NFL Pick: 2023 AFC West – Los Angeles Chargers (+335) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
In 2022, heightened anticipation surrounded the AFC West as it appeared to promise an epic divisional showdown, fueled by all teams’ ambitious efforts to dethrone the dominant Kansas City Chiefs. Yet, our early optimism quickly gave way to reality.
The Chiefs soared with a 2-0 start, while Justin Herbert’s injury hampered the Chargers and the Denver Broncos struggled to find their offensive footing. The Las Vegas Raiders faced a heartbreaking setback, squandering a substantial lead against Arizona and stumbling in overtime.
Although the Chargers managed a comeback, clinching a playoff spot, the division’s fate was effectively sealed by Thanksgiving as the Chiefs asserted their supremacy through a clean sweep. Meanwhile, the Raiders and Broncos became subjects of disappointment, enduring a combined total of 11 fourth-quarter lead losses — a disheartening league record for two teams in the previous season. As we peer ahead, the question lingers: Could this be the year that Justin Herbert ascends to new heights?
Our assessment leans toward optimism, prompting a comprehensive exploration of the forthcoming NFL futures within the AFC West.
Quick Overview
Here are the current AFC West odds from the top offshore sportsbooks, for the 2023-24 NFL season, as of August 9, 2023.
Key Facts
- The Chiefs’ top three starting wide receivers; Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, combined for just 1,108 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season.
- Former Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will take over the reins in Los Angeles where the Chargers have plenty to work with as Justin Herbert will see a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams along with another field-stretcher in first-round pick, Quentin Johnston out of TCU. Austin Ekeler also adds another dimension as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the game.
- Should Russell Wilson get back on track he has a dynamic duo at his disposal in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton along with a talented wideout from Oklahoma, second-round pick Marvin Mims Jr., all of whom could get the Broncos back on the map.
- The Raiders’ Davante Adams, lived up to the hype last season with over 1,500 receiving yards and 14 touchdown catches. Let’s also note that running back Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last year with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns while catching 53 passes for 400 yards.
Kansas City Chiefs
- 2022 Record (14-3)
- Super Bowl Odds: +650
What would you say if the three starting wideouts on a team’s roster combined for just 1,108 yards and four touchdowns last season? Well, that’s what the Chiefs have in Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore after the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster to New England.
Of course, you could counter this argument by referencing the man pulling the trigger, Patrick Mahomes, and his stalwart tight end, Travis Kelce, as being the top players at their respective positions. Yet, doesn’t this concern anyone?
Chalky Favorites
Apparently not, as the public loves the chalky favorites and the oddsmakers eagerly oblige by setting the prices accordingly. But maybe we buck the system and look to another challenger to win the AFC West as the Chiefs have a permanent target on their backs, deservedly so, and only addressed this need in the draft by choosing SMU wideout, Rashee Rice, late in the second round.
Let’s also understand that All-World tight end, Travis Kelce, will be 34 in October and nobody gets better at that age, nor do they often stay as healthy as they have been. Should Kelce get injured or falter, that is an enormous weapon taken away from Mahomes with no proven replacement.
The defense that struggled early last season rounded into form in the second half after their young players made the adjustment to the lightning-fast speed of the NFL. That unit should be solid yet again which bodes well for the team’s chances to make another Super Bowl run.
And although it wouldn’t shock me to see the Chiefs wrap up their eighth consecutive division crown, I believe the -165 odds over at BetOnline are simply too pricey and better value is found elsewhere.
Los Angeles Chargers
- 2022 Record (10-7)
- Super Bowl Odds: +2200
Dak Prescott enjoyed irrefutable success under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore but that relationship ended when the team decided to part ways with the dynamic 35-year-old offensive whiz. Believe it or not, Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy didn’t like Moore’s hurry-up-and-score style that saw the Cowboys rank as the No. 1 scoring team in 2021 and No. 4 last year, saying he needed a more rigid commitment to the running game that would allow his defense to rest.
Moore hadn’t been released for more than a minute before the Chargers came calling and were overjoyed to pair Moore’s frenetic offensive style with their prolific young quarterback, Justin Herbert. This looks like a match made in heaven and if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can stay healthy the Bolts will be an electric offense this season and a viable challenger for the Chiefs.
Drafting Help
I should also add that Los Angeles also drafted TCU’s speed merchant, Quentin Johnston, with the 21st overall pick. While many would have opted for a slot receiver rather than more of the same as what they already have with Allen and Williams, it will just add to the juggernaut Herbert will have at his disposal to stretch the field. Perfect for an OC like Kellen Moore who likes nothing more than to do just that.
And if that isn’t enough, let’s not forget about one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league, Austin Ekeler. With stellar offensive lineman, Rashawn Slater, returning healthy after playing just three games last season, this will be a fun bunch to watch.
Defensively, the Chargers are not nearly as adept but Joey Bosa will return healthy after an injury-plagued 2022 and when teamed with Khalil Mack, there are few if any better tandems in the league. However, the rest of the D is not nearly as stout and could be an issue stopping the pass when push comes to shove.
Denver Broncos
- 2022 Record (5-12)
- Super Bowl Odds: +5000
The Broncos have not been shy about mortgaging the future for the here and now as evidenced by their turning over a king’s ransom to the Seahawks for Russell Wilson, an abject failure in his first season at Mile High last year.
And the trend continued as they dealt a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second-round pick in exchange for former Saints’ head coach Sean Payton. But the biggest changes occurred where very few bettors are tempted to look – the offensive line. Blindside tackle Garett Bolles will return after being injured and a revamped line will do wonders for Wilson.
Dynamic Duo
Should Russell Wilson get back on track he has a dynamic duo at his disposal in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton along with a talented wideout from Oklahoma, second-round pick Marvin Mims Jr., which could see the Broncos back on the map. Meanwhile, running back Javonte Williams is taking reps after tearing his ACL last season which bodes well for the Broncos rushing attack.
Defensively, Denver has some serious talent that simply needs to stay healthy. Linebacker Randy Gregory was out for much of last season, negatively impacting the Broncos’ pass rush, while former Cardinal Zach Allen will plug the interior. Patrick Surtain and K’Waun Williams are excellent corners and that duo will have help in third-round pick out of Iowa, Riley Moss.
The Broncos will be much better this season than last but it’s unlikely they have the juice to compete with the Chiefs or the Chargers.
Las Vegas Raiders
- 2022 Record (6-11)
- Super Bowl Odds: +7500
Josh McDaniels needs to win this year if he is to remain in Sin City. His first season was as disastrous as his two years in Denver over a decade ago and although he has been hailed as one of the game’s preeminent offensive minds, it hasn’t translated to head coaching success.
But all is not lost as McDaniels has surrounded himself with familiar faces in former New Patriots Jimmy Garoppolo along with wide receivers Jakobi Meyers, Phillip Dorsett, and Kristian Wilkerson.
The Big Name
The big-name leading the receiving corps is former Packers phenom, Davante Adams, who lived up to the hype last season with over 1,500 receiving yards and 14 touchdown catches. Let’s also note that running back Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing last year with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns while catching 53 passes for 400 yards. Just another weapon for Garoppolo or whomever is pulling the trigger for the Raiders.
While the Raiders have the makings of an explosive offense, we should note that Garoppolo is more of a game manager than a game changer and a reported injury could see veteran journeyman, Brian Hoyer, taking over the quarterbacking duties. If that happens, consider the Raiders done and McDaniels packing his bags for destinations unknown.
NFL Pick: 2023 AFC West – Los Angeles Chargers (+335) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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