The stars of the WTA are in action in the round of 16 at the Porsche Grand Prix in Stuttgart. There are many top players left in this WTA 500 event. Let’s take a look at the path that these players have to take to advance in the tournament and be the winning WTA picks.
Elena Rybakina vs. Paula Badosa
Thursday, April 21, 2022 – 06:30 AM EDT at Porsche-Arena
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina opened her tournament here in Stuttgart with a straightforward win against Nastasja Mariana Schunk. Schunk was able to test Rybakina. But in the end, Rybakina's power and consistency allowed her to get the victory.
Rybakina prevailed 7-6, 7-5. She struggled to land her first serve and landed only 51% of them. She however won 72% of those landed (36-50) and saved 78% of break points (7-9) she faced.
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Her powerful serve does not play the best on normal clay, but on this fast indoor clay of Stuttgart, it is definitely a weapon to be reckoned with.
In her post-match interview, Rybakina talked about the Wilson balls being heavier and not allowing her to reach her top levels of speed on the serve. This is an interesting tidbit for us to note as we continue handicapping this tournament in Stuttgart.
Elena Rybakina is a 22-year-old player who plays out of Kazakhstan. Rybakina is ranked 19th in the world. In an interesting turn of events, Rybakina actually grew up in Russia but uses the Kazakhstan flag because the Russian Federation did not select her to be one of their sponsored tennis players. So original rejection from Russia and the subsequent move to Kazakhstan is going to now allow Rybakina to play Wimbledon, while Russian and Belarusian players have been banned.
Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa is a 24-year-old Spanish player who is ranked number three in the world. Badosa is the reigning champion of Indian Wells. She won the Sydney Open to start her year. She also most recently made it to the quarterfinals in Miami and then the quarterfinals on the green clay of Charleston.
The green clay is similar to the clay here in Stuttgart in that it is less thick and plays faster, more similar to a hard court. Badosa's time in Charleston is good preparation for the way that the surface plays here today.
The Pick
I expect another close match between these two top women. I believe they have properly lined the odds on the side with Badosa being the favorite on the moneyline by WTA odds at -185. Therefore my favorite way to approach this match is by wagering on the total.
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Rybakina has an excellent serve but she still struggles to break. This is evident by her hold percentage of 81% with a break percentage of 31% (top WTA players usually break above 35%). Badosa also does an excellent job holding serve as well. She has a hold percentage of 71% and a break percentage of 41%.
All these statistics point me to a hard-fought match that will go over the total. My first bet for today's WTA event in Stuttgart is Elena Rybakina/Paula Badosa Over 21.5 games.
WTA Pick: Elena Rybakina/Paula Badosa Over 21.5 Games (-118) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Ons Jabeur vs. Daria Kasatkina
Thursday, April 21, 2022 - 08:00 AM EDT at Porsche-Arena
Ons Jabeur
Ons Jabeur prevailed in a hard-fought battle against Marketa Vondrousova in her first match here at Stuttgart. Jabeur dropped the first set but ended up getting the win 4-6, 6-2, 6-3. Vondrousova is an accomplished clay player so for Jabeur to get the win on Vondrousova's preferred surface shows she is in great form entering the clay season.
Of course, Iga Swiatek will be the favorite to win the French Open, but with Ash Barty gone, Ons Jabeur is now high on the list of favorites to win the event. Jabeur's crafty style of play and current form lends themselves well to having a strong season for this clay swing. Her start against top clay player Marketa Vondrousova illustrates that she is a top contender for any clay tournament she enters.
Daria Kasatkina
Daria Kasatkina defeated Coco Gauff in her opening match here in Stuttgart. Kasatkina was able to get the win in a strong performance 6-4, 6-2. She uses high bouncing topspin groundstrokes which place well on clay.
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Kasatkina was able to control court position by keeping Coco Gauff squarely behind the baseline. This aggressive court position allowed her to keep Gauff on the defensive and mitigate the strengths of Gauff's flatter, more powerful groundstrokes. Kasatkina will rely on her heavy topspin forehand to keep Ons Jabeur at bay today.
The Pick
As good as Ons Jabeur is playing, there is value at the best sportsbooks on the Daria Kasatkina moneyline. Kasatkina has the ability to do well on clay as her game perfectly translates. Her second serve will not be as much of an issue here as breaks happen the most frequently on clay courts. Kasatkina has the ability to beat anyone, especially players who cannot blow her off the court with powerful groundstrokes.
In a match that should have plenty of variety and tactical strategy, Kasatkina has a great chance to get the upset victory. Our second play for today's WTA Stuttgart event is Daria Kasatkina ML.
WTA Pick: Daria Kasatkina ML (+220) at Everygame
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
