Bryant vs. Michigan State March Madness First Round Best Bet

There could be a closer battle than many expect in the South Region matchup Friday between 2nd-seeded Michigan State and 15th-seeded Bryant. No, we do not think the Bulldogs will challenge for an outright win, but with this spread currently at +17.5, we are taking the points while projecting a final winning outcome for Sparty closer to 10.

Terrible 3-Point Shooting

Michigan State is 27-6 and won the regular season Big Ten title at 17-3, although they did lose to Wisconsin in the conference tournament semifinals. With that said, they do have one fatal flaw on each end of the court that will always make them vulnerable against the spread as prohibitive favorites like they are here.

On offense, the Spartans are simply a terrible 3-point shooting team that ranks 328th in the country in that area at a measly 30.8%. That obviously means they cannot extend leads from beyond the arc with most of their points coming inside. And even there, Sparty is good but not exceptional with a 2-point percentage of 53.6% (86th).

The keys to Michigan State’s offensive success are offensive rebounding (30th) and getting to the foul line a lot (47th in FTA/FGA ratio). It also helps that they hit those free throws at a 78.1% clip (20th).

The defensive flaw is not turning opponents over much as the Spartans rank 226th in turnover percentage forced. That may come into play with the pace of this game.

Size Matters

Bryant is the class of the American East Conference as they are currently 23-11 after going 14-2 inside the league and then bulldozing their way through three double-digit wins in the conference tournament. Now, we get that the AE is not the Big Ten, but the sheer size of Bryant can cause havoc for any team as they are the sixth tallest team in the country with an average height of 6’7.1”!

That height has manifested itself in the defensive end where the Bulldogs rank 45th in defensive efficiency. As you might expect with that size, their defensive strength is on the interior where they are 48th in 2-point shooting allowed at 47.4% (national average 51.0%). And remember that Michigan State cannot shoot 3-pointers, which may allow Bryant to sag an extra body inside to make the interior defense doubly tough.

Offensively, the Bulldogs’ strength is offensive rebounding where they are 56th nationally. But perhaps more importantly for this game, they are better than average in offensive turnover percentage at 16.5%. Given that the Spartans do not force many turnovers, that could allow Bryant to control the tempo here, and the ability to extend possessions is a great trait for a humongous underdog like this.

The Pick

In the end, Michigan State should win this game and not destroy many brackets in the BMR Forum March Madness Bracket Contest. However, Bryant can do enough with their size and interior defense to keep this final margin within around 10 points, good enough to bet on the Bulldogs as enormous underdogs.

Predicted Score: Michigan State 79 – Bryant 68

NCAAB Pick: Bryant +17.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Bryant +17.5 (-108)

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