2025 Belmont Stakes Preview: Checking the Favorites and Contenders
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Doug Upstone
- May 28, 2025
It is less than two weeks until the last leg of the Triple Crown will take place in Saratoga, New York. The field is taking shape, but plenty of unknowns still need to be determined.
The biggest unknown for the Belmont Stakes is if Journalism will be a part of the field looking to have the Preakness and Belmont victories on his resume? Trainer Mike McCarthy is following his typical plan to make certain his horse is fresh and fit enough to compete running a third time in five weeks.
This is unlikely to be known until the day before the official Belmont Stakes draw for post position, which will occur Monday, June 2. So, before we get to see official odds at the top-rated sportsbooks, let’s take a gander at how the Belmont Stakes is shaping up.
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Horses Likely to Run in the Belmont Stakes
For those horse bettors who might have forgotten from last year, Belmont Park is being renovated and is not open. That moved racing to the beautiful Saratoga Race Course. Because Belmont was such a large oval, the Belmont Stakes was the longest of the three crown jewels at 1.5 miles. However, since Saratoga is configured differently, this race will be the same length as the Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles.
Sovereignty
Derby winner Sovereignty is back in action, as this highly regarded closer caught Journalism to win. That was Sovereignty’s third win in six starts.
Looking back, the plan seemed all along to do the Derby/Belmont combo, keeping the horse fresh and on schedule to run in other top races this summer. He will undoubtedly be the favorite when the gates are selected and on race day.
Baeza
Whether Journalism makes it to Saratoga or not, Baeza will bring a lot of attention as more of a value play for horse bettors.
Veteran trainer John Shirreffs has a horse with the pedigree and talent to change the thought process of this group of three-year-olds, being just two horses. After a terrific 101 speed rating at the Santa Anita Derby for a second-place finish to Journalism, Baeza went from 15th in 3rd at Churchill Downs and was still gaining on Journalism, who was second. Keep an eye on this horse.
Quiet Threats
Besides these top 2, there are three others expected to take the track. They are Rodriquez, Heart of Honor, and Hill Road.
- Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez pulled out of the Derby with a bruised foot. Because he couldn’t train enough for the Preakness, he bowed out there. This is a Bob Baffert-trained horse; thus, expect a quality effort.
- Heart of Honor is a Japanese entrée that was runner-up at the UAE Derby and fifth at the Preakness. Not sure he measures up to his American counterpart currently.
- Hill Road won the Peter Pan Stakes this spring in just his second start. Trainer Chad Brown annually has a horse he picks from the stable that runs well in big races without much fanfare.
Others That Could Fill the Belmont Field
If Journalism does enter, he will have ample betting support, just not history on his side. Since 2000, only four Preakness winners that ran in the Kentucky Derby have pulled off two consecutive triumphs. And two of them were Triple Crown champions, American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018).
Noted trainer Todd Pletcher is deciding to run one or two horses, Credo and Grande. Credo was the Sir Barton Stakes winner, and Grande was 2nd at the Wood Memorial, who later scratched for the Derby.
Lastly, Captain Cook ran third at the Peter Pan. The present thinking from this trio, one might finish at the bottom rung of a trifecta or superfecta.
Final Thoughts
Sovereignty ran an impressive-looking five furlongs in 1:02.45 on May 24 at Saratoga, according to Mike Welch of DFR.com. Trainer Bill Mott described the workout as “very good.”
Make a point to see our official Belmont Stakes full preview the week of the race, with free picks as we hit both exactas in each race and a trifecta (Derby).
