The Toronto Maple Leafs can punch their ticket to the North Division final with a home win over the Montreal Canadiens in Game 5 of their playoff series on Thursday. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Thursday, May 27, 2021 – 07:00 PM EDT – at Scotiabank Arena
The Winnipeg Jets finished third in the NHL’s Canadian-only North Division this season but surprisingly swept out Connor McDavid and the second-place Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the playoffs on Monday. Thus, the Jets will be well-rested when they face the winner of this Canadiens-Maple Leafs series in Round 2. The Leafs can advance with a home victory – still no fans allowed – in Game 5 on Thursday. It’s the first of an NBC Sports Network doubleheader, with Carolina at Nashville Game 6 following it.
Toronto would be favored against the Jets, but the Canadiens wouldn’t. On the Bovada NHL futures odds, the Leafs are +500 favorites to hoist their first Stanley Cup since 1967 and +185 to make the Cup Finals. Montreal is +10000 to win the Cup and +6600 to make it there. The Leafs haven’t beaten the Canadiens in a playoff series since the 1967 Cup Finals – Toronto’s last title. Montreal is 1-4 in its past five trips to Toronto on the NHL picks. The under is 4-1 in the past five between the teams overall.
Canadiens Aren’t Scoring
Really no surprise that the Canadiens are probably going out in five games as they had the lowest point differential and worst goal differential among the 16 playoff teams. The club with the second-worst in both cases was St. Louis, and the Blues were swept by current Cup betting favorite Colorado. An Avalanche-Leafs Finals is very possible and priced at +375 on the NHL futures odds.
The Habs stole Game 1, 2-1 in Toronto, but have scored just two goals since to fall down 3-1. Carey Price has been in net for every game of this series, and I’ve seen nothing to indicate that interim coach Dominique Ducharme is thinking of going to backup Jake Allen. Montreal did outshoot Toronto 32-28 in Tuesday’s 4-0 loss but was 0-for-4 with the man advantage while allowing the Leafs one goal on two power-play opportunities.
“We've got to find a way to get to the inside. A lot of our shots are coming from the outside. (Leafs goaltender Jack) Campbell's sucking up the puck and not allowing a rebound. We've got to find a way to get in his eyes, get tips, get some sort of greasy goals to get us going,” Montreal defenseman Jeff Petry said. After missing Game 3 with an undisclosed injury, center Eric Staal was back in the lineup for Game 4. He was minus-1 in 9:16. Winger Artturi Lehkonen missed Game 4 after taking an unintentional hit to the head from Rasmus Sandin in Game 3. Lehkonen will not play Game 5. Montreal is 3-8 on the NHL odds in its past 11 as a road dog.
Leafs Riding Campbell, Nylander
Because Tuesday’s Game 4 was the second of a back-to-back, there was speculation that the Leafs would give former No. 1 Frederik Andersen his first start of the series in net, but Coach Sheldon Keefe stayed with Jack Campbell and he had 32 saves for his first career Cup playoff shutout. Campbell was the fourth different Leafs netminder to ever shut out Montreal in the playoffs and first Johnny Bower in Game 2 of the 1967 Stanley Cup Finals.
Alex Galchenyuk had a goal and two assists, Alexander Kerfoot three assists, Jason Spezza a goal and an assist, and William Nylander and Joe Thornton both found the net Tuesday. At almost 42 (in July), Thornton became the oldest Toronto player to record a point in a playoff game. The oldest Toronto player with a playoff goal prior to Thornton was his longtime San Jose Sharks teammate Patrick Marleau (38 years, 222 days) in Game 7 of the 2018 first round.
Meanwhile, Nylander has a goal in each game of this series, matching the longest postseason-opening run by a Toronto player in the NHL’s modern era (since 1943-44). He will try to tie the franchise record of five straight games with a goal at any point in a postseason Thursday. The last Leafs player to do that was Dave Andreychuk in 1993. The line of Kerfoot, Galchenyuk and William Nylander was dominant in Game 4. Kerfoot has played a bigger role for Toronto because of the injuries to John Tavares and Nick Foligno. Tavares won’t be back anytime soon after being hurt in Game 1. Foligno has missed the past two with a lower-body injury.
Toronto is on the precipice of winning its first playoff series since way back in 2004. Teams that hold a 3-1 lead are 292-29 (91.0 percent) winning a best-of-7 NHL playoff series. And we think the Leafs finish things off as they are 25-9 in their past 34 after a win.
NHL Pick: Leafs at -235 with BetOnline
