Today we’ll take a look at the race for the postseason in the American League and preview a matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners. We’ll go over the MLB odds available at most sports betting sites.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, September 13, 2021 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Boston Is Heating Back Up
After a disaster of a beginning to the second half, the Red Sox find themselves right back in the thick of the American League playoff race. Entering Monday, they’re sitting all alone in a position to take the second wild-card spot with the Yankees just a game behind them and the A’s and Mariners tied at 77-66, three games back.
While Boston had a great run to get back to this position, one which they surely would have expected to be in a couple of months ago, it will need to keep winning here to fend off the Mariners, who could snatch this spot with a sweep.
The Red Sox have been very respectable at the plate lately, posting a 105 wRC+ over the last two weeks to rank 11th in baseball. In those games, they’ve walked 9.4% of the time, and his .267.
They’ve been very effective in just about every area, adding a beefy 9.4% barrel rate to a 42.2% hard-hit rate to rank among the best in the game over the last 14 days, but they’ve been poor in one area. Boston has struck out in 24.4% of its plate appearances, which rates as a very poor mark.
The Red Sox will throw Eduardo Rodriguez here, who has been feeling unlucky this year. He owns a 5.15 ERA, but the indicators would show that he should be pitching much better than that.
His 34.5% hard-hit rate is hardly as good as it was last year, but it’s still pretty solid, and his 3.67 xERA would indicate he won’t pitch to an ERA north of five runs forever. His strikeout rate has actually risen over 27% this year, which has been impressive.
The Mariners Are Struggling Down the Homestretch
It couldn’t be going much worse for the Mariners, who have dropped four games in their last six. While it’s understandable to go into Houston and lose two of three, coming back home and losing a weekend series to the Diamondbacks, a team that hasn’t even hit 50 wins, is embarrassing.
The Mariners’ offense has deserted it at the worst time. They rank 18th over the last two weeks with a .309 wOBA, and have made quality contact on under 37% of batted balls.
Seattle is walking a bunch, but that won’t do it much good against Rodriguez, who can limit walks. It is also absolutely dreadful against lefties, ranking 25th in wRC+ in that split this year.
Logan Gilbert has been good, though. The team’s No. 4 prospect may have a 5.10 ERA, but like Rodriguez the indicators expect that to come down. He’s also had some very quality starts mixed in with some bad ones, but over his last two — both against the Astros — he impressed with nine strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. He allowed just two runs on 10 hits in those two games.
The Pick
I don’t see a way into this game for the Mariners, who can’t really hit lefties and have been lackadaisical at the plate lately. The MLB pick here is to back the Red Sox as a short road favorite with a talented starting pitcher on the hill.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-116) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
