Three of four No. 1 seeds are still dancing. All four No. 2 seeds punched their tickets. The 2026 NCAA Tournament has largely followed the script. That doesn’t mean the first weekend of the tourney was drama-free. Iowa’s Alvaro Folgueiras buried a late three to send defending champion Florida to Cancun. St. John’s Dylan Darling hit a buzzer-beating layup to sink Kansas. No. 11 Texas kept the double-digit Sweet 16 streak alive by knocking off Gonzaga. The bracket has been chalky, but the margins have been razor-thin in spots, and that matters when you’re betting the board.
With the Sweet 16 tipping off Thursday and the Elite Eight on deck this weekend, it’s time to dig into the 2026 March Madness betting trends that should shape how you attack the next two rounds.
Favorites Are Dominating SU But the Spread Tells a Different Story
Let’s break this down into two categories.
On one hand, underdogs have struggled straight up, going 9-39 through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament (including First Four). To this point, that’s the fewest upsets we’ve seen since 2018 – ironic, considering an 11-seed made the Final Four that year.
This was expected, to an extent. NIL has only widened the gap between top programs and mid-majors, and that’s evident in how top-heavy this year’s tournament has been so far. And while one double-digit seed managed to make the Sweet 16, you can hardly consider them a Cinderella. No. 11 Texas is a powerhouse of a program that ultimately had a rough go of things in a crowded SEC.
Underdogs have also gone 19-29 against the spread, once again indicating that favorites have been quite dominant. There have been some exceptions to the rule – Duke’s narrow victory over Siena comes to mind – but for every game where a heavy favorite has struggled, there have been teams like Houston, which won each of its first two matchups by 31 points.
Things are likely to even out a bit as we get deeper into the tournament. We’re whittling down to the best of the best, and the margin between teams like Arizona and Arkansas is quite slim. Still, it’s probably in your best interest to continue leaning on favorites for the time being.
Should You Bet the Over or Under?
We don’t typically see huge disparities between overs and unders, and that’s held true through the first two rounds of March Madness. Unders have the slight edge at 25-23, and theoretically, the probability should hover right around 50 percent.
Unless you have a great angle on a certain number, it may be best to avoid full-game unders and focus on first-half totals instead. Some of the best teams in this tournament prefer to slow the tempo, and we’ve already seen some massive second halves.
Which Conferences Make Up the Sweet 16?
There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but for now, the NCAA Tournament belongs to the Big Ten. Here’s how the Sweet 16 teams are represented by conference:
- Big Ten: 6
- SEC: 4
- Big 12: 3
- Big East: 2
- ACC: 1
Let’s bring in some additional context and see how many teams are remaining from each conference when considering how many total teams they each sent to the Big Dance:
- Big Ten: 6 remaining; 9 total (66 percent)
- Big East: 2 remaining; 3 total (66 percent)
- SEC: 4 remaining; 10 total (40 percent)
- Big 12: 3 remaining; 8 total (37.5 percent)
- ACC: 1 remaining; 8 total (12.5 percent)
On top of having the highest remaining number of teams in the tournament, the Big Ten is also tied with the Big East for the highest proportion of remaining teams to total sent.
The Big Ten’s dominance goes from top to bottom, too. No. 1 Michigan is the head of the dragon, but there’s also No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Michigan State, No. 3 Illinois, No. 4 Nebraska and No. 9 Iowa. The Big Ten is the only conference with at least one team still alive in all four regions.
No matter what happens in the Sweet 16, the Big Ten will send at least one team through to the Elite Eight: Nebraska and Iowa are set to face off in the South region after both squads knocked off SEC superpowers in the Round of 32.
Final Four Noobs
Of the seven teams with the most NCAA Tournament appearances without a Final Four, only one is still in contention to get there this year: Tennessee.
- BYU: 34
- Missouri: 32
- Tennessee: 28
- Utah State: 27
- Miami (OH): 19
- Texas A&M: 19
- Vanderbilt: 18
It’s a bit shocking to realize that Tennessee has never had a team reach the Final Four. The Volunteers have made the NCAA Tournament in 15 of the last 20 years, including nine Sweet 16 appearances and three Elite Eight. Moreover, Tennessee has made its way into the AP top 10 in 10 of the last 20 years, achieving the No. 1 rank in three different seasons.
Unfortunately for the Vols, they’re likely to add another tally. A Sweet 16 meeting with No. 2 Iowa State spells trouble, and they’d presumably have to get through No. 1 Michigan should they upset the Cyclones.
Where Are the Sweet 16 Teams From?
Is there much value to this information? No, not really. But it is interesting to see which regions of the United States are most represented by the remaining 16 teams:
- Michigan: 2 (Michigan, Michigan State)
- Iowa: 2 (Iowa, Iowa State)
- Texas: 2 (Houston, Texas)
- Nebraska: 1 (Nebraska)
- Illinois: 1 (Illinois)
- Alabama: 1 (Alabama)
- Tennessee: 1 (Tennessee)
- New York: 1 (St. John’s)
- Connecticut: 1 (UConn)
- North Carolina: 1 (Duke)
- Indiana: 1 (Purdue)
- Arkansas: 1 (Arkansas)
- Arizona: 1 (Arizona)
Michigan, Iowa and Texas are the only states with more than one team left in the NCAA Tournament, but that’s not the most intriguing thing to take from this set of data. Let’s instead look at the geographic regions they represent:
- Midwest: 7 (Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue)
- South: 4 (Alabama, Tennessee, Duke, Arkansas)
- West: 3 (Arizona, Texas, Houston)
- Northeast: 2 (St. John’s, UConn)
If you can find any props about which state or region the NCAA Tournament champion will come from, stick to the Midwest first. Much like the Big Ten, they overwhelmingly represent the majority of remaining teams.
What to Know Moving Forward
Betting trends are one of many useful tools to help sports bettors make informed decisions. They shouldn’t be used strictly on their own, but in tandem with good research and a sharp angle, they belong in a gambler’s bag of essentials.
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