The Blue Jays and Red Sox scored six runs combined in the first two innings and then just one run in the final seven innings of last night’s game. The Blue Jays ultimately won that game, 6-1 despite Boston notching 10 hits in that game.
Can the Boston Red Sox get back on track against Toronto after a painful loss to the Blue Jays last night? Below, I’ll break down the MLB odds and share a winning pick!
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Thursday, April 21, 2022 – 01:35 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Kevin Gausman
I don’t think the Red Sox will be earning 10 hits in today’s MLB game. Kevin Gausman will take the for the Blue Jays. On the year, Gausman is 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA but he’s ultimately allowed just five runs in 10.2 innings. He’s been close to earning quality starts and hasn’t walked a single batter while striking out 14.
Don’t look at his ERA. Gausman is going to be just fine. Dating back to last season, the right-hander had a 3.40 xFIP with 29.7% strikeouts. He’s also walked just 6.4% of batters and continues to keep power numbers down.
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The Red Sox lineup is very good with a solid stack at the top of the order. However, as a team, the Red Sox have a .318 wOBA against righties dating back to last year, along with 23.5% strikeouts and 8% walks. Gausman has held this Red Sox roster to a 673 OPS.
Tanner Houck
On the other hand, Tanner Houck will get the call for the Red Sox. Houck has been just as good with a 3.42 xFIP along with 28.8% strikeouts. It’s very hard to hit for power against Houck but lefties have a wOBA of .301 against him.
The thing is that the Blue Jays will only have one lefty in the lineup and Houck destroys right-handed batters, allowing a .245 wOBA and ISO of .085 through 192 plate appearances dating back to last season.
To start the year, Houck has allowed six walks to just seven strikeouts. He’s only allowed three runs through two starts but has been getting into trouble. The Blue Jays still have the power to make teams pay for walks and whatnot.
Prediction
With that said, I’m looking at the 'under' 9 for my MLB pick. We’ve got two pitchers that have been incredibly good dating back to last season with xFIPs under 4 and high strikeouts along with low walks.
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Yes, Houck has walked quite a few batters to start the year. Yes, Gausman has been giving up a ton of hits. However, if you look at Gausman’s full body of work, the hits will start to dwindle down and he’ll continue to limit walks. Meanwhile, Houck will start to find the strike zone more and should have no problems against a nearly all right-handed lineup.
The Blue Jays lineup only has 18 at-bats against Houck but in those 18 at-bats, the Blue Jays have just four hits for a .167 batting average. This average includes players like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Take the 'under' 9 in this one.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
