Both No. 13 Arkansas and No. 17 Ole Miss come off lopsided losses in SEC play as they meet in Oxford on Saturday.
Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Alabama and Georgia are the top two teams in the country and the two favorites at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks to win the national title. Thus, there’s no shame in losing in lopsided fashion to either. That’s what happened to both No. 13 Arkansas and No. 17 Ole Miss last Saturday, which all but ended either’s chances of winning the SEC West Division. They meet in Oxford this Saturday with an early noon kick on ESPN. Both still have designs on a New Year’s Six major bowl.
Arkansas leads the all-time series vs. Ole Miss 36-28-1. This will be just the seventh meeting when both are ranked and first since 2016. The Rebels lead in that scenario 4-2.
Last season, Ole Miss was a 1-point favorite on the NCAAF odds in Fayetteville but the Razorbacks won 33-21. Feleipe Franks, now with the Atlanta Falcons, threw for 244 yards and a score for the Hogs. Treylon Burks, who is still with the team, caught 11 passes for 137 yards and a score – no other player had more than two catches.
Matt Corral threw for 200 yards and two scores for Ole Miss, while Elijah Moore (now with the Jets) caught 11 passes for 113 yards and a TD. The Rebels turned the ball over a whopping seven times, with Corral picked six times.
The underdog is 9-1 against the spread in the past 10 meetings.
Razorbacks Taught Lesson by Dawgs
Arkansas (4-1) was ranked No. 8 in last week’s AP Top 25 but fell to No. 13 with a 37-0 loss at Georgia as a 16.5-point underdog on the NCAAF odds. That Georgia defense is one of the best we have seen in college football in years and allowed just 162 total yards. The Hogs had nine first downs, were 3-for-12 on third down, and committed 13 penalties for 101 yards. It’s a program on the rise under Coach Sam Pittman but still obviously not on Georgia’s level.
UGA jumped out to a three-touchdown lead in the first quarter on back-to-back scoring drives and a punt-block touchdown to open the game. The Hogs hadn’t allowed a first-quarter point entering the game. The Dawgs didn’t even have starting QB JT Daniels due to injury. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson was 8-of-13 for 65 yards passing. He didn’t play in the fourth quarter.
"I don’t want to simplify this, but they just whipped us physically," Pittman said. "We couldn’t block them and we couldn’t get off blocks for much of the day. … We’re not going to have a problem regrouping. We won four games in a row, beat a 15-ranked team, beat a 7-ranked football team.”
With a win on Saturday, Arkansas would improve to 5-1 for the first time since 2011 — when the Hogs tied a school record with 11 victories. The Razorbacks are still one of only four teams nationally — along with Alabama, Georgia, and Stanford — to claim multiple wins against Top-15 ranked opponents this year.
It will be fascinating to see the Hogs’ No. 2 national pass defense (129.8 ypg allowed) against a high-powered Ole Miss pass offense. Arkansas is 6-2 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past eight after a loss.
Corral’s Heisman Hopes Not Dead
Ole Miss (3-1) was ranked No. 12 last week and a 16-point underdog at Alabama and lost 42-21. That game was over at the half with the Tide up 28-0. Bama rushed the ball a whopping 50 times for 210 yards and four touchdowns.
The Rebs’ powerful offense was held to just 291 total yards and was 5-for-14 on third down. They failed to score on the opening possession for the first time all season. Matt Corral, who had been tied as the Heisman Trophy betting favorite with Alabama QB Bryce Young, was 21-for-29 for 213 yards with a TD and also rushed for a score. He’s back to a +200 second-favorite to Young (+100).
Corral has thrown a TD pass in 16 straight games, tied for the second-longest in school history behind Chad Kelly’s 22 in a row. Corral ranks Top 10 nationally in total offense (342.8 ypg), passing efficiency (177.3), points responsible for (96), and yards per pass attempt (9.68). Ole Miss is one of five teams nationally yet to throw an interception.
The Rebs have 90 total plays of 10 or more yards so far this season and rank second in the SEC and No. 13 nationally in that category. They average 22.5 such plays per game which leads the country. Ole Miss also leads the country in both fourth-down attempts (19) and conversions (14) as Lane Kiffin is very aggressive. Against the Tide, though, the Rebs failed on three fourth-and-short tries in the first half and all three led to Alabama touchdowns.
Receiver Jonathan Mingo missed the game with a reported broken foot and he’s obviously not playing here, either, if it is indeed broken (yet to be confirmed). He has totaled 15 receptions for 290 yards (19.3 average) and scored three touchdowns this year.
Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past seven as a home favorite. We think it can win by at least a TD.
NCAAF pick: Ole Miss at -6.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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