The Sun Belt Conference wraps up its regular season this weekend, setting the stage for one of the first conference tournaments of March Madness. Second place Appalachian State will finish up on the road at the Arkansas State Red Wolves. App is 18-12, 12-5 in the league and could move to within percentage points of first place with a win. Arkansas State is looking to finish above .500 in the league at 16-10, 7-7. The Red Wolves are in seventh and could finish anywhere from fifth to ninth.
App. State Mountaineers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Friday, 25 February, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at First National Bank Arena
The Sun Belt Conference wraps up its regular season this weekend, setting the stage for one of the first conference tournaments of March Madness. Second-place Appalachian State will finish up on the road at the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
App is 18-12, 12-5 in the league and could move to within percentage points of first place with a win, although, due to an uneven number of games in the conference schedules, the Mountaineers would actually be a half-game ahead in the standings, although they’d still have the two seed. A loss drops them to three.
VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day
Arkansas State is looking to finish above .500 in the league, at 16-10, 7-7 heading into the game. The Red Wolves are in seventh place and could finish anywhere from fifth to ninth.
Putting Things Together for the Postseason
App State opened the conference season at 8-2 but has plateaued, going 4-3 since, including back-to-back home losses to Quad IV opponents Georgia State and Troy. Since then, the Mountaineers have won two in a row and will look to hit the postseason tournament on a roll. App wrapped up a first-round bye in the tourney with its last win.
App has won three straight over Arkansas State, including a win in Boone, NC earlier this season, 61-54.
The Mountaineers have struggled with their shooting this season. They rank No. 263 in the country in effective field goal percentage and are hitting below 50 percent on their two-point attempts (No. 261 at 47.5 percent). App isn’t much more effective from three, ranking No. 236 at 32.5 percent.
PLAY NOW: BMR’s Official Picks Thread $1600 Nascar Contest
App put things together in the last game, however, hitting 22-of-38 from two and 10-of-23 from three in one of its best all-around shooting nights of the season. That game was on the road, and the Mountaineers will look to keep the shots falling away from home in Friday’s clash.
Michael Almonacy led the way, hitting a career-high six three-pointers on his way to a season-high 26 points.
Late Season Spiral
Arkansas State has one last chance to reverse its fortunes before one-and-done season arrives. The Red Wolves have lost four of their last five games, including Wednesday’s game against Coastal Carolina. They’ve lost six of nine since opening conference play 4-1.
Ball security has been one of Arkansas State’s biggest problems. The Red Wolves turn it over on more than one fifth of their possessions, which ranks No. 307 in the country.
Arkansas State is 14-5 on the year when outrebounding its opponents. The Red Wolves will rely on Norchad Omier to help control the boards. Omier is the NCAA basketball's leading career rebounder at a 12.2 per-game average. He also leads the Sun Belt in rebounding this season and is second in the conference in scoring. He’s increased both averages in conference play, going from 17.4 ppg to 19.6 and from 12.1 rebounds to 13.6.
Omier hasn’t gotten much help from his teammates in recent games, however. Arkansas State’s 16.7 percent offensive rebounding percentage in its last game was its lowest in more than a month.
Arkansas State also hasn’t been hitting from outside to give Omier room to work in the paint. The Red Wolves are No. 268 in the country in three-point shooting and have had 2-for-20 and 3-for-20 games shooting from three in the last four contests.
The Pick
Arkansas State allows opponents to hit a third of their three-point attempts, which could be the spark App needs to keep its threes falling, a huge factor for my college basketball pick. App State will slow down the pace and try to clog the middle to neutralize Omier. Look for the Mountaineers to get a hard-fought road win.
NCAAB Pick: App State +2 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
