The 2026 MLB season has arrived. One of my favorite parts about baseball is watching a great pitcher dominate on the mound. There’s nothing like seeing Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes mow down opposing hitters.
To that end, it’s a fun time to think about Cy Young odds, thinking about who can dethrone Skubal or Skenes. We’re going to dive into a contender and a sleeper for both the AL and NL for Cy Young.
Find out why I think we’ll get a new winner for Cy Young in each league in this MLB predictions piece. Click here to check out the best MLB sportsbooks to place your wagers.
2026 AL Cy Young Odds
All MLB odds used for these Cy Young predictions are current as of Tuesday, Mar. 24, and courtesy of BetOnline.
- Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+225)
- Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (+350)
- Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+1000)
- Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+1200)
- Hunter Brown, Houston Astros (+1400)
- Max Fried, New York Yankees (+1400)
- Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (+1600)
- Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners (+1600)
- Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
- Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays (+2500)
- Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+2800)
- Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (+2800)
- MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers (+2800)
All other players have odds of +3300 or longer.
Who Will Win AL Cy Young?
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (+1200)
Cole Ragans is a compelling pick to win the 2026 AL Cy Young, especially at +1800. His strikeout ability is truly elite, giving him the kind of swing-and-miss profile that can separate him from the field over a full season. When he’s on, he has the tools to dominate lineups and rack up strikeouts at an ace-level pace.
The main concern has always been durability, but he looks fully healthy entering this season. If he can stay on the mound and log a full workload, the upside is undeniable.
With the combination of strong ratios and high-end strikeout potential, Ragans checks all the boxes. At +1800, there’s excellent value on a pitcher who has the talent to win this award.
The Betting Favorite: Is It Skubal Again?
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+225)
Tarik Skubal enters the 2026 season as the two-time defending AL Cy Young winner, and he’s once again the favorite at +225. After back-to-back dominant campaigns, he’s firmly established himself as the best pitcher in baseball, combining elite stuff with consistent results.
The big question now is whether he can make it three in a row, especially with added motivation in a contract year. The talent and track record are undeniable, so he’s more than capable of putting together another Cy Young-caliber season.
With that said, the price reflects all of it. At +225, there’s little value in backing such a heavy favorite, even with his dominance. As good as Skubal is, it’s difficult to justify the bet at that number.
The Contender: Can Crochet Take Over?
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (+350)
Garrett Crochet enters the 2026 season as one of the top contenders for the AL Cy Young at +350. Like Tarik Skubal, he offers a dominant combination of strikeout ability and heavy workload, giving him the kind of profile that can anchor an award-winning campaign. When he’s at his best, he pairs elite swing-and-miss stuff with some of the strongest ERA and WHIP numbers in the league.
You do get a slight discount compared to Skubal, but the price is still fairly steep. For a position as volatile as starting pitching, that kind of number can be difficult to justify.
Injury risk is always part of the equation with pitchers, and that only adds to the hesitation here. While Crochet has the talent to win it, the odds feel a bit too inflated to fully buy in.
The Longshot: Look Out For This Sleeper
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays (+2500)
Dylan Cease is an intriguing longshot in the AL Cy Young race at +2500, thanks to his elite strikeout upside and ability to handle a heavy workload. He has the tools to log 180+ innings while piling up strikeouts at a rate that can rival anyone in the league.
We’ve also seen the ceiling before. Cease has previously delivered a sub-3.00 ERA season, proving he’s capable of performing at a Cy Young level when everything clicks.
Now in Toronto, there’s reason for optimism. The Blue Jays have a track record of helping pitchers unlock another level, as seen with Robbie Ray’s breakout. If they can do the same with Cease, he has the upside to vastly outperform his +2500 price.
2026 NL Cy Young Odds
- Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (+225)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)
- Christopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (+600)
- Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (+900)
- Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+1800)
- Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (+1800)
- Freddy Peralta, New York Mets (+2200)
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500)
- Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)
- Eury Perez, Miami Marlins (+2500)
- Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers (+2500)
- Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2800)
- Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+2800)
All other players have odds of +3300 or longer.
Who Will Win NL Cy Young?
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (+600)
Cristopher Sanchez is a strong contender in the NL Cy Young race at +600. This profile checks every box you’re looking for. He’s a reliable, high-volume starter who can handle a full workload while delivering elite ratios and impressive strikeout upside.
That combination of durability and efficiency makes him a steady presence at the top of the rotation. When everything is clicking, he has the ability to consistently limit damage while missing plenty of bats.
Add in the team context, and the case gets even stronger. Pitching for a World Series contender like the Phillies only boosts his chances, giving him both the wins and visibility needed to compete for the award. At +600, the price feels justified.
The Betting Favorite: Is It Skenes Again?
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (+225)
Paul Skenes has a very real shot to win the NL Cy Young for a second straight season. His deep arsenal, elite stuff, and ability to handle a heavy workload make him one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. When he’s on, he can overwhelm hitters in multiple ways, giving him a true ace profile.
The environment only adds to his case. Pitching in a favorable home park and backed by an improving Pirates team, Skenes is set up for both strong numbers and the kind of team success that voters notice.
It all points toward another Cy Young-caliber season. The only concern is the price, which is already inflated, making it difficult to find real betting value despite his obvious talent.
The Contender: Can Yamamoto Take The Award?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto enters the 2026 season as a serious NL Cy Young contender at +500 after a dominant World Series performance against the Blue Jays that showcased just how electric he can be on the biggest stage. When he’s at his best, he looks every bit like one of the top pitchers in baseball, with elite command and swing-and-miss stuff.
That talent alone makes him a major factor in this race. Few pitchers can match his ability to control games and limit damage while still piling up strikeouts.
The concern, however, lies in his situation. The Dodgers boast a loaded rotation, which could limit Yamamoto’s overall workload. That potential cap on volume makes it harder to justify the price, even with his undeniable upside.
The Longshot: Look Out For This Sleeper
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)
Jesus Luzardo is an intriguing longshot in the NL Cy Young race at +2500, offering strong value for a pitcher with his profile. He has the ability to handle a full workload while generating plenty of strikeouts, giving him the kind of upside needed to break into the conversation.
That combination of volume and swing-and-miss stuff makes him a dangerous option at this price point. If he can put everything together over a full season, the production could stack up quickly.
Team context only adds to the appeal. Pitching for a contending Phillies squad gives Luzardo the opportunity to rack up wins and stay in the spotlight. At +2500, there’s real value on a pitcher who checks several key boxes.
Final Verdict: Fade Skubal and Skenes
When it comes to betting on Cy Young futures, it’s rarely a good idea to side with the heavy favorites. Pitching is inherently volatile, and over the course of a long season, there’s simply too much that can go wrong, especially when it comes to injuries.
Even the most dominant arms aren’t immune to setbacks, and it only takes a short absence or dip in form to derail an award campaign. That makes it difficult to justify investing in short-priced options like Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.
While both have the talent to win, the risk outweighs the reward at their current odds. In a market like this, it’s smarter to look for value elsewhere and avoid tying your bet to such narrow margins.
