’ll at least get your money back if the game doesn’t go 55 minutes.
Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you all year long.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
