This probably wasn’t going to be Lamar Jackson’s year.
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback was the +500 favorite on the NFL MVP odds board heading into the preseason, but that still meant Jackson was being given one chance in six (16.67%) to claim his third AP Most Valuable Player Award.
Now it’s more like 2.17%, with Jackson falling to +4500 after hurting his hamstring in Week 4.
Add Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (down from +900 to +3500) to the injured pile – although he did make his return Monday night – and you’re left with a three-horse race on the MVP odds tracker.
The writers and broadcasters on the 50-member AP panel have gone with quarterbacks every year since 2013. All three of our top contenders are QBs; so are the Top 10, even the Top 20 at most online sportsbooks.
2025-26 NFL MVP Players to Watch
Given the way the national sports media structures its annual MVP conversation, it’ll take some Hall of Fame-worthy production from someone like Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson to snatch this year’s award.
Instead, taking a look at the current NFL MVP odds, we should expect one of the following three gentlemen to win:
| Player | Odds | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +175 | |
| Patrick Mahomes | +300 | |
| Baker Mayfield | +450 |
Buffalo Bill’s QB Josh Allen (+175)
The NFL odds you see listed here were posted before the Bills visited the Falcons on Monday Night Football. So don’t be surprised if Allen’s profile takes a small hit after he threw a pair of interceptions in Buffalo’s 24-14 loss as 4-point road faves, knocking the Bills down to 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season.
Even more worrying for Buffalo fans, they saw several of Allen’s teammates get hurt Monday night:
- DT DaQuan Jones (calf) didn’t even survive the pregame workout
- LB Terrel Bernard (ankle) and CB Christian Benford (Achilles) left the field during the first half.
- WR Josh Palmer (ankle) also joined the long list of injured players on Buffalo’s offense.
League MVP might be an individual award, but football is still a team sport, and Allen needs his teammates as much as they need him.
Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (+300)
Mahomes is the LeBron James of the NFL; he might not win the MVP every year, but he’s the alpha dog as far as the betting public is concerned – and still in his prime, unlike James.
That will keep Mahomes in the MVP conversation as long as Kansas City (3-3 SU and ATS) stays in the title hunt. However, they might not at this rate.
Mahomes isn’t leading the league in any of the major QB stats, as he did when he last won this award in 2022. He hasn’t even engineered any of those crazy fourth-quarter comebacks or game-winning drives that saved Kansas City’s bacon last year.
Let’s see some of that magic again before we get too excited about Mahomes for MVP.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield (+450)
After watching all seven hours of NFL RedZone football this past Sunday, I can only assume Mayfield is the “real” favorite in this race. His name seemed to cross more lips than anyone else’s.
The Buccaneers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are on top of the NFC South because of Mayfield’s heroics; it’s certainly not their defense, which ranked No. 21 in the league at plus-0.03 EPA through Week 5.
Is it sustainable? Mayfield already has four of those game-winning drives, but those are the only QB categories he’s leading at press time – and he’s playing behind the league’s No. 29-ranked offensive line at Pro Football Focus. Buffalo’s ranks No. 4; Kansas City’s ranks No. 5.
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
Given the chatter surrounding Mayfield and the difference in the payouts, it might be worth a flyer putting Mayfield in your NFL picks – or you could put a couple of bucks on the aforementioned Daniels now that he’s a long shot.
In the meantime, check out the full range of NFL player futures at Bookmakers Review to see which awards are up for grabs, and which sportsbook has the best price for your chosen targets.
Shop Smart, Shop at Bookmakers Review
If you decide to put Daniels in your MVP picks, Bovada has the best price at +3500 as I write this; again, these odds can and likely will change after Week 6 is officially put to rest, so make sure you’ve signed up for accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
That’s how the pros do it; take a page from their playbook, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
